4 bet semi bluff vs. Esfandiari

[cmcxchris]

1) What is the best hand that you expect Antonio to fold if I shove?

[He very likely wants you to move in. You've shown you're willing to put all your chips in with nothing. A raise like that is either:
a) begging you to come over the top when he has a monster
or
b) setting it up for later
]

2) How often do you expect Antonio to be raising me with air again?
[pretty unlikely]

3) Do you expect Antonio to feel pot comitted with Ax?
[No.]

[towery]

Esfandiari is not raise/folding mediocre hands. He either has a hand like 75s that he has no intention of calling with or a hand that (although possibly mediocre as well) he has every intention of snapping you with.

Raise/folding stuff like 22-99 A2-AJ is terrible from Antonio's spot. If he raised you as lightly as Ax or with a mid pocket pair, it is with every intention to call you 100% of the time.

[nath]

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hes calling tight... like 99/AQ i'd be surprised to see call (they might if he has a 'read' or w/e). I like the shove w/ given info...

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durrr do you expect a player like antonio to be raising mid strength hands w/ the intention of folding to a push here? hands like 88 and AJ and such.

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I don't. I don't think Antonio is going to put himself in a tough spot; i.e. make a reraise with a hand which would be a close decision on a 4-bet. I think he either feels he can solidly call you or easily fold.

[Ansky]

Nath,

As far as I could tell at the time, and my experience playing in online cash games w/ antonio, he understands the concept of playing big pots w/ small or big hands, and just calling here w/ mid strength hands and such. So yeah, we both get why raise/ folding w/ a hand like 99 is a disaster, but I do not know that all those live pros do. My impression from antonio is that he is very very good, I was just making sure.

[NoahSD]

I like a shove here. He's probably folding way more often than you need to make pushing correct here.

The one thing that bugs me is that he showed you a 3-bet with air before, but it's not like he's just gonna stop 3-betting you light.

[nath]

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Nath,

As far as I could tell at the time, and my experience playing in online cash games w/ antonio, he understands the concept of playing big pots w/ small or big hands, and just calling here w/ mid strength hands and such. So yeah, we both get why raise/ folding w/ a hand like 99 is a disaster, but I do not know that all those live pros do. My impression from antonio is that he is very very good, I was just making sure.

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Yeah in that case it becomes a % of times he's bluffing and folds vs. how likely you are to win a showdown vs. his legit range (TT+, AQs+, AKo? too tight? too loose?)
I'm not sure how to do the math there but my instinct tells me it's a good move.

[freehat]

I'll try to break off some math.

Let's compute your equity vs. his possible calling range

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.7136 % 33.42% 00.29% { JTs }
Hand 2: 66.2864 % 65.99% 00.29% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

So you have .337 equity when he calls you and the pot will 15,900.

This will make your expectation when called (.337*15,900)-(7800)= -2441.7

So now we have to figure out how often he has to fold to your push to make this play breakeven.

You win 2900 on a push so 2900x - 2441.7(1-x) = 0

Doing the algebra and we get x=.457 So Antonio needs to fold 45.7% of the time for this play to breakeven verse his calling range.

I'm not really sure how often Antonio is popping you with air, but I doubt you will get the fold often enough to make a push profitable. I think he would re-pop you less often than the prior instance with Twin cold-calling since that is a more ideal situation to squeeze. Secondly, Antonio is in position so his re-raising might be less than if he is in one blinds. Thirdly, I think people like to perceive themselves laggier than they actually are when they are playing, so you are probably slightly overestimating your perceived laggy behavior.

[elliot]

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I like a shove here. He's probably folding way more often than you need to make pushing correct here.

The one thing that bugs me is that he showed you a 3-bet with air before, but it's not like he's just gonna stop 3-betting you light.

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couldnt have put it any better.

[Ansky]

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FWIW, I'm expecting Ansky pushed, got called by a wider range than expected and didn't realize esfandiari was as committed as he ended up being even with marginal hands

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Seems pretty obvious from the initial post. I assume that Esfandiari calls with a lot.

Remember Hansen's call against Esfandiari with T9s against 77 in a similar situation.

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Actually you are both wrong.

I shoved, Esfandiari tanked and folded. He said he folded JJ but I do not beleive that for a second.

Another player at the table then went on and on about how I definitely had aces, and he knew because he had a 'tell' on me. [censored] live poker donkeys.

Now heres a supplemental question,

After Antonio says he folded JJ, do you 1) Show your hand? Show a ten? Muck?

[nath]

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After Antonio says he folded JJ, do you 1) Show your hand? Show a ten? Muck?

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Certain opponents I might show this to, if I needed to send across a "don't [censored] with me image" and it would unnerve them a little. Esfandiari I would never show, he's too good and he already knows you're playing aggressively, and he has position on you. Not a guy I want to give free info. Maybe if he folded the JJ faceup I'd show the ten.
Let them think they have reads and crap on you