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#1
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Always Bet on Alcohol - Bodog Hasslehoff Prop
Hasslehoff to enter rehab for more than 1 day in 2007 - Yes. +300
The guy is an alcoholic who is bing drinking and who is in a custody dispute. 2 ways to win - he needs to go to rehab simply because he is a stinkin mess or he is forced to go because of the custody dispute. I think the fair line is about +100. People's alcohol problems do not disappear on their own. This is the second alcohol prop I have seen on Bodog and the other one was won in about 2 secs (Will Keith Urban return to rehab +200). I also bet - will Trump insult Rosie before June 15th. Yes - 140. He just insulted her within last 24 hours and my guess is she will respond and then Trump will respond to the response. Even if that doesn't happen the reporters love to ask him about her and he loves to take shots at her. Fair line is easily -200 to -800. |
#2
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Re: Always Bet on Alcohol - Bodog Hasslehoff Prop
Fun bets. I like the Hasselhoff wager at +300. We have a lot of outs... 1) Custody battle over his daughter. 2) The destructiveness of alcohol itself. 3) Also as a showing of good faith if he gets in hot water with the producers of Americas Got Talent or The Producers.
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#3
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Re: Always Bet on Alcohol - Bodog Hasslehoff Prop
lmao. The +300 has already been bet down to +275. People are betting on alcohol, which is smart [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
I love your use of the term "outs" in this context. This is a no lose bet for me because even if he never goes to rehab I will easily get $50 value out of cheering for 6 months that he will hit the sauce hard. edit: +250 now. lol |
#4
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Re: Always Bet on Alcohol - Bodog Hasslehoff Prop
Down to +170 now
Good pick. |
#5
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Re: Always Bet on Alcohol - Bodog Hasslehoff Prop
Oddly enough, the Trump bet hasn't moved from -140. People must be hitting up the other side as well.
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#6
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Re: Always Bet on Alcohol - Bodog Hasslehoff Prop
What are your thoughts on some of the other props? There is a Rosie/Hasselbeck leaving prop that looks interesting. I could see Hasselbeck walking off or getting sick (she is preggo) or Rosie getting yanked.
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#7
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Re: Always Bet on Alcohol - Bodog Hasslehoff Prop
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/4836051.html
This story gives an insulting quote that Trump said yesterday...was this after Bodog put up the bet? |
#8
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Re: Always Bet on Alcohol - Bodog Hasslehoff Prop
[ QUOTE ]
What are your thoughts on some of the other props? There is a Rosie/Hasselbeck leaving prop that looks interesting. I could see Hasselbeck walking off or getting sick (she is preggo) or Rosie getting yanked. [/ QUOTE ]I hit the no -300. There is only 2 weeks left for this bet. I confirmed this with Bodog. |
#9
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Re: Always Bet on Alcohol - Bodog Hasslehoff Prop
[ QUOTE ]
Down to +170 now Good pick. [/ QUOTE ] That is hilarious. I almost want to take the no now at -250 just so that I can say that I once had a Hasselhoff scalp. |
#10
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Re: Always Bet on Alcohol - Bodog Hasslehoff Prop
I am freerollin the Hass. The line dropped to 100/-140 and I don't see any news. Since he didn't enter rehab last week, the line has to be somewhere between 100-150. So, -140 can't be too far off.
Although it is probably a negative EV bet, I got my arb on hasselhoff and I am freerollin +$80 on yes. edit: added NO -140 for "Sales Tax Fairness and simplification Act". I see no momentum for this. A tax increase or perceived tax increase in an election year is very unlikely. This is a Republican introduced bill and several democrats oppose it already. The bill was also introduced and defeated 2 years ago. Plus, this is a messy subject without easy solutions. So, this is nothing but a bill and I see the NO at -300 minimum. Of course, we all know in the poker world how silly bills get passed in the dark of night [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Note, this goes to the end of 2007. For a bet of this value and given the tiny amount I don't care if I have the money tied up that long. But, it needs to be taken into consideration. |
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