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#1
07-14-2007, 05:43 AM
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1-2 commerce hand
Villian in this hand is Russ. Commerce regular, Phillipino around 30, who has the capability of playing very well, but for some reason today is spewy and out of line in quite a few pots.
He opens 3 off the button and I 3 bet the SB with AsJh. He calls. Flop 10-8-6 rainbow. I bet he raises and I call. Turn J completeing the rainbow. I check-call planning on checkraising a good river card? 
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#2
07-14-2007, 10:10 AM
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Re: 1-2 commerce hand
At first I didn't like your river c/r plan. But against Russ who is playing as you described, it borders on genuis. It gets him to bet with hands he wouldn't have called a bet with, while earning you some pretty thin payoffs while he is in spew-mode.
I've seen Russ go nuts on the flop and turn, but I can't remember seeing him bluff 3-bet the river. So a river c/r should be a pretty safe way to attain max EV. nh.
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#3
07-14-2007, 03:35 PM
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Re: 1-2 commerce hand
I don't know him, but this has to depend on just how spewy he's actually playing. If he has the capability of playing very well, do you think that even while spewy he's going to bet the river and payoff a CR with something like Tx, 8x, or 99? Or will he just check behind with those hands. If he's likely to check behind with them then I think I like a turn CR b/c you get more out of him. But if he's pretty much autobetting river regardless, then I think your play is beautiful... although I think he does have to bet nearly 100% of rivers, b/c there's quite a few rivers that you might have to C/C on with this board.
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#4
07-14-2007, 10:44 PM
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Re: 1-2 commerce hand
Sounds like a great plan to me.
Based on the description in his current mind state if he has any piece of the board (A8, 89, etc) I think he's going to bet this river. In fact he might fire another barrel with the A9 or similar hands.
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#5
07-15-2007, 11:45 AM
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Re: 1-2 commerce hand
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know him, but this has to depend on just how spewy he's actually playing. If he has the capability of playing very well, do you think that even while spewy he's going to bet the river and payoff a CR with something like Tx, 8x, or 99? Or will he just check behind with those hands. If he's likely to check behind with them then I think I like a turn CR b/c you get more out of him. But if he's pretty much autobetting river regardless, then I think your play is beautiful... although I think he does have to bet nearly 100% of rivers, b/c there's quite a few rivers that you might have to C/C on with this board. [/ QUOTE ] IMO he's betting most Tx here on the river. If he's spewy and willing to raise the flop w/it, he's certainly going to try to squeeze some extra value out on the river.
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#6
07-15-2007, 03:17 PM
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Re: 1-2 commerce hand
dont love this line against russ, who ive played against a lot, because his river aggression is a little light. he will gladly check the river with a lot of hands like A8, A6, 99, 77, etc. no he would usually not cap 99 pf so that is in his range. c/r the turn.
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#7
07-15-2007, 03:19 PM
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Re: 1-2 commerce hand
no no no. he plays it safe on the river and misses value bets often. but he does have a tendency to pay off way too much when beat and esp if tilty so the way to get the money here is c/r the turn. wow you guys are just so wrong about this one, ive played with russ a lot and he just freezes up way too much on the river even in spew mode.
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#8
07-15-2007, 09:00 PM
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Re: 1-2 commerce hand
I've only played with him once and he got tilty after suffering a couple completely routine beats, and everyone that knows him talks about how great he thinks he is. This combined means I'd just c/r now and let him pay you off with any pair the whole way so he can muck face up at showdown to show you how lucky you got because nobody should ever be allowed to beat such an elite player in a pot.
BTW I've been awake for way too long right now but I think I want to donk the river if he 3bets the turn c/r.
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#10
07-16-2007, 04:30 AM
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Re: 1-2 commerce hand
[ QUOTE ]
Villian in this hand is Russ. Commerce regular, Phillipino around 30, who has the capability of playing very well, but for some reason today is spewy and out of line in quite a few pots. He opens 3 off the button and I 3 bet the SB with AsJh. He calls. Flop 10-8-6 rainbow. I bet he raises and I call. Turn J completeing the rainbow. I check-call planning on checkraising a good river card? [/ QUOTE ] you were there. you know how he has been playing. your instnct on what to do is going to be better than what anyone here could possibly tell you.
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