NFL undefeated season prop - Page 12

thing85 · #**111** 10-26-2007, 02:11 AM

What are the chances Brady breaks the record now? His pace is obviously way over, but how sustainable is it?

Also, what's fair line estimate for NE going 16-0?

People seem to be going crazy over these two things, but I'm curious as to how likely they are now.

KUJustin · #**112** 10-26-2007, 10:51 AM

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What are the chances Brady breaks the record now? His pace is obviously way over, but how sustainable is it?

Also, what's fair line estimate for NE going 16-0?

People seem to be going crazy over these two things, but I'm trying to bet on WSEX.

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No one in the last 2 years has thrown for more than 32. Brady would have to maintain a 40 TDs/season pace to hit 50 at this point. Also, FYP.

thing85 · #**113** 10-26-2007, 12:48 PM

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What are the chances Brady breaks the record now? His pace is obviously way over, but how sustainable is it?

Also, what's fair line estimate for NE going 16-0?

People seem to be going crazy over these two things, but I'm trying to bet on WSEX.

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No one in the last 2 years has thrown for more than 32. Brady would have to maintain a 40 TDs/season pace to hit 50 at this point. Also, FYP.

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Is there something wrong with WSEX?

thing85 · #**114** 11-06-2007, 02:48 PM

There's a tiny arb available (or pick the softer side) for "will Miami go 0-16?"

5Dimes:

Yes +500
No -725

WSEX:

Yes +376
No -488

Seems like the YES (+500) at 5Dimes would be the value bet, but that's assuming WSEX is sharp/efficient.

silentbob · #**115** 11-06-2007, 03:28 PM

Wish I had an account at WSEX. Stupid deposit barriers. Do y'all think there is value in the no at -525 (the best line I can get)? Or am I better off betting approximately 1/8 of what I would bet on the no on the Dolphins ML each week until they win? Intuitively, the latter option potentially puts less money at risk (especially if they win sooner) and would be more +EV but I could be wrong.

kevkev60614 · #**116** 11-06-2007, 05:32 PM

Stupid websense. Is there an update on the Pats line?

silentbob · #**117** 11-06-2007, 05:56 PM

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Or am I better off betting approximately 1/8 of what I would bet on the no on the Dolphins ML each week until they win? Intuitively, the latter option potentially puts less money at risk (especially if they win sooner) and would be more +EV but I could be wrong.

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Never mind. I just did the math and realized this would be a ridiculously dumb idea.

domer2 · #**118** 11-06-2007, 07:15 PM

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What are the chances Brady breaks the record now? His pace is obviously way over, but how sustainable is it?

Also, what's fair line estimate for NE going 16-0?

People seem to be going crazy over these two things, but I'm curious as to how likely they are now.

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FWIW, he plays in bad/cold weather cities in all but one of his remaining games.

By the same token, notice how Belichick constantly chooses passes instead of runs when they're within a few yards of scoring? Even in the Indy game he did this. Point being, he wants Brady to break this record. So I wouldn't take a large position against him.

mogwai316 · #**119** 11-06-2007, 08:08 PM

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So +EV.. but thats a 1% ROI for 4 months. Even if you think their chances of going 19-0 should be lower than that, the ROI is still so low that I'd rather have my money freed up and bet on something else.

[/ QUOTE ]That is faulty. One of the bets can last no longer than 3 weeks. And it is possible that both will last less than a week. I maxed the NE bet and put 1,000 on Indy (I would have maxed but that is all I have that is not tied up).

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Are you 100% sure of the rules on this? In my experience, season long prop bets are not paid until the end of the season no matter when the proposition gets decided. Not saying that this is definitely the case at your book, but it you haven't made absolutely sure, you should.

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Looks like you're right (and my original thought was right), as Bodog hasn't paid off even though the Colts lost on Sunday.

MrFeelNothin · #**120** 11-06-2007, 08:34 PM

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So +EV.. but thats a 1% ROI for 4 months. Even if you think their chances of going 19-0 should be lower than that, the ROI is still so low that I'd rather have my money freed up and bet on something else.

[/ QUOTE ]That is faulty. One of the bets can last no longer than 3 weeks. And it is possible that both will last less than a week. I maxed the NE bet and put 1,000 on Indy (I would have maxed but that is all I have that is not tied up).

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Are you 100% sure of the rules on this? In my experience, season long prop bets are not paid until the end of the season no matter when the proposition gets decided. Not saying that this is definitely the case at your book, but it you haven't made absolutely sure, you should.

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Looks like you're right (and my original thought was right), as Bodog hasn't paid off even though the Colts lost on Sunday.

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Might want to check again, Bodog paid me on Sunday.