50NL - All-in preflop with JJ?

K䲰䮥n · #1 06-04-2007, 06:43 AM

Villain is 42/26. He has no positional awareness. This is my third 3-bet vs him in a short perioid. The first he folded, the second he called (and folded to my cbet).

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($46.95)
SB ($101.80)
BB ($52)
UTG ($53.30)
MP ($86)
CO ($24.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises to $2, CO calls $2, Hero raises to $9.25, 2 folds, MP calls $84 (All-In), CO folds, Hero calls $37.70 (All-In).

Feroc · #2 06-04-2007, 07:32 AM

I wouldn't call. The best you can have is 50/50 if you are vs. AK or AQ. But as you said: the last time he folded or only called. Even a 46/26 has Kings or Aces sometimes. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

marvin_1935 · #3 06-04-2007, 07:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't call. The best you can have is 50/50 if you are vs. AK or AQ. But as you said: the last time he folded or only called. Even a 46/26 has Kings or Aces sometimes. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

i think karpanen is figuring that after being 3bet twice before in a short period of time villain's range is MUCH wider than QQ+ AQ+. if this is the case JJ is an insta call here

Feroc · #4 06-04-2007, 08:06 AM

I still think, that he easiely can have two overcards and I don't want to risk my money with a coin flip. Of course he also may have 99 to JJ... but I think it is too risky.

K䲰䮥n · #5 06-04-2007, 08:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I still think, that he easiely can have two overcards and I don't want to risk my money with a coin flip.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't EVER start playing STTs. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]

Of course he also may have 99 to JJ... but I think it is too risky.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think his range *might* be much wider than that. He being a sheriff or something like that. But his range isn't WIDE all the time. But occsasionally it is.

So in these spots is it wide often enough to justify this as a call. Coin flip -> good to go.

ama0330 · #6 06-04-2007, 08:26 AM

Id say you are calling to chop here, I'd probably fold. Its closer given your history, but I wasn't at the table. On paper, its a fold.

marvin_1935 · #7 06-04-2007, 08:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I still think, that he easiely can have two overcards and I don't want to risk my money with a coin flip. Of course he also may have 99 to JJ... but I think it is too risky.

[/ QUOTE ]

we only need 42% equity to make a call neutral ev. guess what!!

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

513,691,200 games 0.005 secs 102,738,240,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.600% 42.39% 00.21% 217768764 1063806.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 57.400% 57.19% 00.21% 293794824 1063806.00 { QQ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

what i meant by a wider range is: 22-AA, A9+ KQ and other randoms. well played karpanen

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,530,799,776 games 0.016 secs 95,674,986,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.164% 62.60% 00.56% 958266720 8641074.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 36.836% 36.27% 00.56% 555250908 8641074.00 { 22+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }