Common Critical Situation on Flop: To raise or not to raise TPTK?

[Mad Genius1]

It's important to consider whether villian was in the BB or not, as it makes random 2pr hands more likely. On the other hand, if villian limped and he's a good player, his hand-range here should be relatively clear: 99-JJ, 55/88, AA/KK (if he was first in pot), AQ-QT, or 76. AQ is ahead against a good portion of this hand range, but the important thing to consider here is that if villian understands NL, he will not be calling with a hand that AQ beats here, except 76. This, of course is all given that you don't have the image of a complete maniac. However, it is easy for him to trap with AA/KK or a set since he should be able to pin your hand fairly easily, that being AQ/KQ most of the time. Would most players raise a set on this flop, posssibly with people to act between them? Doubtful, although hero will have a set a small % of time. Thus, if villian smooth calls the raise (say, to 350), then the pot is 800+ and with these stack sizes hero is in danger of putting in another 1k+ drawing slim or dead.

Hero has position here and a medium-strong hand. The pot is small and there are almost no draws out. You are almost always way ahead or way behind, and based on villians' turn play, his hand range should become much more defined.

[claj]

1. I call.
a; There is no draws.
b; I don't want to build a big pot.
c; I don't want my opponent to fold KQ or even QJ.

If my opponent then checks turn I sometimes bet the turn and sometimes checks behind him to induce a river call. I like the second line better against a tricky player.

2. I think I usually would fold.

3. Check turn.

4. Very player dependant. Often I call a pot bet and fold to a 2xpot bet.

[Matt Flynn]

Preflop betting: Assume 5-10, someone raised to 30, three caller if that works with the numbers in the starting post.

[Matt Flynn]

monroe,

Your post gets to the core balancing problem of no limit: outs given vs additional reward gained by not raising early (and one might add the risk of not learning you are behind on the flop, etc.).

[Matt Flynn]

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1. Assume you are not committed. Do you raise or not?


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usually no, raising may inspire the bettor to make a good fold.

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2. If you call, would you also call with QJ?


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this is a tougher question, assuming no reads I probably call. if turn is checked to me I bet it and probably check river.

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3. If you raise, what is your plan of action?


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if I have reason to raise, my plan is to value bet the turn and river.

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4. If you raise, get called, the turn goes check-check, and opponent pots the river, what do you do? What if opponent 2x's the pot?

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call a pot bet on the river, probably fold to 2x pot.

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Thanks for the response turnip. I have played the hand similarly many a time and have also raised that flop many a time. I feel even four-handed there is benefit to heuristic play here, but other than gestalt it is difficult to define without choosing arbitrarily restrictive playing tendencies for my opponents. However, the one "change" in the game that seems powerful is so many players simply will not believe you have a hand as good as TPTK if you do not raise the flop, especially vs opponents who appear loose (and in many cases all you have to do to appear hopelessly loose is make a lot of noise preflop with raises and have slightly loose VPIP). The money gleaned from value betting subsequent streets vs these weak opponents has become a significant part of winrate.

One comment: I have been grossly overbetting rivers vs tighter players when it goes check-check on the turn when I am OOP in the situation described. It works >2/3 and so the play meets basic criteria, but optimal play is another thing, and in the global case when the chips I put in are deducted it barely makes money.

btw, if I call that flop and it is checked to me, I bet it hard. In addition to blowing out draws (or at least charging them dearly), it makes checkraise bluffs difficult to pull off as someone has to risk a mountain of chips. Many players make a value bet there of around half the pot (some of these guys less). Checkraising becomes a lot more interesting as an OOP strategy with a small bet.

[Matt Flynn]

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Why would you say there is no reason to raise here?
You have flopped TPTK on a straight draw board. So your line is just to check-call then here? Wouldn't you want to raise to make it more expensive for him to draw?

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There is exactly one open-end straight draw here. It's about as draw-free a board as you can get, which was, I assume, why it was chosen. You wouldn't be raising to charge draws but rather to extract value from weaker hands.

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One comment: I see gutshot broadway hands calling all the time here. How many global outs are you willing to allow the collective collusive before you feel obligated to pull the trigger?

[Matt Flynn]

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really isnt any reason to raise here*.

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*unless opponent sucks ass

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True - let's assume you are not committed because you cannot get all the money in and be winning.

[Matt Flynn]

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"but very often I'll raise here in position on the turn (with both AQ/QJ): it allows me to take control of the hand, it puts immense pressure on my opponent and often folds out better hands, it gives no free cards to hands that are drawing fairly live, it acts as a value/blocking bet that allows me to check-check the river to showdown if I want, it often gives me a "free" chance to catch up on the river if I was behind, and if I get reraised I am 100% behind (and often drawing dead) and is an easy fold....."

why not do this on the flop? in SS brunson writes that all significant decisions are made on the flop. i still believe this is basically true.

for matt; in a live game you can make a smallish raise in such a way to show incredible strength, this may be the play you are looking for. this is the flop play i would make. those who know they are either way ahead or way behind are kidding themselves. ive never had the turn go check check so i cant help you with that.

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limon how do you feel about shutting down action with that raise?

[BIgMc]

Who raises preflop matters.

[Matt Flynn]

coltrane,

Thanks for the detailed response. I like the turn raise strategy a lot, especially after getting a chance on the turn to make a decision with a little more feel. I have mucked that hand on the turn many a time, hating it and probably saving a ton of money.

Good point about the commitment threshold being out of reach on the flop without a reraise. Interesting how so many 5-10 and 10-20 players still do not get that concept.