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#1
09-11-2007, 07:14 PM
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Another Q9 hand- I hit trips on the turn, but scary board.
Just saw the post from mackthefork and it instantly reminded me of a Q9 hand I played a couple of days ago, that I had a tough-ish decision on on the turn about how to best play.
Villan is 19/12/1.6 and I have him at 8.32bb/100 over 2,632 hands. I had been playing at 22/18 for the session, and villan had stayed out of my way depite me being very aggro from LP and him being directly to my left and so bearing the brunt. Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com BB ($29.90) UTG ($95.65) MP ($6.05) Hero ($53.75) Button ($57.70) SB ($48.75) Preflop: Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, Button calls $1.75, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>. Flop: ($4.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4.25</font>, Button calls $4.25. Turn: ($12.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $9</font>, Hero calls $9. River: ($30.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> Not sure what I think about the turn play. At the time I was wondering what worse hands I'm going to get value from, and worried about how tough a decision I would have if raised, or called and face river action with lot of chips in middle. Is it best to b/f turn, or c/c? Plan for river? I cannot really see, a fairly passive player who I have evidence of being a winner betting a worse hand on the river. On the turn I would think that villan bets KT, KJ, AK, and sometimes JT [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] but also QJ, QT, AJ, AQ [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]. 
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#2
09-11-2007, 07:47 PM
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Re: Another Q9 hand- I hit trips on the turn, but scary board.
i might even c/r that turn.
once you c/c the turn i think you pretty much have to c/c all but the very worst river cards.
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#3
09-11-2007, 08:00 PM
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Re: Another Q9 hand- I hit trips on the turn, but scary board.
[ QUOTE ]
i might even c/r that turn. once you c/c the turn i think you pretty much have to c/c all but the very worst river cards. [/ QUOTE ] Why? When I call the turn, if I call a river bet I only beat a bluff. I cannot fathom how a winning player value bets a worse hand. I think it's perfectly plausible to call the turn and fold to a river bet.
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#4
09-11-2007, 08:09 PM
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Re: Another Q9 hand- I hit trips on the turn, but scary board.
Why not just bet turn? Your hand is well disguised, you can get value from kings and maybe something like JT (he may be calling you somewhat light given your aggressive image), and you need to protect your equity on such a drawy board.
As played, c/c river I guess. I couldn't contemplate a c/f, your hand is way too good/under-repped.
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#5
09-11-2007, 08:13 PM
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Re: Another Q9 hand- I hit trips on the turn, but scary board.
you have to ask yourself what you were doing merely c/c the turn.
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#6
09-11-2007, 08:21 PM
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Re: Another Q9 hand- I hit trips on the turn, but scary board.
What does he bet the turn with that doesnt re-raise pre flop that I am in good shape against? Compared to his likely calling range pre-flop, that calls the flop and bets the turn (JT,QJ,KQ). I really think he pre-flop re-raise TT, AK, given my fairly light pf raises.
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#7
09-11-2007, 08:44 PM
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Re: Another Q9 hand- I hit trips on the turn, but scary board.
I'd b/f the turn. Check/calling here misses value from random =< one pair hands that he decides to call you down w/ (or at least give you another street of value w/) for w/e reason. If he raises the turn, it's a pretty easy fold on this board imo.
With play having progressed as it has, I don't see villain firing this river as a bluff too often. I can't picture him going for thin value w/ anything less than AK on the river either. Fwiw, your relative hand strength vs. his range, particularly his value range, is pretty low imo. Vs. a villain with these stats, I don't see check/folding the river as any kind of significant mistake at all. With the line you took, I don't see check/calling as bad either. Say you call $9 on the turn and $24 on the river. You've called $33 to win $46.75. Are you ahead of 42% or so of his range for barreling the turn and river to make your call-down mathematically correct? (Note that this calculation omits the % of time he checks behind on the river, so isn't quite accurate for considering your EV/equity vs. his play in its entirety. Only one set of actions he can take.)
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#8
09-11-2007, 09:43 PM
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Re: Another Q9 hand- I hit trips on the turn, but scary board.
[ QUOTE ]
you have to ask yourself what you were doing merely c/c the turn. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Why not just bet turn? Your hand is well disguised, you can get value from kings and maybe something like JT (he may be calling you somewhat light given your aggressive image), and you need to protect your equity on such a drawy board. As played, c/c river I guess. I couldn't contemplate a c/f, your hand is way too good/under-repped. [/ QUOTE ] These 2 posts sum up my thoughts. You hit the best card you could on the turn so why are you shutting down? You have to think what you're representing to villain; if its a weak king or some sort of straight draw maybe he thinks he can move you off it. As played, i lead into him for 20-25. I'm not sure I could call a push though based on your history with him unless you've seen him bluff-raise all-in before. Although I think someone with these kind of stats isnt likely to ever be bluff-raising all-in amirite?
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