+EV bet fading the NFC/AFC West

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Currently you can take the no bet on the Chargers winning the Super Bowl on Pinny at -265. I wanted to get some feeback on a possible bet I want to make to fade the Chargers at better value.

I currently have some money down on the NFC/AFC East to produce the Super Bowl winner at +400. I can also get the NFC/AFC South at +400 (Colts and Saints) and NFC/AFC North (Bears and Ravens) at +220.

Only the Chiefs or Chargers will come out of the AFC, if they make it that far, and I think the Seahawks have to be less than +1000 to win the NFC. Am I missing something here or can I essentially make a + value fade of the Chargers (and Seahawks/Chiefs for that matter) at better than around -200?

Chargers/Seahawks and Chiefs odds to win the Super Bowl are +248/+3408/+5000 respectively on Pinny.

Once I take out the juice and change to percentages, I get the Chargers at 26.12%, the Seahawks at 2.59% and the Chiefs at 1.78%. That's a total of 31.39% chance of the teams I fade winning. So that puts my risk of ruin at 31.39%; however I would be getting a pretty good shot with the Colts, Pats, Saints, Ravens and Bears covered in addition to the 3 NFC East teams and the Jets.

Thanks in Advance,

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