2/4 6 max, flopped set played passively

[sahaguje]

Villain is tight and agressive, 30/10, agression factor 4,3. Even if I have a somewhat loose image, there is no way he will call any raise without being a favorite over me. Still, I obviously should have raised. But when and why ?

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $400
CO: $177
Hero: $311.35
SB: $465.15
BB: $286.60

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG (poster) checks, CO (poster) checks, Hero calls, SB calls, BB (poster) checks.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($20, 5 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $19</font>, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($58, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $56</font>, Hero calls.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($170, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $168</font>, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: $506

[MadScientist]

Raise turn the pot.
As played, prolly call the river, most but not all the time.
You are looking at the nut straight pretty often there.

[Troll_Inc]

This really is a problem of putting him on a range. You're not just thinking about your own cards are you?

Ranges
Vs an aggressive player I would probably re-raise on the flop as most of the time he isn't going to have 9T.

But vs your TAG opponent, I think you have to give him credit for 9T or something nice like AKT with flush draw. (I would assume most TAGs would try to checkraise with a monster too.)

But you are the one that knows him, what do you think he has?

I actually think that 9 on the turn is probably the worst card possible for you.

As far as raising, I would raise preflop with this hand in position. And depending on his range of hands, you could raise the flop and maybe the turn if the pot wasn't raised preflop. I think this is an excellent hand example where raising gains you a lot of information, especially a flop raise.

[MHP]

I like raising the flop and flipping the decision to the other guy. If he has the straight he is getting all his money in the middle most likely.

You have one 10 in your hand, so that reduces the chance of a straight although its still fairly likely. I guess I like my hand enough on the flop to be willing to go broke with it. So I re-raise the flop. If he comes over the top- I have about 230 left. Do I want to gamble on the board pairing? Is he someone who would go crazy with middle set or nut flush draw? Tough spot because you are a dog to a straight and you have very little backdoor. Once I see the 9 on the turn- I like my hand even more.

If your willing to call the $168 on the river- you basically could have saved yourself the trouble and just got it all in earlier.

[sahaguje]

Thanks for your comments. I am still wondering what I should have done. I'll try to analyse the EV of different plays a little more specifically.

Here is the way I read the hand :

Preflop, I do not raise because of the two posters ; a pot raise makes me commit a too large portion of my stack with a marginal hand, and a smaller raise do not guarantee a 2 or 3 way hand, basically meaning I have to hit a Q to still be in that pot, as I do not like bluffing into more than two
opponents especially if there is a newcomer among them. Turn my hand to QQT9 or better and I raise 3 or 4 BB.


Flop : raising would have been fine, and I would have done that if the money was deeper (or shallower) or against a more predictable opponent, who would reraise with nuts, fold 2 pairs and call with a set or a good draw. But here I knew there was a good chance that villain would reraise with a large range of hands and fold the rest, rarely calling.

After the flop bet, I put him on 9Txx, a 15+ draw, two pairs or a set (but since he bet into the whole field, I do not expect to see 2 pairs or a small set very often). I think a raise would make him fold 2 pairs and a set (since he cannot have top set), and raise most of the rest, except his worse 9Txx and draws. I am not very good at calculations, but I would say a raise would make him fold 25% of his hands, call 25% and reraise 50%. The problem is that I think I am approximately a 60-40 dog against his raising hands. And if he calls, I cannot think of a turn card that is both good for me and that would not make him fold for any substantial bet. If we consider he will give me a free card on turn and I take it, it means that, not taking into account any other bet, I can expect to win 100$ (20+80) 40% of the time, and lose my 80$ 60% of the time. So let's say my EV if he calls is 0.
My EV if he folds is 40.

If he reraises and I fold, my EV is -80
If he reraises and I call, I have to go all-in ; I win 320 40% of the time and lose 300 the rest of the time, so my EV is -50. So I should call.

So my total EV for raising on flop is :
25%*0+25%*40-50%*50= -15$

I do not think I could change the numbers enough to turn this into a very profitable play. Basically, with such a small pot, it is not a good idea to raise with a hand very likely to be behind if reraised. Give me a flush draw or KT with my pair of ladies, and I raise every time. But here it is not very good.

I could have folded the flop, of course, but I was so excited... I think I can turn a call into a profitable play, but that it is better to fold than to raise.


Turn :
Now the raise makes more sense. But the thing is when he bets that turn card, I know that :

1)he has at least the same straight as me 80% of the time.
2)he probably has redraws (2 possible flush draws), but I do not know how much.
3)he will not fold any straight if I raise, but maybe I can make him fold his Q-high straights (and maybe sometimes K-high straights) on the most dangerous rivers.
4) he will very rarely bet as a bluff on the river ; after my two calls, he musts see me as a calling station, and I do not see any good semi-bluffing hands on flop that would have bet such a dangerous turn without having improved.

So I am in a situation where I do not gain much by ending the hand now. If I raise, he will fold maximum 20% of the time, and I think I am a slight underdog, maybe even money if he calls : if he has KT (let's say 50% of the time he calls my raise), my EV is then 25%*400-75%*290=-120$ ; if he has a Q-high straight with some redraws (50% of the times he calls), sometimes more than me but often a little less, let's say I win a little more than half the actual pot, perhaps 90$ (corresponding approximately to me having 3 or 4 more outs than him). So if he calls I lose a little, approximately 15$.

Then the EV of raising is : 20%*110-80%*15=10$, better than folding.

OK, I'll continue later, cause I think the EV of calling is better, but the calculations are more complicated.
All the comments are welcome.

++

[Troll_Inc]

[ QUOTE ]

After the flop bet, I put him on 9Txx, a 15+ draw, two pairs or a set (but since he bet into the whole field, I do not expect to see 2 pairs or a small set very often).

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless I've done something majorly incorrectly, it looks like you are a pretty big favorite to his range on the flop, enough so that it might be a clear re-raise on the flop. Propoker tools calculations

It does get pretty complicated though breaking the different outcomes to your reraise, i.e some of the time he folds (and you have FE) and other times he reraises with a better range of his hands. I don't immediately know how to calculate the chance of each hand type of his range being in his hand. And I agree with you that the downstream analysis is necessary.

[grizy]

calling on turn is okay although I think a fold is right. For the river, remember, this was a nothing pot with nothing invested. If he truly is tight aggressive... it's unlikely you're not staring at the nuts. There is a chance you're looking at Q high straight, but tha'ts very very doubtful. Just remember, to make this call, you need to think you got 33.33% of the pot equity (after call). Using your ange, 80% straight, so 20% of the time you win outright. So... in order to squeeze the last 13.3% out of the 80%, since Q high straight would split, you need to think about 27% of his hands is Q high straight at this point.... or rather, a third of his straights would be Q high. In my experience, the odds aren't quite that high the way the hand was played... but if your read was different, call. Just remember, you said he is tight aggressive and he believes you're a bit of a calling station... those factors combine to spell the nuts to me.