400: River Decision

[boltonflats]

c/c the river. id say you're beat here by slowplayed set or flush, but its not much more to call, not much you can beat.

[Renton]

b/f > c/f > c/c

[Mike Kelley]

Villain has a pretty wide range here, and some pretty strong hands that he could very well think are good are on it. Even with this range we are ahead enough on the river to call I think.

Board: Ad 6s 2s Qs 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.391% 57.72% 05.68% 32648 3213.00 { AsQd }
Hand 1: 36.610% 30.95% 05.68% 17503 3214.50 { 66, 22, AQs+, A6s, A2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, AQo+, A6o, A2o }

[GrandMelon]

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b/f > c/f > c/c

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yep

[futuredoc85]

[ QUOTE ]
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b/f > c/f > c/c

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yep

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[CalledDownLight]

[ QUOTE ]
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b/f > c/f > c/c

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yep

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I agree with this for sure. The thing I want to know is where b/c fits in. I'd say that its ahead of c/f, but am I crazy?

[futuredoc85]

heh ya maybe a little crazy [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i think that b/f>>c/f because he is much more likely to call w/ a worse hand than he is to value-bet it if checked to (and prob not bluffing nearly enough to make up for this)

i think c/f>>>c/c because villain is never ever value- betting worse and not bluffing often enough given the strength hero shows by opening UTG and betting twice on this board.

similarly to the reason c/c is bad (hes not that likely to bluff the river when checked to), b/c is bad because however unlikely he is to bluff when checked to, hes probably 3X as unlikely to bluff shove over a 3rd barrel on this board vs an UTG raiser.

[ChuckyB]

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oop i would have check the turn.

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I would disagree here. Hero improved his hand with that card. That's a time to bet in most situations. The board may be as scary to the villain as it is to Hero.

Contrary to the other poster, and agreers, on the river I like c/c > b/f >>>>>>>>>> b/c -- the first two are very close.

[CalledDownLight]

[ QUOTE ]
heh ya maybe a little crazy [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i think that b/f>>c/f because he is much more likely to call w/ a worse hand than he is to value-bet it if checked to (and prob not bluffing nearly enough to make up for this)

i think c/f>>>c/c because villain is never ever value- betting worse and not bluffing often enough given the strength hero shows by opening UTG and betting twice on this board.

similarly to the reason c/c is bad (hes not that likely to bluff the river when checked to), b/c is bad because however unlikely he is to bluff when checked to, hes probably 3X as unlikely to bluff shove over a 3rd barrel on this board vs an UTG raiser.

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thanks. I get the bluffing part, but I personally would be a little more tempted to bluff. As villain I could have something like AxJs or even AxKs and called the turn in hopes of improving. Hero can basically never have a flush, but villain can hold many. If hero has any hand that has SD value and checks then the villain may be unlikely to bet marginal holdings like two pair because hero could be c/c with better (basically the reason we are c/f as hero if we don't lead).

However, once hero bets the river then villain will know that any marginal hand he was calling on the turn is now no good. Thus he can turn this into a bluff when he might have been hoping to see a free SD. Knowing that the very top of hero's range is sets and top two he can expect hero to fold at least a decent percentage of the time given that our (villain's) line looks a lot like it could be a turned flush. Does that make sense? Basically, I'm arguing that shoving is more likely to be a bluff than betting if checked to and given our pot odds we might be able to call. Obviously this is a circular argument to the extent that if villain knows this then he should never bluff raise, but it really comes down to what level he's on wrt that.


edit: this is now worthless pretty much, but you can read it if you're interested on my thoughts if the A was a spade. I should read hands more closely.

[soah]

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Hero can basically never have a flush

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what