Which flop you want?

[jlocdog]

I never cross post but I thought this could generate some decent discussion. This hand came up and afterwards I got into a great conversation with my friend about what flop I really wanted.

6 Handed....3/5NL

Effective stacks - $750

You are viewed as primarily TAG with the ability to take odd lines on occasion.

Both BTN and BB are your same ol' semi weak tight TAGs, who tend to miss value bets and/but can payoff thin.

You open from the CO with Q J offsuit to $20. BTN and BB call.

($63) K T 3 rainbow

or

($63) Q 7 5 rainbow

Which flop would you prefer and why? Does your decision change if you are have position?

[captainwacky]

well are you going to hit a nine or an ace? if not, then obviously Q75

[Requin]

KTx all day
The type of opponents you described almost never hit hard here and almost never stack off with one pair.

[jlocdog]

The 'WHY' part is very important.

[d2themfi]

the deeper you are the more I want to have the oesd, and vice versa

[terp]

[ QUOTE ]
the deeper you are the more I want to have the oesd, and vice versa

[/ QUOTE ]

probably generally true, but not a ton of significance against these opponents

[d2themfi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the deeper you are the more I want to have the oesd, and vice versa

[/ QUOTE ]

probably generally true, but not a ton of significance against these opponents

[/ QUOTE ]

dont get exactly what ur implying here, but Ill give it my best shot. I suppose you're saying that these opponents will pay off this deep with less than TPMK? Or that our expectation against guys who payoff too much is higher with top pair than with a draw to the nuts?

I think if we were a lot shallower the top pair would have a ton more value cause we might get stacks from TT, JJ, QT, Q9s assuming maybe 30bb or less. But this deep i think our top pair is gonna cause us some problems if we try to put more than maybe two streets of value in, where as our oesd can stack our opponent 1/3 of the time if we get to see two cards

[jlocdog]

Yes but your OESD can also lose you a big pot if you gamble and miss while your TP hand may win you a nice tidy pot often, no?

Not saying which I prefer just yet but the above statement can easily be a counter argument to yours.

[d2themfi]

Well, I kinda took the Op to mean that these guys will value top pair hands too much and call down too often with weak hands, which makes me think that your implied odds if you are raised or called on the flop are much higher with the oesd, which is good because we are 150bb deep.

I didnt mean we were gonna "gamble" and try to like get the oesd in on the flop or something.

I suppose the q high board will win a medium pot more often but it also has the potential to lose a medium to large pot as well, esp if we are flat called on the flop by the button and OOP for the turn and river(if we even made it that far)

The oesd is more deceptive which is beneficial to us since the pot is small compared to whats left to bet in our stacks

[mustmuck]

Can you clarify some things for me:
"semi weak tight TAGs, who tend to miss value bets and/but can payoff thin"

I may have this wrong, but "weak" to me means that the player is ready to fold a lot (rather than is a bad player exactly; doesn't payoff thin) and being aggressive (from TAG) means they value bet reasonably well (rather than being passive).