NL 50 - AA runs into resistance

[Rambino]

Villain is known. Tough and solid, but also tricky - probably posts here. But he has a history of raping me, and is perfectly capable of very aggressive play to take advantage of fold equity. I normally run away from him.

Basically, by the turn I figure I am looking at either a set or a bluff. I just don't know which. This hand typifies a problem I run into on a regular basis, with this guy and similar players.

In this I decided on the turn to commit, and called his raise with the intent to induce a big bet on the river - I figured he would fold hands worse than mine if I pushed myself.

But the real question is how to decide whether I am facing a big hand here or not. Help me. Please. These situations are killing me.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $31.30
BB: $40.45
UTG: $22.55
Hero (UTG+1): $48.70
UTG+2: $42.80
MP1: $51.35
MP2: $53.45
CO: $42.75
BTN: $55.70

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG+1)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, 4 folds, BTN calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, BTN calls $3

Turn: ($10.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $7.50</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $19</font>, Hero calls $11.50

River: ($48.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $31.70 and is All-In</font>, Hero calls $24.70 and is All-In

[Effen]

Looks like a standard stacking line in position with a nut hand -- call flop, smallish raise turn, shove river. Gotta learn to recognize these lines especially from predictable nits, they don't often mix up their play.

I'd be inclined to say you lost this one. But after situations like this, take notes in the client (double click the persons SN) and write down what happened on all streets, helps when tangling with regs to remember what their 'standard' lines can be.

BTW, that smallish 2.5x turn raise is almost never a bluff.

[Rambino]

I agree - the line just screams out "big hand". That's the problem. It's also the exact line that a tough player would use against a perceived weak player (or in my case, maybe an actual weak player...)

Surely he must know that I recognize this as "OMG set"? And it must therefore be a bluff? Or am I doing a Vizzini? This is where I talk myself into circles, and I can't go laying down good hands every time somebody raises into me.

[seki]

If he's good, he plays both the same way, otherwise he's very exploitable. A majority of the time, he has it. Any stats / interesting history with the guy?

[Johnes Benjamin]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's good, he plays both the same way, otherwise he's very exploitable. A majority of the time, he has it.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, this is what makes it a smart way to play. He will do the same with a bluff but most of the time he will have the goods, which makes it a -ev to be calling.

when you are playing against good players like this you have to pay more attention and get a really good idea of how often they are bluffing, and adjust accordingly.
look for irregularities in betting if there are any.