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  #261  
Old 11-13-2007, 10:35 PM
Keyser. Keyser. is offline
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Default Re: High Stakes Poker thread (11/12 - 500k Buyin - Part 2 Spoilers aho

Patrik is bet/folding there probably... I think
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  #262  
Old 11-13-2007, 10:37 PM
plzbenice plzbenice is offline
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Default Re: High Stakes Poker thread (11/12 - 500k Buyin - Part 2 Spoilers aho

what ahnds is in patriks betcallallin-range on the turn?

how would he play TT,QQ,bottomset, KQ,KT,QT etc? J9 i guess he plays the same as AJ but perhaps not instacalling even though calling.
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  #263  
Old 11-13-2007, 10:42 PM
Micro Donk Micro Donk is offline
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Default Re: High Stakes Poker thread (11/12 - 500k Buyin - Part 2 Spoilers aho

[ QUOTE ]
Patrik is bet/folding there probably... I think

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont see bet/folding against gold is good, hes been bluff raising the river a lot, and it may noit be the worst spot to do it.
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  #264  
Old 11-13-2007, 10:43 PM
sh58 sh58 is offline
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Default Re: High Stakes Poker thread (11/12 - 500k Buyin - Part 2 Spoilers aho

[ QUOTE ]
Someone should do the math on PA running it 1,2,3 times. I'm would think it's slightly more ev for PA to run it as much as possible. As each time Gold does hit, there's less outs the next time. Yes there's less non-outs if Antonius hits. But I wouldn't think that change has as much effect. Or maybe it works out exactly even.

[/ QUOTE ]

the equity doesn't change, only the variance. there are probably 20 posts about it on 2+2.
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  #265  
Old 11-13-2007, 10:44 PM
Hipsdontlie69 Hipsdontlie69 is offline
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Default Re: High Stakes Poker thread (11/12 - 500k Buyin - Part 2 Spoilers aho

if JAmie continues to win, I may have to consider him a good player.
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  #266  
Old 11-13-2007, 10:47 PM
Keyser. Keyser. is offline
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Default Re: High Stakes Poker thread (11/12 - 500k Buyin - Part 2 Spoilers aho

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Patrik is bet/folding there probably... I think

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont see bet/folding against gold is good, hes been bluff raising the river a lot, and it may noit be the worst spot to do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think Jamie would ever bluff raise that river. There are also very few bluff hands he could have that point. I'm assuming PA bet/folds because he knows Jamie doesn't VB lightly at all, meaning Jamie would check behind AA/AK and stuff that he might call 90k or so with.
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  #267  
Old 11-13-2007, 10:51 PM
Gullanian Gullanian is offline
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Default Re: High Stakes Poker thread (11/12 - 500k Buyin - Part 2 Spoilers aho

15k to win 365k

15/365 = 4.1%

chance of hitting 2 outer = 2/45 = 4.4%
chance of hitting 4 outer (putting gold on flopped set) = 4/45 = 8.8%

am i right in saying if he thought he could stack him when he hit, even if he's drawing to 2 outs its still +ev?
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  #268  
Old 11-13-2007, 10:53 PM
Raxor101 Raxor101 is offline
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Default Re: High Stakes Poker thread (11/12 - 500k Buyin - Part 2 Spoilers aho

[ QUOTE ]
Patrik is bet/folding there probably... I think

[/ QUOTE ]
If Gold calls, the pot becomes exactly $150,800 going into the river.

There is $296,500 left in Gold's stack and PA covers.

I guess 80k from PA makes sense, hope to get called by AQ, QJ and knows if he gets raised he is beat. Hmmm.
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  #269  
Old 11-13-2007, 10:59 PM
suzzer99 suzzer99 is offline
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Default Re: High Stakes Poker thread (11/12 - 500k Buyin - Part 2 Spoilers aho

Yeah I just did some math on a simple case of KK vs. AA allin on turn with KK having 2 outs. Equity is the same if they run it twice or once. Which makes sense. We know it evens out if they run the whole deck. So for the overdog to have an advantage, his equity would have to go up then back down as you run it more than once.

Also pretty sure no one would ever run it twice if there was an edge, even tiny. Those guys would know about it.
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  #270  
Old 11-13-2007, 11:09 PM
djsnit djsnit is offline
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Default Re: High Stakes Poker thread (11/12 - 500k Buyin - Part 2 Spoilers aho

[ QUOTE ]
lol at guys saying pa should´t call the flop. jamie gave that huge "wow, that feels like aces, i with it was aces" speech before the flop, indicating he has sth like 88-KK. he doesn´t have to have KK really. even if he had qq and hit a set on the flop, he gave pa perfect odds - 15.000 into a 30.000 $ pot or 3 to 1 to draw out on him lol.

i mean, he´s just terrible and make huge mistakes all the time. given that even an ace may be good, patrick is getting perfect odds to call. he might outplay jamie even if he doesn´t hit and jamie will stack off EVERY TIME pa hits.

that hand was great tv and prob the most interesting in hsp history - lots of fun to come once all the money was in contrast to negreanu vs hansen for example. i was really rooting for a king to come on the turn. bad thing is, i almost knew jamie would win most of the money. blogs were full of jamie winning big so it had to be by getting lucky in sick set-ups as he´s the worst player ever on high stakes poker anyway.

everybody´s playing him like he has his cards face up (benyamine not trying to bluff a river with ace hi once jamie starts talking, benyamine calling with 2nd pair no kicker after jamies speech, pa insta-checking behind when gold trap-checked the river oop after betting the turn etc etc.) i haven´t seen any player behave worse on the table as well. jumping around like a monkey and yelling while some other human being lost 500k is just as classless as it gets.

[/ QUOTE ]

3 to 1 to river. Not turn.
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