Assani vs the StatHeads: Evaluating NFL QBs

[Triumph36]

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No, you were talking about Harrison only. You made no mention of Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzales, or Tony Ugoh.

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The point is the exact same. And yes you're right that I didn't mention that those guys were out because I WASN'T TALKING ABOUT THAT GAME IN PARTICULAR. You are the one that brought up that one game in particular.Nevertheless, my point remains the same- Manning's great numbers are aided by a great supporting cast. When you give him a decent cast(which is what he had last night as Wayne and Addai are still solid weapons) he is good but not the best QB of all time.

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wtf kind of point is this? It's not a point at all. Take away Jerry Rice from Joe Montana and he's not that great either.


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Of course you don't. You threw it out there because it sounded good and supported your point, but you didn't really believe the specific example was relevant, did you?


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Ugh....look dude, I've come into this debate with an open mind to learn and I've asked others to do the same....obviously its hard to decipher "tone" on a message board, but it really sounds to me like you just want to prove yourself right and not look to truly find the best evaluation methods...I honestly have no desire to do that. If you want to "win" this argument, then fine- I concece, you win.

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Huh? You bring up a silly point about Vince Young controlling games, then when JoA challenges your contention, you say this? Using a one game example from Kerry Collins doesn't make any sense at all.

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I do think that offense effects defense and vice versa

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Ok, thats all I was ever saying(although you conveniently picked out two sentences of my paragraphs so that people might not see that).

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This isn't that obvious, but yes. See also: 'pace' in the NBA.

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In fact, with 8 interceptions in his last 5 games, Vince Young hasn't done much for anybody but opposing defenses.


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Statements like this are why I dislike the "stathead's" views so much.

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Right. Giving up 8 INTs in 5 games is bad, unless you're a player whom I carry a torch for, then it's good.

[Triumph36]

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No, you were talking about Harrison only. You made no mention of Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzales, or Tony Ugoh.

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the WR's last night were

Reggie Wayne
Aaron Morehead
Craphonso Thorpe

last year vs the Colts, Brady had

Doug Gabriel
Troy Brown
Reche Caldwell

the Colts group is still better. Wayne is a legit #1. Morehead is a jag, and Thorpe is an emergency level guy.

Gabriel is out of the NFL, Troy Brown is a decent possession guy but is years past his peak, and Reche Caldwell is on the Redskins but doesn't have a catch this year

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and Ben Watson, and both his left tackles were healthy.

we can go on all day like this.

[tdarko]

VY didn't play very good defense yesterday, MJD was running all over him.

[Billy Bibbit]

The Vince Young defense joke will never get old no matter how many times I hear it. It's almost as good as joke about how all black players are terrific athletes, all white players are "smart" players.

[VarlosZ]

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I don't know baseball that well, so would you mind going more in depth here and providing some examples.

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The focus on Batting Average, which, if you know a player's OBP and SLG, is virtually worthless. The focus on RBIs, which are far too context-dependent to tell you anything about the player -- you could put an outright poor batter in the cleanup spot for the Yankees or Red Sox (i.e., put him behind players who are always getting on base), and within a few years he'd develop a reputation as a "good RBI man" in some circles. The philosophy that it's more important to have speed at the top of a lineup than OBP. The focus on a H.S. or college players "tools," to the near exclusion of his stats.


If you want more controversial findings, there's the apparently very limited ability of a pitcher to influence the chance that a ball put into play falls for a hit. Also, the apparent lack of difference between Major League catchers in the ability to "call a game."

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Agreed, but I hope you don't think that I was saying that I'm basing my opinions off of "experts" like Skip Bayless, Michael Irvin, Chris Berman, etc.

Some people who I put into the "valuable opinions" group are even posters from this board....I'm not just blindly choosing well known tv personalities and following them.

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I know, but unless they've got good numbers they can point to as evidence, we're going to be skeptical. There were plenty of very smart baseball men who sincerely believed total nonsense.

[SL__72]

Very good post.

[Jack of Arcades]

But I was specifically talking about Peyton's last game, since

a) it will skew some of the stats and
b) Peyton was throwing to a guys like Craphonso Thorpe with no NFL receptions.

I was simply asking for the effects of the last game on his per game averages this year. I'll now provide them. Coming into last night's game, Peyton was averaging:

257 yards, 1.75 TDs, 64.8%, .5 INTs,

That doesn't look significantly different than 06, does it? His yards and touchdowns are down, but they're virtually identical once you adjust for pass attempts.

Sure, perhaps losing Marvin Harrison will affect Peyton, and perhaps we saw that last night. But it's hard to tell since the Peyton lost Harrison AND his left tackle, AND his tight end, AND his slot wide receiver.

