What is a "normal downswing"

[icheckcallu]

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I play NL10 normally between 500-1000 hands a day normally 4-8 tabling. I go on swongs all the time. Usually they are about 4-6 buy-ins but you can't really put a number on what a swong really is. Currently I'm on my biggest upswong and downswong of my poker career. In NL10, I ran up 14 buy-ins in 5 days, down 10 buy-ins in 3 days, and now back up 4. [/quote


you probably have leaks if youre having daily swongs that big playing 10nl. I would check all my sd hands that won lost money and evaluate. also check any pot over 40bb that you played.

[AHMWM]

I actually have a W$SD rate of 54% over the last 35K hands. I seem to have quite bad stats in non-showdown pots from what PokerEV says though. The recent swong has been a combonation of outdraws (my luck graph is horrendous), bad plays, and tilt.

[OSUGreg1983]

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it doesn't matter how much a typical downswing is. its not like you can get a refund or something if you exceed standard deviation. all that's important is that you can play better, just like i can play better, and everyone that plays can play better. just keep moving in the right direction and don't stagnate, and you'll be fine.

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As a fairly new player myself, I think the point of the original post was to get an idea of what not to be surprised by in terms of variance. I often ask myself if my 5-7 BI downswings are due to my donkish play or if its simply the nature of the game. On the other side if I run hot I wonder if its due to getting lucky in high variance situations.

Speaking from experience, those that are new to NL have absolutely no idea what a normal swing entails, up or down. So why would it be such a bad idea to ask people what a normal swing is?

[DaycareInferno]

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it doesn't matter how much a typical downswing is. its not like you can get a refund or something if you exceed standard deviation. all that's important is that you can play better, just like i can play better, and everyone that plays can play better. just keep moving in the right direction and don't stagnate, and you'll be fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

As a fairly new player myself, I think the point of the original post was to get an idea of what not to be surprised by in terms of variance. I often ask myself if my 5-7 BI downswings are due to my donkish play or if its simply the nature of the game. On the other side if I run hot I wonder if its due to getting lucky in high variance situations.

Speaking from experience, those that are new to NL have absolutely no idea what a normal swing entails, up or down. So why would it be such a bad idea to ask people what a normal swing is?

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because its highly irrelevent, especially at this level. i mean, if the reason you're asking is because you want to know whether or not you're playing bad, i'll save you some time. you're playing bad, and when you're winning, you're still playing bad. luck and skill aren't the only factors that influence your short term results. there is also relative skill. you can consistantly win, despite being bad if you're consistantly surrounded by worse players.

i don't mean that to sound insulting or anything, and if it makes it any better, i'm still a very bad player also in a non-relative sense. basically, its just always a ridiculous question, because in essence, a person is asking "could i be doing/playing better?" well, of course. we all can, so get to it.

[Bigp1612]

Post deleted by Bigp1612

[Snafu'd]

It happens. I'm on a really fun 11k hand breakeven stretch if it makes you feel better. The point is, like others have said, keep posting and learning and trying to play better and you'll get through it.

[Profish2285]

If you play a nitty game and have self control you really shouldnt go on a downswing more than like 6 buy ins, maybe less. Obviously this changes the more aggro you get and the more tilt prone you are. I am very tilt prone so when I take a couple of beats I just close all my tables now instead of donking off a few extra buy ins that took me a while to make.

[Milky]

Man I don't know how you guys are saying fold hand 1 on the turn. This is a button vs blind battle. He could be betting here with AT or 88, etc, especially with an AF of 7... You guys seem to be results oriented (which is why OP shouldn't have posted results).

[munkey]

Downswongs are an OPPORTUNITY time to improve your game and take a more detailed look @ various areas you wouldn't normally do. Although the results won't show much really from any small changes you make until you run better -you'll come out a better player.

[Milky]

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Downswongs are an OPPORTUNITY time to improve your game and take a more detailed look @ various areas you wouldn't normally do. Although the results won't show much really from any small changes you make until you run better -you'll come out a better player.

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Great way to look at it. I know that after running bad for about 10k hands I started posting more hands and really thinking about my game, and I feel I've improved quite a bit. So I guess my downswing is +EV in the long run.