pair + draw vs spewtard

[EC10]

[ QUOTE ]


Board: 5c 4d 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.965% 54.16% 00.81% 21447 319.00 { 6d6h }
Hand 1: 45.035% 44.23% 00.81% 17515 319.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }



[/ QUOTE ]
jesus i had no idea that 66 would be a favorite over that range. i thought it'd be like 70-30 against us.

i should probably play around with pokerstove or something sometimes.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Board: 5c 4d 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.965% 54.16% 00.81% 21447 319.00 { 6d6h }
Hand 1: 45.035% 44.23% 00.81% 17515 319.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }



[/ QUOTE ]
jesus i had no idea that 66 would be a favorite over that range. i thought it'd be like 70-30 against us.

i should probably play around with pokerstove or something sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it's mostly because theres so many more AK possibilities, but still, if I'm 95% sure of these hands, I dunno about pushing, since AK may not be calling another 4500 with just the perceived gut and overs. Obv, that goes MORE towards the check/shove since you win without showdown, but the hands that DO call you almost every time have you in kinda bad shape


Board: 5c 4d 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.687% 37.88% 00.81% 9000 192.00 { 6d6h }
Hand 1: 61.313% 60.51% 00.81% 14376 192.00 { JJ+ }



Obviously, you could work some frequency distribution to figure this all out better, but while in a vacuum I think this is a pretty =EV, high variance play, for metagame purposes and such I probably check/shove this a good % of the time.


FWIW, I can't see how he has JJ+, AK 95% of the time. I'm about the biggest nit there is and my PFRR/PSB range isn't CLOSE to this narrow. "Spewtards" could show up here with hands that have you worse off that 37/63.

[nycballer]

i can't believe im the first one to say this but c/r to something like 2700. all in sucks, AK folds and the overpairs will always call

[DLizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
i can't believe im the first one to say this but c/r to something like 2700. all in sucks, AK folds and the overpairs will always call

[/ QUOTE ]

disagree, i think AK is more likely to call a shove than to shove over or call a raise to 2700.

[mrcoughman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i can't believe im the first one to say this but c/r to something like 2700. all in sucks, AK folds and the overpairs will always call

[/ QUOTE ]

disagree, i think AK is more likely to call a shove than to shove over or call a raise to 2700.

[/ QUOTE ]

aren't you guys agreeing?

[DLizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i can't believe im the first one to say this but c/r to something like 2700. all in sucks, AK folds and the overpairs will always call

[/ QUOTE ]

disagree, i think AK is more likely to call a shove than to shove over or call a raise to 2700.

[/ QUOTE ]

aren't you guys agreeing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't we want him to get it in with his entire range including AK and not just the hands that beat us?

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
i can't believe im the first one to say this but c/r to something like 2700. all in sucks, AK folds and the overpairs will always call

[/ QUOTE ]

didnt u see the pokerstove? who cares? not like a smaller raise has less or more FE against his range. and i think he's more likely to continue with Ak if we shove, but again, doesnt really matter.

[irockhoess]

i think you are almost guaranteed the equity against his range you put him on. someone above said he might have you worse than 36/64 or whatever. this is really never the case since bad players dont 3 bet with small suited connectors or small pocket pairs with position. they try to "flop big and win a big pot"

[innerpeace]

quick mental calculations suggest that the decision here is pretty close depending on a number of factors:
1. how close his range is weighted towards AK vs JJ+
2. how much he bets if you check (since this affects what you win if you push and he folds).
3. the likelihood that he actually calls with AK.
4. potential fold equity vs. JJ+
5. small chance that he has something other than a premium hand and folds.

if he makes a psb on the flop and you think he is equally likely to do so with hands in the AK and JJ+ range, then pushing is clearly the correct play. even if he folds AK and calls JJ+, you win about 40% of the time and there is enough in the pot for fold equity to matter.

on the other hand, if you think he is slightly more likely to have JJ+ than AK -- even if it's 70/30 vs. 60/40, then pushing is closer to even money if not slightly negative.