Noob Hockey Question

[Mediocre_Player]

Just to humour myself, I fooled around with my spreadsheet from last years season

2006-2007

When the favourite wins, 42.9% of the time it's by 1 goal.

[Baxter]

[ QUOTE ]
Just to humour myself, I fooled around with my spreadsheet from last years season

2006-2007

When the favourite wins, 42.9% of the time it's by 1 goal.

[/ QUOTE ]

How often did the favorite win by 1 goal though (you need to account for how often the dog won).

[hedgie43]

[quote
How often did the favorite win by 1 goal though (you need to account for how often the dog won).

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on the moneyline for that fav but obviously it is going to be greater than 21.45% of the time.

[Mediocre_Player]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just to humour myself, I fooled around with my spreadsheet from last years season

2006-2007

When the favourite wins, 42.9% of the time it's by 1 goal.

[/ QUOTE ]

How often did the favorite win by 1 goal though (you need to account for how often the dog won).

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, filtered it again.

Faves: 737-492 = 60.0%

faves win by 1 goal 313 times = 42.5% of the time * 60% of time = 25.4% of all games the fave wins by 1 goal

The handful of -105/-105 games that were on are going to change these #'s slightly, but I don't feel like dicking around with more IF statements in excel after getting pwnd on wong teasers today [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[hedgie43]

As Crockpot said on a thread earlier this weekend, combining 2 -EV bets does not make a +EV one. Blindly betting the dog ML and -1.5 is a great way to go broke.