Big Draw Against A Strong Hand

[blah]

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $410.60
BB: $200.00
UTG: $121.00
CO: $257.75
Hero (BTN): $309.95

Reads: <font color="blue">Opponent was playing 16/14 out of 100 hands. I definitely read the min raise 3 bet as probably a set. Is it better to fold the hand if you think the put him on a set, or call. I hate the idea of calling and folding to a blank turn</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $10.00</font>, Hero calls $10.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($23) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">CO bets $15.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $60.00</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $105.00</font>

Pot Size: $188.00

[orange]

allin?

[Unknown Soldier]

you do know you have the nuts dont you?

[13_Xerxes]

NO fold equity, greeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaattttt direct/implied odds and position (you can fold the turn if the board paired).

Call is better imo. If his 3 bet was stronger, I shove probably.

[cs3]

i like to raise flop much larger so im completely comitted or just call vs a 16/14. once he 3 bets hes never folding obv.

as played, with 0 FE im not sure if the math works out to make shoving and seeing 2 cards better, or calling flop folding blank turn. if we call is there any chance he ever checks the turn?

[goofyballer]

Unless the turn pairs the board, we have to call a turn shove anyway (getting better than 2:1). I don't really think it makes a difference where the money goes in.

EDIT: [censored] it, I'll do some math, brb

[goofyballer]

Ok, putting him squarely on a set:

$143 in pot, $45 to call, shove costs $187.75

Shove flop: He calls every time w/ KK, our equity is 41.21%

EV = -187.75 + .4121 * (143 + 187.75 * 2)
= -187.75 + .4121 * 518.5
= +$25.92

Call flop:

7/45 cards pair the board on turn, so:
15.56% of the time, we fold turn (EV: 0)
8 clubs and 6 non-club A's and 9's make our hand, so:
31.11% (14/45) of the time, we get it in with 77.27% equity:
EV = -142.75 + .7727 * (233 + 142.75 * 2) = $257.89 * .3111 = $80.23
On the remaining 24 turn cards, we have to call a shove with 29.55% equity:
EV = -142.75 + .2955 * (233 + 142.75 * 2) = $10.47 * 24/45 = $5.58

SUM: $85.81 on turn - $45 from flop call = $40.81



So, it looks like calling flop and playing more correctly on the turn is better. The problem is that this assumes he really does have a set every time; if he had AA or AK, then folding turn on a paired board would be a huge mistake and definitely affect the above calculations.

EDIT: Actually, our equity vs AA/AK isn't that much better UI on turn than it is vs KK, so even if we're missing out on some EV by incorrectly folding on paired turn cards, it's not by much, and there's no way it's enough to make the $40.8 figure drop below the $25.9 figure (it would change the $0 turn EV 15.56% of the time into, like, $6 EV 16% of the time, which makes a difference of about 93 cents). So, the results unless I screwed something up:

Calling flop and playing pokar on turn &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; shove flop, to the tune of $15.

[cs3]

thanks goof, good work.
and evn the remotest chance of villain checking the turn makes a flop call even better