AKs vs donk

[Rambino]

But is he really ahead on the flop? Help me count the outs...

Rephrase: Hero is ahead on the flop against Villains ACTUAL hand, but is he ahead against the likely range?

Given the play, I would have thought AQ, AA, KK, QQ, and perhaps even KQ well within the Villain's range, and I think we are behind against all of those.

Assuming we put him on a queen, QJ and QT are just about the only ones we are beating - that that isn't even counting 2p or sets, in which case are just drawing to our flush or runner-runner straights.

Am I missing something here?

[jessyj07]

[ QUOTE ]
Help me count the outs...

[/ QUOTE ] 9 hearts/3 Ks/3 As/1 out for the backdoor straight draw. 16 outs. On average he'll have AT LEAST 13 of these outs. Sometimes the ace or king is not a clean out. Add in if he does this with the type of hand he has and lower pairs as noted in the OP and it makes this a clear push.

[Rambino]

My point exactly - 16 outs against Villain's hand, but not against the range.

Against AQ - a very likely holding - he has 9 hearts + 1 for straights + 1 for other unlikely runner-runner cards = 12 outs.

And it will be 12 outs for most of the likely range. Average yourself up to a generous 13 outs, and it's close but still behind.

16 outs put us barely ahead on the flop, and given how many hands in range come with fewer outs, I can't help but think that the net result is that we are behind any rational range.

[QuattroFour4]

Yeah, definitely standard except I shove the flop.

[jessyj07]

Actually by your addition it's 11 outs, not 12, you're forgetting that the K is 3 outs here though. 3 kings + 1 for unlikely draw + 9 hearts = 13 outs.

[ QUOTE ]
I can't help but think that the net result is that we are behind any rational range.

[/ QUOTE ] in the op he said that opponents range was underpairs and hands like he had, so this is a snap call.

[cooker3]

Easy push, even giving him a tight range like I did


32,670 games 0.059 secs 553,728 games/sec

Board: 3h 5h Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.165% 40.00% 00.17% 13068 54.00 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 59.835% 59.67% 00.17% 19494 54.00 { QQ+, 55, 33, AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo }


you have to push considering how much in the pot already.
Pf is bad, re raise him big!