Like the TMQ, all picks wrong or your money back!

[ensign_lee]

[ QUOTE ]
As others have said, it's crazy to think anybody would beat any of the top ~8 teams >50% on the road.

I like your picks though. No clue why so many people like the Lions - a notoriously awful road team & pass-happy coach w/ a turnover-prone QB and no running game on the road vs. a good defense. I mean how bad does the Raiders offense have to be for them to not be -3? OK they were really bad last year but still...

Also expecting Jax to flog Tennessee.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your input. And yes, point taken for my logic flaw about the Saints going to Indy. And yes; let's hope that Jacsonville destroys Tennessee. As a Texans fan, I really hate both these franchises. But um...someone has to win, right? haha.

[MyTurn2Raise]

very disturbing

I hope he was just using it to recover from injuries faster, but I remain doubtful


probably be swept under the rug, like the Pujols HGH stuff

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"I happen to think they'll win at least half the time at Indianapolis....This moneyline should be at +175 to +180, tops."

i'm confused if the saints win more than 50% of the time wouldn't the line be EVEN at the max?

why do you have the saints winning more than 20% of the time (+223 ~30%) than every book out there?

edit unless you knew joseph addai would get killed on the first play and injured, but even then...

[/ QUOTE ]

Well obviously what I thought and what the bookmakers thought were entirely different things. And well, I was wrong. D'oh. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

And no; I didn't know that Addai was going to get the wind knocked out of him on the first play of the game. hehe

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, right or wrong, Colts D 7, Saints O 3 was an unlikely outcome!

[ensign_lee]

Adding:

Oakland Raiders -2.5 (+100)
1 additional unit at Matchbook

Decided I'd risk shooting myself in the face with a two unit play on this, since the Pinny lean is now also involved. Pinny is holding -113 on the -2.5 and everyone else is showing -110, with few exceptions that are showing the -115.

[ensign_lee]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers M/L (+240)
2 units at Skybook?

When I first saw the line open up at -6, I was really surprised. I definitely expected this line to be at -9.5 to -10.5. Fact is, that there are about 4 bets on Seattle for every 1 bet on Tampa. But the line has gone from -6 to -5.5. Wha???

I think that this reverse line move is very telling. Whenever a bet seems so incredibly easy to make that it’s stupid, it’s rarely that easy. I’m confident enough to put two units on Tampa’s moneyline.

I will be playing this later today to try to get the moneyline at maximum value, but will be at the Houston Texans game, so won’t be able to relay the odds until I get back later. My advice is to wait and try to get the best line you can; you know that money will be pouring in on the Seahawks later today.

New York Jets M/L (+229.32)
2 units at matchbook

The Patriots are a good team. There’s no doubt about that. And I do think that they got better this offseason. But do I think all that is enough to warrant them being -6.5 to -6 point favorites AT New York? Accounting for home field advantage and what not, that means that if this game were to be played at New England, the spread would be -12 to -13? Against a team that went to the playoffs last year and didn’t lose any of its core players?

This line is off; this moneyline is off. The Jets are not going to lose this game at home more than twice in every 3 tries. I think that this moneyline presents a good +EV bet.

All ESPN has been doing this season is hyping up the Patriots, all but declaring them unstoppable. If it were up to ESPN, we wouldn’t even play the season. The Patriots would go 19-0 and win the superbowl. Period. End of story.

I don’t buy it. But lots of other people have. The line opened up at -6.5 and has now dropped to -6. And yet there are 2 to 3 bets on New England for every bet on New York.

Even after the suspensions of key players on the Patriots, the line doesn’t move as much as it should. What the hell?

This is enough for me to put two units on this game in favor of the Jets.

Cleveland Browns M/L (+194.04)
2 unit at matchbook

This is another line that I saw and immediately when “wah?” This line should be closer to -6.5 to -7. And even if the oddsmakers didn’t start it off there, it should there now. Damn, sportsinsights is showing 9 bets on Pittsburgh for every one on Cleveland. Wagerline is showing a 3:1 ratio. But the line isn’t moving…at all.

Honestly, this bet makes no sense to me, but then again, some of my best bets never do. Yay blindly fading the public when line moves (or absence of line moves) make no sense.

Buffalo Bills M/L (+155)
2 units at BetTrojan

Buffalo isn’t as bad as ESPN makes them out to be. Denver isn’t as good as ESPN makes them out to be. Couple that with the fact that the Broncos historically don’t do well as an opening day favorite, and that I don’t really have as much faith in Cutler as everyone else seems to and you find my Buffalo M/L bet.

Then you have the fact that there are 2 to 3 bets on Denver for every one on Buffalo. The line is currently at Denver -3. TheGreek, one of the books that sets opening lines, opened this at -3.5. Pinnacle opened it at -3, but then shifted it to -3.5 and then finally back to -3. Huh.

Washington Redskins -3 (-110)
1 unit at Skybook

This is a play fading Miami more than it is for the Redskins. I don’t think that the Dolphins are going to do well at all this year. I was going to leave this game well enough alone, but then the Pinny lean was on it for the last day or so, so here I am. Go Redskins?

[ensign_lee]

Haha. I guess this thread couldn't have been more accurately labeled.

YTD: 1-8-1
Units Won: -13.12 units

The public cleaned up this week, much to my dismay. Shame, but it's a long season and that's why we practice bankroll management.

Of course, if you'd prefer to fade me, fade away! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]