Anyay, here was your exact quote..

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Like I said, its a small sample size. However it would point towards Manning not being quite as good with Harrison. Obviously hes still a great QB though.

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You acknowledge it's flimsy and a small sample, yet still draw a conclusion from it. Really, the only difference has been one game, and it's hard to even place blame on that one.

But by posting it's a small sample yet drawing a conclusion you're doing two things:

1) Asserting that you're right, even if your conclusion is invalid
2) Giving yourself an out to back out of that statement if your conclusion is invalid.

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Ugh....look dude, I've come into this debate with an open mind to learn and I've asked others to do the same....obviously its hard to decipher "tone" on a message board, but it really sounds to me like you just want to prove yourself right and not look to truly find the best evaluation methods...I honestly have no desire to do that. If you want to "win" this argument, then fine- I concece, you win.

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I'm just trying to pinpoint what exactly you're arguing. Your TEN/HOU example was misleading. You called the game a "total shootout," and ignored the fact that the game was 32-7 after 3 quarters. I asked if the offensive gameplan led to Tennessee giving up 29 points in one quarter, and you knew it would be ridiculous to say yes so you didn't.

Now why did you post the example in the first place? On its face it sounds good, but when you even half-way look at it, the example falls flat on its face. Despite changing the gameplan from a ball control, no risk offense, the Tennesse Titans held the ball for 34 of the first 45 minutes.

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To further my point about gameplan....

If I asked the "stat heads" what were VY's best games this season, they would probably say the Indy and N.O. games in which VY put up a 95.3 and 97.5 QB rating, 3 TDs, and only 1 INT. Do you think its a total coincidence that N.O. and Indy have high powered offenses and the Titans probably knew coming into those games that they'd have to open up their offense a bit to keep up? I don't.

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In the Indianapolis game, the Titans fell behind early. However, in their first drive, with the score 0-0, the Titans threw once and ran seven times. That shouldn't surprise anyone - everyone tries to run the ball on the Colts to keep Peyton off the field. The Titans started passing when they fell behind.

Meanwhile, New Orleans can't defend the pass.

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Statements like this are why I dislike the "stathead's" views so much.

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Why? Look, if Vince Young's stats suck because it's his job to play it safe, then what does it say about him when he can't do that?

[Assani Fisher]

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wtf kind of point is this? It's not a point at all. Take away Jerry Rice from Joe Montana and he's not that great either.

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My point is that when you give Manning the type of WRs that Brady has always had, his stats don't kill Brady's.


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Right. Giving up 8 INTs in 5 games is bad, unless you're a player whom I carry a torch for, then it's good.

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Do you want to seriously debate or just throw out sarcastic lines? As I already said, I want to improve my ability to evaluate football while helping other's do the same. Some here have expressed interest in doing this...you apparently just want to "win" the argument...well, you win because I give up.


99,956 and counting

[Spellmen]

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No, you were talking about Harrison only. You made no mention of Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzales, or Tony Ugoh.

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the WR's last night were

Reggie Wayne
Aaron Morehead
Craphonso Thorpe

last year vs the Colts, Brady had

Doug Gabriel
Troy Brown
Reche Caldwell

the Colts group is still better. Wayne is a legit #1. Morehead is a jag, and Thorpe is an emergency level guy.

Gabriel is out of the NFL, Troy Brown is a decent possession guy but is years past his peak, and Reche Caldwell is on the Redskins but doesn't have a catch this year

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I don't disagree with you on evaluation of the cast, but Brady had these guys all year. Obviously I'm not positive, but I don't think Manning is working with Craphonso weekly on timing routes, this makes a big difference. The Colts couldn't even run their no huddle because all the new personnel couldn't handle it, that's also a big deal. There really is no basis for comparison for Manning in that game and Brady with a mediocre supporting cast last year

[Assani Fisher]

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Assani,
Watching games can be really good indicators if two things are true.
A) You are very good at anaaysing football and determining valiue
B) You have enough time to watch every single game.

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Going back to this point.....

I'm not claiming that I have any great evaluation ability. All I'm saying is that watching the game gives you a lot more insight. Statheads will blindly cite stats like "play X has thrown for 2 TDs and 10 INTs in the past 3 games" and automatically assume that those stats prove something. Those who watched the games may know that 2 of those INTs were thrown in desperation come from behind time and 2 more bounced of the WR's finger tips and two others came in which the QB was under a ridiculous amount of pressure...things like that don't require you to be an advanced scout to see.

99,952 and counting