AQ mid stages 24+2 (24k Gauranteed FTP)

[Dave D]

So I think this is pretty standard.

I had been fairly active lately as the deck had been hitting me well. I am dogling in this hand btw.

A couple hands previous this had happened:

Full Tilt Poker Game #3524510739: $24,000 Guarantee (26393167), Table 97 - 120/240 Ante 25 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:42:39 ET - 2007/09/10
Seat 1: livinlegnd (7,060)
Seat 2: ACC2003 (4,830)
Seat 3: The Infamous666 (3,060)
Seat 4: savant111 (3,412)
Seat 5: nacolerm (3,200)
Seat 6: dd334 (3,870)
Seat 7: dogling (19,225)
Seat 8: PokerBurn69 (9,040)
Seat 9: Lry06 (10,775)

ACC2003 posts the small blind of 120
The Infamous666 posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #1

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dogling [Ad Qh]
savant111 folds
nacolerm folds
dd334 folds
dogling raises to 720
PokerBurn69 folds
Lry06 folds
livinlegnd has 15 seconds left to act
livinlegnd folds
ACC2003 calls 600
The Infamous666 raises to 3,035, and is all in
dogling raises to 19,200, and is all in
ACC2003 folds
dogling shows [Ad Qh]
The Infamous666 shows [Kc Ah]
Uncalled bet of 16,165 returned to dogling



Now this happens. Deja Vu? I'm pretty sure I'm getting the right odds even giving villian a higher chances of having AK than normal. Especially hoping the other villian calls.

Full Tilt Poker Game #3524542645: $24,000 Guarantee (26393167), Table 97 - 120/240 Ante 25 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:45:30 ET - 2007/09/10
Seat 1: livinlegnd (6,385)
Seat 2: ACC2003 (4,035)
Seat 3: The Infamous666 (6,845)
Seat 4: savant111 (2,497)
Seat 5: nacolerm (4,550)
Seat 6: dd334 (3,795)
Seat 7: dogling (16,700)
Seat 8: PokerBurn69 (8,965)
Seat 9: Lry06 (10,700)

nacolerm posts the small blind of 120
dd334 posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #4

Dealt to dogling [Qd Ac]
dogling has 15 seconds left to act
dogling raises to 960
PokerBurn69 folds
Lry06 folds
livinlegnd folds
ACC2003 calls 960
The Infamous666 raises to 6,820, and is all in
savant111 folds
nacolerm folds
dd334 folds
dogling has 15 seconds left to act

[erc007]

[ QUOTE ]
Now this happens. Deja Vu? I'm pretty sure I'm getting the right odds even giving villian a higher chances of having AK than normal. Especially hoping the other villian calls.

Full Tilt Poker Game #3524542645: $24,000 Guarantee (26393167), Table 97 - 120/240 Ante 25 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:45:30 ET - 2007/09/10
Seat 1: livinlegnd (6,385)
Seat 2: ACC2003 (4,035)
Seat 3: The Infamous666 (6,845)
Seat 4: savant111 (2,497)
Seat 5: nacolerm (4,550)
Seat 6: dd334 (3,795)
Seat 7: dogling (16,700)
Seat 8: PokerBurn69 (8,965)
Seat 9: Lry06 (10,700)

nacolerm posts the small blind of 120
dd334 posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #4

Dealt to dogling [Qd Ac]
dogling has 15 seconds left to act
dogling raises to 960
PokerBurn69 folds
Lry06 folds
livinlegnd folds
ACC2003 calls 960
The Infamous666 raises to 6,820, and is all in
savant111 folds
nacolerm folds
dd334 folds
dogling has 15 seconds left to act

[/ QUOTE ]

Do u think that "the infamous'" range includes squeezes with SC's and sm PP's? It seems like the 1st hand + you being UTG + ACC2003 calling 25% of his stack, should tell him that he doesn't have much/if any FE against your ranges here. You're in pretty bad shape against his RR'ing range and prob slightly behind the caller's range as well. I also don't think that his shove here increases the chance that he as AK, as he should be shoving his entire RR'ing range, not just AK. This seems like a std fold to me.

