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#1
08-26-2007, 04:37 PM
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Man Utd to win 3+ trophies - help me find a good line
A friend wants to bet on United to win 3+ trophies (out of: the Premiership, FA Cup, League Cup, Champions League, UEFA Cup, UEFA Super Cup). I've offered him 35-1, i.e. 36.0, +3500 I think this means in American terms.
Is this a good line for me? What is a fair line for this? Here are some related lines on Betfair: to win FA Cup: 2nd fav 4.9 to win Premiership: 2nd fav 4.1 to win CL: 7.6 to win Carling Cup: 6.2 They are highly unlikely to be in the UEFA Cup (barring a disastrous run early in the Champions League). The UEFA Super Cup is contested by the winnner of the Champions League and the winner of the UEFA Cup, so if they win the Champions League they are odds on for the Super Cup. Obviously the competitions are not independent events and if they are still in the late stages of the Champions League and in contention for the Premiership title, the fixture congestion may force some squad rotation. We've already seen this season how they are struggling without Rooney and Ronaldo and that they may have relied on them too much last season. This post is long enough already. Anyone like to guess at a fair line for the same bet for Chelsea? Liverpool? 
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#2
08-26-2007, 08:29 PM
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Re: Man Utd to win 3+ trophies - help me find a good line
if you convert these to probabilities of winning (A,B,C,D), you should be able to figure out the chance of winning 3+ by ABC + ABD + ACD + BCD and then convert it back to an odds line. may be a simpler fashion but that'll get you there.
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#4
08-27-2007, 03:37 AM
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Re: Man Utd to win 3+ trophies - help me find a good line
[ QUOTE ]
if you convert these to probabilities of winning (A,B,C,D), you should be able to figure out the chance of winning 3+ by ABC + ABD + ACD + BCD and then convert it back to an odds line. may be a simpler fashion but that'll get you there. [/ QUOTE ] well as I said I don't think you can consider the events to be independent, they will have a lesser chance of winning the premiership if they are still in all three competitions come April. Also they can only win the Super Cup if they win the Champions League (or in an exceptional case, the UEFA Cup). Also, I don't think that formula is correct anyway since this counts ABCD multiple times.
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