Semibluffing into a dry side pot

[Che]

If button folds, your 4-outer becomes a 10-outer most of the time. Not a bad deal.

If button calls, your 9 and 6 outs are very dangerous OOP when you hit, but your 7's are extremely well disguised and should payoff very nicely.

If button raises, you're out 2000.

Seems to me that the return far outweighs the risk so I like it generally, but I would like it more with a bigger bet, maybe 3500-4000. I'm just afraid the loose-passives in the rebuy will call such a tiny bet with just about anything and that's bad when just about anything beats you.

Later,
Che

[NHFunkii]

[ QUOTE ]
If button folds, your 4-outer becomes a 10-outer most of the time. Not a bad deal.

If button calls, your 9 and 6 outs are very dangerous OOP when you hit, but your 7's are extremely well disguised and should payoff very nicely.

If button raises, you're out 2000.

Seems to me that the return far outweighs the risk so I like it generally, but I would like it more with a bigger bet, maybe 3500-4000. I'm just afraid the loose-passives in the rebuy will call such a tiny bet with just about anything and that's bad when just about anything beats you.

Later,
Che

[/ QUOTE ]

problem is, as wheatrich mentioned, if he folds to this bet, wouldn't your 6 and 9 have been outs anyway? He has almost 0 probability of bluffing, so the only situation where this helps is when he would have hit an overcard on the turn/river and you hit a pair on the other street. Unless you think he'll fold a pair here (of any kind), in which case it's good.

[M.B.E.]

Glad this has generated some controversy. I think my play was correct, but I posted this to see how many people would call me an idiot. I guess everyone is too polite to use that word?

In a nutshell, I like my bet of 2000 because it's the cheapest way to get to the river.

I figure that my opponent will fold to this flop bet well over half the time, in which case (as Tubasteve pointed out) I'm freerolling against the allin player. It's true that if I just check, my opponent might well check it through, but it's still an advantage to me to get him out of the hand when he has something like QT or K3 or a backdoor flush draw, not to mention the times that he has a 9 or 6 with a bigger kicker than mine.

But an even bigger advantage to my play is when my opponent has a small or medium pocket pair, or was paired by the board (if he's playing K5, for example). I don't expect him to fold 44 or whatever when I bet 2000, but I don't expect him to raise either. (For one thing, my smallish bet could make him suspicious that I flopped trip eights.) If I check, he would likely bet his pocket pair, or his 5, and his bet would probably be large enough (e.g. 4000) that I would have to fold. In these cases, it's great for me to be able to see a turn card for 2000 chips, rather than folding my hand to a larger bet.

Che suggested a larger bet like 3500-4000, but I tend to think that within my opponent's range, on this flop there is not much that would justify him calling 2000 but not 3500-4000.

I thought this hand was interesting because it's a situation where it's correct to bet into a dry side pot even though there's hardly any chance I am currently ahead of the allin player. (By contrast, if my holding in this situation were A3o, betting the flop would be standard because of the chance I am ahead of the allin player's holding.)

[tubasteve]

I also like this play for image purposes, it makes you look maniacal and you are more likely to get paid off with your next real hand.

[wheatrich]

[ QUOTE ]
If button folds, your 4-outer becomes a 10-outer most of the time. Not a bad deal.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. If button has for example A9 then your outs change from 7 to 9 and this also includes an assumption that BB doesn't have any of those outs covered.

If you had 10 outs before--you still have 10 outs--nothing changed unless button actually folded an overpair--which he wouldn't here. (unless button had 66, 77 in which case your bet has now cleaned up one or two outs) [of course I'm assuming nine high isn't actually good... but I think that's a reasonable assumption]

[tubasteve]

The point is not the exact number of outs OP gains by folding out the button; no matter what the button holds the OP gains enough equity in the pot to make this bet +EV if button folds a reasonable amount of time.

[wheatrich]

[ QUOTE ]
The point is not the exact number of outs OP gains by folding out the button; no matter what the button holds the OP gains enough equity in the pot to make this bet +EV if button folds a reasonable amount of time.

[/ QUOTE ]

What? How are these NOT directly coorelated. And you gain in the best scenarios 2 outs by doing this. Unless button catches his six outer on the turn that beats you when you would have caught a river to win--that's pretty unlikely as well.

Unless you're darn sure button will bet if you check and you think you're stuck and/or you're doing this completely for image purposes is the only quasi-reasonable explanation for this play I can come up with.

[matt2411]

I think everyone missed the issue here. The issue here is pot control, since pot control was **NOT** an issue since the bet was ~4% of his stack, it will make the other player fold without an overpair.

now had the button called this, that would be cause for alarm, and i would think he is drawing slim, and would have to give up the hand to a raise or a bet on 4th street.

I like the move

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless button catches his six outer on the turn that beats you when you would have caught a river to win--that's pretty unlikely as well.

[/ QUOTE ]
There's more to it than this. For example, suppose button is holding a 7, let's say K7. Now if I catch a 6 to pair me on the turn, he will have an openended draw so won't fold to my turn bet and would have lots of outs against me on the river. Same thing if button has JT and I hit a 9 on the turn.

In fact there are lots of ways that he could have a "backdoor straight draw" on the flop, such that if we check down the flop and turn, a 9 or 6 on the river would make him a straight whereas it would win me the pot if I had bet him out of it on the flop.

Perhaps it sounds silly when I enumerate these possibilities because each one individually is rather improbable. But all of these possibilities, taken together, add up to enough that pushing the button out of the hand, on the flop, will increase my equity in the main pot by enough to justify the 2000 chips I'm risking.

[wheatrich]

I can't believe you've resorted to arguing about crazy backdoor stuff in order to prove your point... This pot isn't that big of a pot if you lose and it's not good enough % that you're gaining here IMO to justify it. Of course if I was BB I'd be esctatic with your bet because he gains the most by far.

I just have one last question for you.

What are you going to do on the turn if he calls and you don't hit? Check and hope he checks? Check fold? Bet again? I was just wondering if you even considered this scenario.