UFC 77 Discussion thread

[21times20]

i was gonna write a long detailed explaination about why defending a RNC and keeping a midget in your guard has nothing to do with how you would fare against nogueria, then i remembered this fight isn't even rumored to be taking place, much less on an upcoming fight card

[MikeyPatriot]

SVJ,

Not much. Stuck in Florida for a wedding in my girlfriend's family. Of course it's this Saturday, so I'm praying it's done early so I can catch the fight. Luckily, this family is pretty conservative and the wedding is small, so the reception won't go nuts.

Anyway, we're probably going to have to agree to disagree about A. Silva, although I'm probably giving Dana way too much credit. I understand your point though about going out and giving interviews in the mainstream press. I wasn't really thinking about that. I just don't think it's very hard to market a guy who's come into the UFC and finished every fight he's taken, and in spectacular fashion.

Also, Nog has pretty good striking. He trains with the Cuban national boxing team, so he's definitely capable on his feet. He's not going to KO many guys, though. If the UFC decides to go the mini-pseudo-tournament route, and Nog ends up with Sylvia for the belt, it'll be interesting to see how that plays out. Nog has an absolute iron chin. The only time I've ever seen him rocked was the last fight against Herring where he leaned into a kick that ended up as a knee to his head.

[Performify]

My picks:

[ QUOTE ]
Recommended plays:
I’m laying a lot of lumber on some heavy favorites because I feel they’re undervalued. This obviously presents a larger risk if you have a small bankroll or are using 1% or higher bankroll units. Feel free to scale down units to fit your bankroll considerations.

* Yushin Okami (-205) — 4.1 units to win 2 units
* Forrest Petz (+280) — no play recommended
* Matt Grice (+300) — .25 units to win .75 units
* Alvin Robinson (+135) — 1 unit to win 1.35 units
* Anderson Silva (-190) — 1.9 units to win 1 unit
* Stephan Bonnar (-325) — 3.25 units to win 1 units
* Kalib Starnes (-115) — no play recommended
* Tim Sylvia (+125) — .4 units to win .5 units


[/ QUOTE ]

My writeup:
http://mmajunkie.com/2007/10/18/perf...cks-for-ufc-77

[igetbadbeat]

I got

Anderson Silva 3u to win 1.5u (-200)
Tim Sylvia 1.5u to win 2.4u (+160)
Yushin Okami 1.8u to win .75u (-240)
Alvin Robinson .5u to win .7u (+140)


Silva is better on the feet, hard to control even if you're on top unless you are matt hughes-esque, and he has 5 rounds to finish. I think Rich is in deep water here.

Brandon Vera has all the skills and tools to beat Tim Sylvia...one well placed shot and then a sub could mean the biggest win of his career and a title shot...but I don't see him executing it often enough for him to be that much of a favorite, looks more like 1:1 to me. Some factors would prevent me from betting Sylvia @ 1:1 though.

Yushin Okami - I think he's going to grind out Jason macDonald. MacDonald, IMO, has gotten really lucky with his run in the UFC, i dont think it's gonna continue. Personally I think MacDonald shoulda really focused on his standup, but I dont' think that's what happened.

Alvin Robinson is a beast and I think it will be a good fight.

[Viscant]

The best bet on the card (and in the UFC since Hughes/Gracie) is Sylvia over Brandon Vera. Vera has an insanely low chance of winning this fight by KO. Arlovski hit Tim with probably the loudest punch I've heard in the UFC and Tim won the fight anyways. Vera doesn't have anywhere near that kind of power with his hands, and Tim's height neutralizes the clinch. Also Tim's reach neutralizes leg kicks (ask Ricco what happens when you try leg kicking Tim)

I live in San Diego and trained at City Boxing in the past when Vera was associated with them. As long as I've known Brandon Vera, he's struggled with larger men. He competes in MMA as opposed to straight Muay Thai because he doesn't take punishment well and his straight boxing is below average (and I'm being kind).

If you pick Vera, you're basically saying that Tim's back surgery didn't go very well and that he's a shell of his former self. The only chance Vera has is Tim not coming ready to fight. Looking at the shape he was in at the weighin, that's not a factor at all.

