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#1
11-30-2006, 09:14 AM
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Two Plus Two For Two (Points)
I think the arguments fro the two point conversion attempt late in the game when down by eight, is strong enough and simple enough, that the public COULD be educated to the point that they would expect their teams to make the play. With a little help from us. Let's see if this internet community has gotten big and powerful enough to make a mark. Call ins to radio shows, letters to the editors, etc.
If the public sees that its right, the owners won't get heat if it backfires nor will they give heat to the coach. Let this be our first step in changing the world. Two Plus Two For Two. Who will print the bumber stickers? 
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#2
11-30-2006, 10:14 AM
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Re: Two Plus Two For Two (Points)
I think there are a number of assumptions that need to be proven in that thread before we take on this endeavor.
We need an exhaustive analysis of the possible "momentum" effects of missing a 2-pt conversion or the "momentum" effects on OT for a team that has scored 2 TDs in a row to tie. Dismissing this because it's just a coach's rationalization is not sufficient. Their decision being irrational doesn't make ours automatically rational. Also, what are the splits for home and road teams in OT, should home teams assume different winning percentages in the extra period? There's also the conversion rate. I'm assuming you posted the correct number (otherwise we've really got a problem), but according to another poster the break-even rate is .38, close enough to cause me concern. Suppose that going for 2 more often reduces your conversion rate because you can't use your "favorite" 2 pt play each time in the way that you could if you only do it once or twice the whole season. I'm all for this if we could prove it right but I think we're a far cry from having done so.
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#3
11-30-2006, 10:21 AM
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Re: Two Plus Two For Two (Points)
Also the more talented team seems likely to win the OT more often. So if your team is much better or worse than the other you need to factor that in as well. Perhaps a correlation between the pregame spread and OT winning % could be created, though if your game is close enough for OT it could be something other than typical variance (key players are hurt/sick/distracted, etc).
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#4
11-30-2006, 10:34 AM
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Re: Two Plus Two For Two (Points)
Fair enough. Although I am almost sure that the two point try is right the vast majority of the time, there can be no debate when the team is definitely no better than even in OT. Add that parameter to the others and we have precisely defined our cause.
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#6
11-30-2006, 04:52 PM
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Re: Two Plus Two For Two (Points)
[ QUOTE ]
I think the arguments fro the two point conversion attempt late in the game when down by eight, is strong enough and simple enough, that the public COULD be educated to the point that they would expect their teams to make the play. With a little help from us. Let's see if this internet community has gotten big and powerful enough to make a mark. Call ins to radio shows, letters to the editors, etc. If the public sees that its right, the owners won't get heat if it backfires nor will they give heat to the coach. Let this be our first step in changing the world. Two Plus Two For Two. Who will print the bumber stickers? [/ QUOTE ] I wasn't familiar with the consensus currently being to kick the XP when down by 8. Did you mean when down by 7?
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#7
11-30-2006, 04:57 PM
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Re: Two Plus Two For Two (Points)
[ QUOTE ]
I think the arguments fro the two point conversion attempt late in the game when down by eight, is strong enough and simple enough, that the public COULD be educated to the point that they would expect their teams to make the play. With a little help from us. Let's see if this internet community has gotten big and powerful enough to make a mark. Call ins to radio shows, letters to the editors, etc. If the public sees that its right, the owners won't get heat if it backfires nor will they give heat to the coach. Let this be our first step in changing the world. Two Plus Two For Two. Who will print the bumber stickers? [/ QUOTE ] Yeah but david, he blew the spread!
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#9
11-30-2006, 05:06 PM
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Re: Two Plus Two For Two (Points)
I'm also confused, if there is < 5 min left and a team scores a TD down by 8, I think almost every coach in the world goes for 2 and everyone expects this, including the announcers.
The interesting scenarios regarding 1 vs 2 are when a team is down say 8 or 11 with along time left, say a whole quarter or half. And also when an inferior team is down 7 and scores very late. Should they take the almost sure OT or take the shot at winning.
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#10
11-30-2006, 05:21 PM
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Re: Two Plus Two For Two (Points)
The debate is about whether to go for 2 when down by 8 after scoring a touchdown (i.e. you were down by 14 before scoring). Assuming that you'll score again later, is it better to kick the XP twice for a near guarantee of overtime or to try for 2 after the first score? If you make it, you'll win in regulation. If you miss it, you go for 2 again on the second score and still have a chance to force OT. Based on the assumptions that 2-point conversions succeed at a constant rate of 42% and each team is 50/50 to win in OT, going for two is mathematically correct.
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