$60 - AKo - The Return of the Creature's Ghost in 3D - Page 4

durron597 · #31 06-02-2006, 02:01 PM

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1. Its a $60
2. People are stupid
3. You are getting 3-1

Folding is unbelievably terrible.

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3-1 when you're drawing to 3 outs twice 90% of the time is not enough. But this is why we should have raised less to begin with.

durron597 · #32 06-02-2006, 02:02 PM

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how much you've effed yourself in this tourney by giving half your stack away.

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Irrelevant because it's a sunk cost and you still have >20x the blinds. The past is the past, what matters now are the pot odds vs. the odds you are beat.

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pot odds - 3:1
odds you are beat - pretty much always

supercomputer · #33 06-02-2006, 02:12 PM

Isn't it "The Curse of the Return of the Creature's Ghost?" You forgot the "Curse" which is obviously not a small thing to forget.

Anyway, I would call now b/c you raised so much. I would raise to 300 instead. But really, I'm not sure I could get away from this flop anyway. You have t1080 left in your stack, going to the flop with a pot of 495. I can't fold AK here I don't think.

adanthar · #34 06-02-2006, 02:17 PM

I think most of curtains' posts are because he missed the reraiser wasn't the PFR, so...

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Flop: (t495) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 bets t60, Hero raises to t420, BB folds, UTG raises to t780, MP1 folds,

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I hit the dealer on the head with my cards

durron597 · #35 06-02-2006, 02:26 PM

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Isn't it "The Curse of the Return of the Creature's Ghost?" You forgot the "Curse" which is obviously not a small thing to forget.

Anyway, I would call now b/c you raised so much. I would raise to 300 instead. But really, I'm not sure I could get away from this flop anyway. You have t1080 left in your stack, going to the flop with a pot of 495. I can't fold AK here I don't think.

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You can when villian makes it really easy to know you are beat. If hero had made it 300 and then the villan shoved, THAT would be a tough spot.

supercomputer · #36 06-02-2006, 02:39 PM

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Isn't it "The Curse of the Return of the Creature's Ghost?" You forgot the "Curse" which is obviously not a small thing to forget.

Anyway, I would call now b/c you raised so much. I would raise to 300 instead. But really, I'm not sure I could get away from this flop anyway. You have t1080 left in your stack, going to the flop with a pot of 495. I can't fold AK here I don't think.

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You can when villian makes it really easy to know you are beat. If hero had made it 300 and then the villan shoved, THAT would be a tough spot.

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I too missed that it was UTG that put in the raise. I would raise to 300, then I could find a fold if UTG 3-raised it.

Here, with half my stack already in the pot...boy it's tough to fold this considering the hands some people turn over.

durron597 · #37 06-02-2006, 03:00 PM

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Here, with half my stack already in the pot...boy it's tough to fold this considering the hands some people turn over.

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How many people do you seriously think check-min-3bet here with hands we beat? Are you seriously expecting to see AQ here more than 10% of the time? (I personally think 5% is generous)

UMTerp · #38 06-02-2006, 03:12 PM

Guys, this is a call even if the opponent SHOWS YOU his A5.

If you fold, ICM says you have 5.32% equity in the prize pool.

If you push and win, you'd have a 18.80% equity.

Hence, you need to win 28.3% (.532/.1880) of the time here to break even.

Code:<hr /><pre>
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1762770
pokenum -h ac ks - ah 5h -- ad 5s tc
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 5s Tc Ad
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Ac 283 28.59 699 70.61 8 0.81 0.290
Ah 5h 699 70.61 283 28.59 8 0.81 0.710</pre><hr />

The responses in this thread are horrible.

You're ahead here at least 10% of the time in a $60 too - that's not insignificant.

wiggs73 · #39 06-02-2006, 03:25 PM

UMT, yes if he shows A5 - and I'll admit that isn't intuitive and I wouldn't have guessed that. So good catch.

But if he shows AT, you have 3 less outs and if he shows a set, you need runner runner. You are not 30% to win against a range of A5, AT, 55, and TT I'd guess. Add AK to the range too I guess because I think that's reasonable...

I do think it's close, but I really don't think you can call folding horrible here.

supercomputer · #40 06-02-2006, 03:29 PM

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Here, with half my stack already in the pot...boy it's tough to fold this considering the hands some people turn over.

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How many people do you seriously think check-min-3bet here with hands we beat? Are you seriously expecting to see AQ here more than 10% of the time? (I personally think 5% is generous)

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I'm not totally confident that calling is correct here. But I do think that it's greater than 10% that we are ahead. I think AK/chop is v. likely as well. I don't play the Party 60s so I can't say for sure how often this is a monster. I do know that bad players will check-mini-raise often with hands they think are best, regardless of the conditions. Especially when they know that they're committing to the pot with the raise.