Bet the house on Tim. I got in on this when it was +175 a few weeks ago, but even as low as even, this is still a no-brainer. Sylvia can win this by decision or 2nd/3rd round KO. Vera cannot win by knockout, will have an insanely difficult time winning by decision due to Tim's jab and will win by submission probably 1 in 10 or less. How exactly can he beat Tim?


EDIT:
Also, something to consider about the main event. I'm not betting the main event, I don't see much value in the line either way. I'm cheering for Rich, but the line is accurate IMO.
But anyways, Anderson had visa problems and didn't make it into Ohio until a couple days ago. Both he and Franklin are larger middleweights, so the cut is important. Anderson's cut was rushed due to circumstance. While both he and Franklin made it comfortably, this can't be underestimated. Franklin's gas tank is a huge edge over Anderson's (which is not very deep at all). In a 5 round fight, this edge will be even bigger.
I think the logic of saying that Anderson has 5 rounds to put away Rich is faulty, not JUST because of the weight cut issues, but it's a factor. Anderson by 1st or 2nd round KO, but if Rich makes it into the 3rd round, he has either a late round GnP TKO or UD practically in the bag. If Rich survives the early storm, Anderson WILL gas.

[igetbadbeat]

[ QUOTE ]
The best bet on the card (and in the UFC since Hughes/Gracie) is Sylvia over Brandon Vera. Vera has an insanely low chance of winning this fight by KO. Arlovski hit Tim with probably the loudest punch I've heard in the UFC and Tim won the fight anyways. Vera doesn't have anywhere near that kind of power with his hands, and Tim's height neutralizes the clinch. Also Tim's reach neutralizes leg kicks (ask Ricco what happens when you try leg kicking Tim)

I live in San Diego and trained at City Boxing in the past when Vera was associated with them. As long as I've known Brandon Vera, he's struggled with larger men. He competes in MMA as opposed to straight Muay Thai because he doesn't take punishment well and his straight boxing is below average (and I'm being kind).

If you pick Vera, you're basically saying that Tim's back surgery didn't go very well and that he's a shell of his former self. The only chance Vera has is Tim not coming ready to fight. Looking at the shape he was in at the weighin, that's not a factor at all.

Bet the house on Tim. I got in on this when it was +175 a few weeks ago, but even as low as even, this is still a no-brainer. Sylvia can win this by decision or 2nd/3rd round KO. Vera cannot win by knockout, will have an insanely difficult time winning by decision due to Tim's jab and will win by submission probably 1 in 10 or less. How exactly can he beat Tim?


EDIT:
Also, something to consider about the main event. I'm not betting the main event, I don't see much value in the line either way. I'm cheering for Rich, but the line is accurate IMO.
But anyways, Anderson had visa problems and didn't make it into Ohio until a couple days ago. Both he and Franklin are larger middleweights, so the cut is important. Anderson's cut was rushed due to circumstance. While both he and Franklin made it comfortably, this can't be underestimated. Franklin's gas tank is a huge edge over Anderson's (which is not very deep at all). In a 5 round fight, this edge will be even bigger.
I think the logic of saying that Anderson has 5 rounds to put away Rich is faulty, not JUST because of the weight cut issues, but it's a factor. Anderson by 1st or 2nd round KO, but if Rich makes it into the 3rd round, he has either a late round GnP TKO or UD practically in the bag. If Rich survives the early storm, Anderson WILL gas.

[/ QUOTE ]

While I think the Sylvia line is juicy, I have to point out that the gameplan to beat Sylvia HAS been outlined. It's not that Vera will KO him with knees or punches, but Tim hasn't been aggressive enough in his last few fights and we've seen that his jab is NOT always effective enough to win him a decision. Ricco may have no been doing well with the leg kicks, but I think it's safe to say that Vera's footwork and standup are closer to the quickness of AA and AA's leg kicks were very effective in their 3rd fight. Why he stopped using them is anyone's guess (he claims his leg was broken, I beleive him).

The reason the 5 rounds favors Silva, the finisher, is because Rich's best shot is probably a decision. But remember that a percent of the time that it's going Rich's way by the 4th or 5th round, Silva can still finish it and win the fight. Sounds obvious, but I still think it's a valid and sometimes overlooked aspect of the fight. But what do I know, aren't you the man who invented such genius strategies as timing out with storm? And you train @ city boxing...

