NL25SH JJ facing c/mr rrpot

[stever1k]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($27.70)
MP ($30.20)
Hero ($26.95)
Button ($28.25)
SB ($28.65)
BB ($34.15)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $0.75</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls $1.75.

Flop: ($5.35) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $7</font>, Hero folds.

Is this fold standard? Villains plays 18/9/20 (VPIP/PFR/AF over 130 hands), Flop AF 13, turn and river infinite.

I do not like to check behind this flop, because I m giving away my hand, telling I have some hand which is beat by a pair of Kings :-(

[Nick C]

I suppose probably Villain has been running hot, but his 130-hand postflop stats do nevertheless suggest that he's a guy who lets his ego get heavily involved postflop ("I just bet -- why are you still in the hand?"). Of course, it's possible that another part of the explanation is that he's a raise or fold guy.

Anyway, postflop looks good to me -- I'd want some real evidence that Villain stacks off light before taking my JJ to showdown versus a flop checkraise with a K on the board. If there were any indication that Villain makes flop plays and then slows down on the big streets, then I guess you could peel versus that min-checkraise and see what he does on the turn. But we don't have any evidence of that at all.

Preflop, I think smooth-calling is an option. I know you probably have the best hand, but Villain's preflop stats are rather tight so far, and I'm not sure I want to build a big preflop pot against this guy. True, the 3-bet does allow you to easily get all-in postflop if you hit an overpair or a set (which you will about half of the time), but I'm thinking you might get uncalled for action from this opponent anyway, and maybe that'll be the case even more if you don't offer him a preflop warning.

There is another issue, which is that if you get 4-bet, it's going to be hard to know what to do. Is Villain being a bully like he has been for the past 130 hands, or does he in fact have AA-QQ? And the answer is, who knows.