50NL read these hands

joseki · #1 11-10-2007, 01:59 PM

I obviously wasn't involved in the hand, but I thought it was an interesting hand to try and figure out what happened...

MP is 27/15/4.0 over 26 hands
Button is 16/11/2.4 over 454 hands

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($58.60)
Button ($95.20)
SB ($10)
BB ($62.95)
Hero ($18.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
BB calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP raises to $2, Button raises to $7, 1 fold, BB folds, MP calls $5.

Flop: ($15) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP bets $7, Button raises to $21, MP calls $14.

Turn: ($57) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, Button checks.

River: ($57) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP bets $30.6 (All-In), Button folds.

Final Pot: $26.40

Joliq · #2 11-10-2007, 02:40 PM

This seems interesting, and I really want to work on my hand reading so thought I'd see what I could come up with.

MP looks like they have a wide range, though then again you don't have many hands there. Still, based on what we have, looks like they get involved with a fairly wide range.

So they open-raise in MP...looks like PP, probably a middle one or bigger (77 ^? I think they'd limp anything smaller), big SC's (JT ^? looking at them they might have limped T9 or smaller), obviously AK/AQ, probably AJ also. Also there's the possibility of a suited A, approx A8/9?. Maybe even A8/9o though that's a bit more speculative and seems unlikely in calling the re-raise OOP.

Button 3bets them..unless they're doing it light it looks like a big PP, like 99^ maybe? , AK, AQ, AJ, KQs. If it's light it's a bit wider obviously, but that's difficult for me to say without being at the table so I'm going to go for my more simple version of events :P

MP bets here, just under half the pot. Having not been at the table I can't really say if this is just a c-bet or what. It's an odd size for a C-bet though unless they're really bad. I'm inclined to think it's more likely they hit the flop or thought they were still good and are possibly trying to get value. So we can narrow down the range a bit.
88, 99, maybe 98s, KK, AK,KQ, A8s, A9s, maybe one of the bigger PP's - JJ, QQ. Calling the raise confirms it's probably not a c-bet.

The button raised, so either they thought it was a c-bet and were playing back at the other player, or they thought they were still good. If that's the case the only parts of their range that fit are 99, AK, KQs, maybe QQ^. That's quite a narrow range so they might well just be playing back at MP.

MP checks the turn. So either it was a c-bet, they have an OK hand and don't want to bet out against what might be a big hand, or they have a monster and want to C/R.

Button then checks. Looks like they might well have just been playing back at MP. Either that or they have JJ or another OK but not huge hand that's been scared by overcards. So it looks like nothing of note or a marginal hand.

The 9 on the river gets MP to push. At this point we have them on '88, 99, maybe 98s, KK, AK,KQ, A8s, A9s, maybe one of the bigger PP's - JJ, QQ'. I think we can narrow this down further to 88, 99, 98s, A8, A9, and maybe AK, KQ. It feels like they have something, so I'm inclined towards this range. They could just be trying to throw out a bluff since button checked the turn, but the size of the flop bet and that they push OOP on a paired board makes me think this is less likely to be the case.

Button folds to the push, looks like they might have had some small-ish PP, or other hand that was marginal here, or were playing back with air. So in the face of seeing their RR get called OOP PF, then their flop raise get called, a possible attempt to C/R the turn and then a push on the river it looks to them like they're up against a monster. So they fold.

Sorry if this is too long, I'm not great at hand reading so I thought I'd try and be thorough. Note there are some assumptions here that I make in the absence of more info - like the 3 betting light possibility etc. Feedback on this analysis would be appreciated.

subs · #3 11-10-2007, 02:50 PM

button has JJ or AQs

MP could have a lot of stuff, KQs, TJs, 88, 99

EMc · #4 11-10-2007, 04:33 PM

Button has AK IMO, maybe QQ. He was not comfortable his flop raise was called. I dont think a player with those stats is raising JJ or AQs on that flop.

MP has a set or a slowplayed AA.

Hail Eris · #5 11-10-2007, 04:38 PM

MP has a boat. BTN has AQ.

WhiteWolf · #6 11-10-2007, 04:49 PM

Button had JJ. I can't see him folding better (certainly not the boat w/QQ, EMc!) getting 3-1 on the river, and I can't see him raising the flop donk w/worse.

MP has a 88,99,KQ,QQ,AK,AA,KK. No all of those fit w/preflop action though. Maaaaybe JT, but this should be discounted.

Did either of them end up showing?

slush420 · #7 11-10-2007, 05:19 PM

I think MP has 88 or KQ a lot here or possible quads. Button obv has JJ or AQ and had a read on MP as donking a lot of flops here. Once flop raise was called button knew his hand was dead. I am very sure if button has AA or AK here he will push turn for value.

EMc · #8 11-10-2007, 05:20 PM

I didnt realize the queen fell.

joseki · #9 11-10-2007, 06:13 PM

Preflop: Given his stats, I think button's 3-bet range would be pretty narrow: QQ+ (sometimes 99-JJ), AQs+, occasional suited connectors or sooted aces?

We don't have enough hands to do much with MP's range, but he did raise and call a big 3bet HU OOP.

Flop: WTF does MP's donk/call mean? Obviously it's player specific, but things that make sense are K's, JT, slowplayed sets. Anybody use this line? Seen it used? Or is he a jackass playing whatever random [censored] occurs to him in the moment?

Button's raise represents AK/KK/AA, but you guys are saying it could be AQ, QQ, JJ trying to push MP off KQ or something?

Turn: MP check is standard, regardless of his intended response to a bet.

Buttton checking behind seemed odd, but still consistant w/ AK/AA, for pot control reasons or with JJ/AQ trying to steal on the flop.

River: MP's shove had to be for value right?

Button's fold was surprising to me, but I guess we put him on JJ or AQ trying to steal the pot on the flop. Any chance he's folding AK?

Do you guys use plays like button's flop raise much? It seems pretty poor to me, but I suppose he could have a read on MP. What does that flop donk mean? I never use it, but see it tossed out on occasion.

Neither player showed. Thanks for playing.