NL200 - flop a combo draw

[Bukem_]

yeah but they fold much more often when its qj on jack high than qq as an overpair.

Plus sometimes they do this with 99 since they have playing another street with that hand.

They are def bet/folding enough.

[Jay Riall]

I can't do the math, but if Mike is right then they have to fold 40% to make the shove profitable. No [censored] way are they folding that much. Your just asking to put money in as a significant dog.

[Bukem_]

{ 66, 22, AsQs, AJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, KsQs, AJo }

that range is ridic and you know it.

[Jay Riall]

Yah add in a few Jx hands and overpairs. Even if he folds enough to make a shove good given a different range, I still like a check/raise way way much more.

[bilbo-san]

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How many posts have you seen on this forum from people raising/puking with marginal hands.

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Most of the time if they are bad enough to raise/puke with TP or QQ or something then they are bad enough to think 'overpair or top pair on not very scary board getting good odds - Allin!'

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QFT.

As I said before, they aren't turning QJ into a bluff. That means that they likely have AJ and actually think it's good here.

Whether or not you think raising AJ for value is good here or not, IF THIS PLAYER has a J, he's raising it for value here.

Bluffing at players who think they are raising for value is a bad idea.

[Dire]

This is shove or fold. Calling off 25% of your stack, just hoping he pays you off on a flush is so terrible. On the bright side, the gutter is very disguised - but that's not enough of an incentive to just call OOP. You're a 2:1 dog to sets/better flushes. Flipping with everything else. Overall equity is going to be somewhere around 40%. Add in a touch FE, the $50 overlay and I shove. And it is always a very nice thing to let people see you stack off with 'nothing but a 5 high flush draw'. Keep repeating it because it shocked me, but the fish actually notice these things.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
This is shove or fold. Calling off 25% of your stack, just hoping he pays you off on a flush is so terrible. On the bright side, the gutter is very disguised - but that's not enough of an incentive to just call OOP. You're a 2:1 dog to sets/better flushes. Flipping with everything else. Overall equity is going to be somewhere around 40%. Add in a touch FE, the $50 overlay and I shove. And it is always a very nice thing to let people see you stack off with 'nothing but a 5 high flush draw'. Keep repeating it because it shocked me, but the fish actually notice these things.

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Your equity, on THIS flop, is nowhere near 40% if you get called.

[Dire]

I also do not mind the flop check raise line. Alot of people seem inclinced to bet almost any two when checked to in a 3-way pot last to act. Probably more value in this line that just leading out.

[Dire]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is shove or fold. Calling off 25% of your stack, just hoping he pays you off on a flush is so terrible. On the bright side, the gutter is very disguised - but that's not enough of an incentive to just call OOP. You're a 2:1 dog to sets/better flushes. Flipping with everything else. Overall equity is going to be somewhere around 40%. Add in a touch FE, the $50 overlay and I shove. And it is always a very nice thing to let people see you stack off with 'nothing but a 5 high flush draw'. Keep repeating it because it shocked me, but the fish actually notice these things.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your equity, on THIS flop, is nowhere near 40% if you get called.

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You have no reason to believe this guy isn't doing this with QQ, AJ, QJ, KJ type stuff. If his range includes anything beyond sets and better flushes, you're going to be about 40%.

[Dire]

Boom for estimates:

4s5s 41.26% 22,466 0
QQ,AJ,KJ,QJ,66,22,JJ,As9s-AsKs 58.74% 31,984 0