PokerFink's 2007 NFC Rankings (Week 11)

[PokerFink]

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But the NFC is so weak that you could put PHL 6th. At this point, I think that that they make the playoffs 50% of the time.

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That's being really optimistic.

[Jeff W]

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b) they rank 9th in generating turnovers and 2nd at not turning it over (per drive), which don’t factor directly into total yards and points.

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Disagree with this... turnovers do factor directly into total yards and points. If you turn it over, you lose the expected yards and points you'd get on the drive and your opponent's gain yards and points from receiving an extra opportunity.

[Pudge714]

That Arizona loss to San Fransisco is bugging me so much, if not for that I would be rolling in sklansky bux right now with NFL Futures.

[PokerFink]

Ok, I just spent about five minutes trying to figure out whether it's a direct or indirect cause, then gave up and just decided it doesn't matter anyway.

[Troll_Inc]

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But the NFC is so weak that you could put PHL 6th. At this point, I think that that they make the playoffs 50% of the time.

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That's being really optimistic.

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So the first wildcard spot would go to the Giants at 7-3. They look legit but are by no means a lock. I'd say 75% to make playoffs.

The Lions have the other spot at 6-4 and have lost 2 in a row. Have to play GB twice, Dallas at home and SD on the road.

Washington at 5-5 also has lost 3 out of last 4 and has to play at Tampa and at the Giants then finish with Dallas. I guess they could hope that Dallas has clinched homefield but I find it hard to believe that Dallas gives away a game to such a rival.

I like Arizona's schedule at 5-5, but there's a nonzero chance that Arizona wins their division instead and there is no wildcard.

And I would say that there is no more of a chance that someone else makes the playoffs, or this is roughly equal to the chance of the Giants not making the playoffs.

So yeah, I'd guess that the Eagles have 3-4 ducats of a chance out of 10 to get that last spot. So about 1/3 the time the Eagles should make the playoffs. 50% was a bit high.

[PokerFink]

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That Arizona loss to San Fransisco is bugging me so much, if not for that I would be rolling in sklansky bux right now with NFL Futures.

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Yeah, it's a shame they never made up for it by beating a top tier team like Pittsburgh.

[PokerFink]

FO Playoff Odds Report

Playoff Chances

New York - 86%
Arizona - 54%
Washington - 25%
Philadelphia - 18%
Detroit - 14%
New Orleans - 9%

[Troll_Inc]

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FO Playoff Odds Report

Playoff Chances

New York - 86%
Arizona - 54%
Washington - 25%
Philadelphia - 18%
Detroit - 14%
New Orleans - 9%

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I only looked through their rating system briefly, but it looks like it takes the whole season into account? That might work for baseball, but I bet it is way less predictive in football where injuries and where momentum/streaks are more prevalent.

[Tyler Durden]

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Pretty solid list. The only two teams I *might* think about switching up would be Detroit and Washington.

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?? Washington spanked Detroit 34-3. Yeah I realize it's projective but the Redskins hold the tiebreaker while the Lions have a bitch of a schedule.

[PokerFink]

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I only looked through their rating system briefly, but it looks like it takes the whole season into account? That might work for baseball, but I bet it is way less predictive in football where injuries and where momentum/streaks are more prevalent.

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Injuries are a real problem for outsiders, because they've never figured out a way to effectively include them in the system. Like any statistic, it should be used as a general guide, not a steadfast rule. But if it says the Eagles are 18% to make the playoffs, then it's apparent that saying 50% is being way too optimistic.

And I'm not buying the momentum thing at all. I think momentum is the same type of thing as clutch: something that's often talked about as important but doesn't actually exist.