[dxu05]

First HH is standard. Second HH is fold without read tagged as "complete idiot." Rationale for folding second HH is chip preservation. While mathematically you gain an ~1900 chip edge in terms of excess equity in favor, you are also sacrificing intangible value of future stolen chips in relation to stack size.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
First HH is standard. Second HH is fold without read tagged as "complete idiot." Rationale for folding second HH is chip preservation. While mathematically you gain an ~1900 chip edge in terms of excess equity in favor, you are also sacrificing intangible value of future stolen chips in relation to stack size.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please do a lot of reading, this makes no sense.

If something is +EV we do it.

[anotherFliplost]

Fold without some super read. He's not in a squeezing position, so you're likely up against 88+, AKo, AKs (33% equity or cEV of about -900). You'd have to bring AJs and AJo into his range to make this +EV.

[BarryLyndon]

What's up with the 4xBB raise UTG with AQo. If you made it ~T600, you'd have an easier time playing this hand preflop and post flop.

Don't fall for the "He's 3-betting me all-in twice, thus he's FOS" trap, because that's not all that logical. His stack is bigger. You're raising from UTG. You have AQ. Fold. I know it's hard, because I do it all the time with AQ, but how many times do you need to see AK or QQ in this spot before you realize that it's AQ and you need to fold it? Also, Dave, you SHOWED AQ the last hand, so, he knows you probably have something strong. He's not gonna be thinking "well, now he has AJ or 55 and I can take him off his hand on a squeeze play." No. Fold.

Barry

[Thegunshow]

[ QUOTE ]
What's up with the 4xBB raise UTG with AQo. If you made it ~T600, you'd have an easier time playing this hand preflop and post flop.

Don't fall for the "He's 3-betting me all-in twice, thus he's FOS" trap, because that's not all that logical. His stack is bigger. You're raising from UTG. You have AQ. Fold. I know it's hard, because I do it all the time with AQ, but how many times do you need to see AK or QQ in this spot before you realize that it's AQ and you need to fold it? Also, Dave, you SHOWED AQ the last hand, so, he knows you probably have something strong. He's not gonna be thinking "well, now he has AJ or 55 and I can take him off his hand on a squeeze play." No. Fold.

Barry

[/ QUOTE ]


Agreed 100%

[Stumpy]

Why is there a higher chance of AK than normal?

And you're not getting the right odds.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
What's up with the 4xBB raise UTG with AQo. If you made it ~T600, you'd have an easier time playing this hand preflop and post flop.

Don't fall for the "He's 3-betting me all-in twice, thus he's FOS" trap, because that's not all that logical. His stack is bigger. You're raising from UTG. You have AQ. Fold. I know it's hard, because I do it all the time with AQ, but how many times do you need to see AK or QQ in this spot before you realize that it's AQ and you need to fold it? Also, Dave, you SHOWED AQ the last hand, so, he knows you probably have something strong. He's not gonna be thinking "well, now he has AJ or 55 and I can take him off his hand on a squeeze play." No. Fold.

Barry

[/ QUOTE ]

I've said before that I hate to raise 2.5x, ever. Especially in that position, especially at this point of the tourney. People just get too good odds to call with too many hands.

Also, I want to protect AQ, I'm fairly happy winning the blinds in that position.

TT and JJ push here too you know.

I doubt he has AA/KK here because he's overbetting so much. AA/KK calls, or minraises, or raises less than all in because he wants me to call.

I mean there's always the chance he's FOS, but I did discount it heavily beause I know he was probably trying to level me and overbet push to make it look weak etc.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is there a higher chance of AK than normal?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just thought it was slightly more likely because he did this last time with AK. Also it makes sense to push AK here.

[ QUOTE ]
And you're not getting the right odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've gotta call 6k to win like 11.5k I think. That's almost 2:1. Even if I'm up against QQ, KK/AK, I'm only a 70/30 dog which is basically my worst case. I realize it's slightly -EV if I knew that as his range, but when you throw in JJ/TT/stealing junk whatever I think it's +EV.