50NL: AA facing pot sized river bet

[O.T.G.]

Villain was 27/11/1. The turn check was a misclick which I am still pissed about, but it happened and I still had a tough decision on the river.

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($48.25)
CO ($45.75)
Button ($8.40)
SB ($43.50)
BB ($76.70)
UTG ($54.50)
UTG+1 ($116.80)
MP1 ($51.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls $4.25.

Flop: ($12.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $9</font>, UTG+1 calls $9.

Turn: ($30.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

River: ($30.75) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $30.75</font>, Hero ????

[CalledDownLight]

shove

[LGs0pHT]

Fold.

Although you beat AK it is very unlikely that he calls the flop with it.

He raises 11% preflop so he calls your reraise with AK, TT-QQ and pushes with KK+. 22-99 he limp calls.

Now since he is not a complete maniac or moron he is very likely to have JJ given his line.

QQ bluff and AK are the only two you can beat, and I think they don't appear often enough in that spot to make a call or shove profitable in this spot.