Bodog Politics Props

centris · #1 07-06-2007, 06:18 PM

Bodog just added a number of politics props. I was thinking we could discuss some of them within this thread. I will start

Will President Bush issue a Full pardon to Lewis 'Scooter' Libby before the end of 2007? No +175

Monday night, just before he would have had to report to jail, Bush commuted Libby's 30 month prison sentence for lying to a grand jury. This left intact the 250k fine, 2 yr probation and felony conviction on his record, which would prevent him from praticing law. For this reason some people think Bush could sometime in the future offer a full pardon, and Tony Snow explicity stated that Bush was leaving in this option open. Even if Bush does this some time in the future, which he probably will, there are some reasons I do not think it will be before the end of 2007.

1) Historical Precedent In recent administrations pardons have come very late in the term, specifically after the presidential election. This was true of George HW Bush who pardoned six people related to the Iran-Contra thing on Dec 24 of 1992, and Clinton issued his pardons on the last day he was in office. If Bush does the same he will not start pardoning until after Nov 2008. Bush could not wait until then to commute Libby's sentence because then he would have had to spend from now to then in prison.

2. Libby continues his appeals When Libby is pardoned the felony is expunded from his record, since the sentence was commuted the felony is still on his record so he can appeal it. This is benefical to Bush/Libby/Cheney because it allows him to plead the fifth in any future congressional investigations into the Plame scandal. Also it allows for the possiblity that the conviction is overturned in appeal getting rid of the need for an unpopular pardon.

3. Wait until after the election As outlined in 1. unpopular pardons are often done after the election to prevent putting candidates in the president's party in the uncomfortable position of being asked if they support the pardon. And more generally the pardon before the election could hurt republican congressional canidates.

So I went with No +175. I really think this is good to like No -200. But I would like to hear from other people.

I would also like to hear what people have to think about some of the other ones.

cefis21 · #2 07-06-2007, 11:46 PM

Great heads up on a great play! All Bush did was stop Libby's prison time which he thought was too harsh. This is far from a pardon..for now. The pardon will come when Bush leaves office in 2008. No need for GW to pardon him now or in the next 6 months. Thanks for the heads up!

dudeimstoked · #3 07-07-2007, 02:32 AM

I agree. I didn't max it, but am considering it.

cefis21 · #4 07-07-2007, 05:22 AM

I wouldn't wait to long. There's no way those odds are going to hold up by Saturday night (7/7)!

Bishop22 · #5 07-07-2007, 09:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Bet On: If Mike Bloomberg runs for President in 2008 what percentage of the popular vote will he garner?

Mike Bloomberg must make a formal announcement stating he will run for Yes to be the winner . Max. $50.
Over 18.8%

-130
Under 18.8%

-110

[/ QUOTE ]

Freeish money here.. Perot had a lot a steam in '92 to get 19%. Once he elects to run, the under will win even if he doesn't end up on the ballot, the wording on the fine print is a little strange but that is standard for Bodog props.

wheatrich · #6 07-07-2007, 12:35 PM

that one's off

but I saw this one

Bet On: Will the Presidential Candidate who wins the Electoral College also win the popular vote?

The candidate that wins the EC must also win the popular vote for Yes to be the winner. Max. $50.

Yes -400
No who cares

(it's only happened twice ever)

However tying up that kind of money till the end of 08? Yikes.

bot1478 · #7 07-07-2007, 01:04 PM

I gree that both Bloomberg 18.*% and electoral college/pop vote seem like free money. But 18 months is along time. That is probably the right odds for "will BODOG be in business when its time to collect". Not saying i think they are going anywhere, but the industry is volatile enough it seems like that is really what you are wagering on.

letsgojuniors · #8 07-07-2007, 01:52 PM

I think I'd just get sick of seeing them in my "Open Bets" list after a while.

fightingcoward · #9 07-09-2007, 03:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Bet On: If Mike Bloomberg runs for President in 2008 what percentage of the popular vote will he garner?

Mike Bloomberg must make a formal announcement stating he will run for Yes to be the winner . Max. $50.
Over 18.8%

-130
Under 18.8%

-110

[/ QUOTE ]

Freeish money here.. Perot had a lot a steam in '92 to get 19%. Once he elects to run, the under will win even if he doesn't end up on the ballot, the wording on the fine print is a little strange but that is standard for Bodog props.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure how this is free money... Bloomberg is way richer then Perot, and has had much more political success. I Would think he will top Perot without any trouble if he decides he wants to win.

vilemerchant · #10 07-09-2007, 03:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Bet On: If Mike Bloomberg runs for President in 2008 what percentage of the popular vote will he garner?

Mike Bloomberg must make a formal announcement stating he will run for Yes to be the winner . Max. $50.
Over 18.8%

-130
Under 18.8%

-110

[/ QUOTE ]

Freeish money here.. Perot had a lot a steam in '92 to get 19%. Once he elects to run, the under will win even if he doesn't end up on the ballot, the wording on the fine print is a little strange but that is standard for Bodog props.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure how this is free money... Bloomberg is way richer then Perot, and has had much more political success. I Would think he will top Perot without any trouble if he decides he wants to win.

[/ QUOTE ]
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