GL though, hope sylvia pulls through for both of us.

[Viscant]

Re: Storm, I don't really call it running away or timing out...I prefer rushing down in reverse. Always random finding SF/Marvel people here.

Anyways, I think everything you said is valid. There is a percent of the time that Anderson can win with a homerun strike or sub in the later rounds but it's pretty low. Off the top of my head and without consulting fight finder I can't think of any fight of Anderson's in a major org that he's finished that hasn't been first or 2nd round. His gas tank is notoriously shallow, so it would have to be a real miracle for him to have enough left to stop Rich. Like I said earlier though, I'm not betting this one and I'm just a big time Rich fan, so whatever, maybe I'm just being too hopeful.

While you're 100% right about AA doing significant damage with leg kicks in their 3rd fight, it stands to reason that Tim was already starting to feel his back problems by that point in his career. Too often, people use the steroids as the official demarcation point in Tim Sylvia's career. While that undeniably played a factor, it was only when his back started bothering him and kept getting repeated injuries that he became a decision fighter. It's impossible to put power on a right hand (especially if you have to lunge any, like off checking a leg kick) if you have any kind of back problems and as you'll notice, after the Assuerio Silva fight, he only threw a handful of right hands with any kind of bad intention on them for the next couple of years.

I dunno, maybe I'm just drinking the Miletich kool-aid but I believe it when people were telling me how bad Tim's back was during AA#3 and the Monson fight (to say nothing about how bad it was by the time Randy got a hold of him), so I think the old Tim has a really good shot of coming back in this fight. I don't think we even NEED the old Tim since the boring jab, jab, circle style would be enough to frustrate Vera, who really doesn't deal with that very well.

I suppose we'll see tomorrow, but I'm really confident in Tim in this one. I just don't see any scenario where Vera gets him into significant danger.

[igetbadbeat]

[ QUOTE ]
Re: Storm, I don't really call it running away or timing out...I prefer rushing down in reverse. Always random finding SF/Marvel people here.

Anyways, I think everything you said is valid. There is a percent of the time that Anderson can win with a homerun strike or sub in the later rounds but it's pretty low. Off the top of my head and without consulting fight finder I can't think of any fight of Anderson's in a major org that he's finished that hasn't been first or 2nd round. His gas tank is notoriously shallow, so it would have to be a real miracle for him to have enough left to stop Rich. Like I said earlier though, I'm not betting this one and I'm just a big time Rich fan, so whatever, maybe I'm just being too hopeful.

While you're 100% right about AA doing significant damage with leg kicks in their 3rd fight, it stands to reason that Tim was already starting to feel his back problems by that point in his career. Too often, people use the steroids as the official demarcation point in Tim Sylvia's career. While that undeniably played a factor, it was only when his back started bothering him and kept getting repeated injuries that he became a decision fighter. It's impossible to put power on a right hand (especially if you have to lunge any, like off checking a leg kick) if you have any kind of back problems and as you'll notice, after the Assuerio Silva fight, he only threw a handful of right hands with any kind of bad intention on them for the next couple of years.

I dunno, maybe I'm just drinking the Miletich kool-aid but I believe it when people were telling me how bad Tim's back was during AA#3 and the Monson fight (to say nothing about how bad it was by the time Randy got a hold of him), so I think the old Tim has a really good shot of coming back in this fight. I don't think we even NEED the old Tim since the boring jab, jab, circle style would be enough to frustrate Vera, who really doesn't deal with that very well.

I suppose we'll see tomorrow, but I'm really confident in Tim in this one. I just don't see any scenario where Vera gets him into significant danger.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just curious, @ what point woould you start arbing your action? Vera +120?

[apple11]

I'm just curious, @ what point woould you start arbing your action? Vera +120?

[/ QUOTE ]

Where is vera +120 ill take that line

[Viscant]

+120 is far too low for me to consider arbing this since I feel so strongly that Tim has this one. I might start thinking about it at the +175-+200 range, but even then that would ONLY be because I'm one of the biggest nits to walk the earth and not because of any doubt in how I see this fight going down.