200NL ... thin river call

[verneer]

Player is 31/18 and generally bad. I would not take this line vs. a good regular. I would raise them to $34 on the flop and c/c turn probably. Maybe lead/call shove.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

TheXC: $257.65
pokrhar: $200.00
Lord Admiral: $177.00
lilnip15: $726.40
BEWdragon: $164.10
MontytheMutt: $105.55

Preflop: TheXC is dealt 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">BEWdragon raises to $7.00</font>, MontytheMutt folds, TheXC calls $6.00, pokrhar folds

Flop: ($16) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
TheXC checks, <font color="red">BEWdragon bets $8.00</font>, <font color="red">TheXC raises to $16.00</font>, BEWdragon calls $8.00

I actually don't like my min-raise here. I should make it like $36 or so, but I figured I was really ahead so I wanted to price him in. Meh on flop play though.

Turn: ($48) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">TheXC bets $32.00</font>, BEWdragon calls $32.00

Block/Value bet the turn. If he raises me I guess I have to call. He could have a combo draw with an Ace.

River: ($112) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
TheXC checks, <font color="red">BEWdragon bets $70.00</font>, TheXC calls $70.00

What club could he possibly have here to value bet? His line didn't make sense so I called.

Pot Size: $252.00 ($3 Rake)

[Cue-Ball 66]

Yeah I definitely hate the flop play. Potting it seems a lot better.

As played, I think river call looks pretty decent, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see QcT or KcT or that kind of hand ocassionally.

But it does look like this could be a bluff.

[Felix Felicis]

Like you say, raising more on the flop is better.

but you know that -- so no use cryong over spilled milk so we move on and now for the pot odds, I hope I do this right:

On the river you have to call 70$ to the pot of $182.

So you are getting 182-to-70 pot odds.
182+70 = 252
70/252 = .27777 = 28%

Do you think he doesn't have a flush here more than 72% of the time? Remember that the fact that you have a flush doesn't really matter I think. If you call with 2s2c, you have to call with 2s2d, right? Like you say on the turn, he could have an Ace + a draw so that's the club he could possible have on the river. He could also have made the flush on the turn with like QJ of clubs or something. Or maybe something like facecard or clubs with a T.

I think I would fold, I can't think of what he has here that you beat after calling the turn, but if you are right it is a very good and courageous call.