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#11
08-31-2006, 05:49 PM
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Re: i flopped a pair + flush draw in a raised pot
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] In a lower limit tourney I would figure the PRF for aces with 2 min-raises. I would figure he's calling a push regardless and would probably just call and try to improve on the turn. --Jeff [/ QUOTE ] So what is the problem if villain has aces? Push anyway. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not a huge fan of making a big overbet with a 28% chance of winning the hand. Anyone want to run the math? I'm at work, so no pokerstove. Assume villain's calling range (of our push) includes KQh, KJh, QJh, AA, TT, 33, AT, A3s and AK. Then throw in some Ax, Tx and pocket pairs that fold to the push. It all depends on villain's minraising range (it's a pretty terrible play with one pair) but I think the push is coming out to be -EV against most reasonable ranges. 
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#12
08-31-2006, 05:56 PM
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Re: i flopped a pair + flush draw in a raised pot
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] In a lower limit tourney I would figure the PRF for aces with 2 min-raises. I would figure he's calling a push regardless and would probably just call and try to improve on the turn. --Jeff [/ QUOTE ] So what is the problem if villain has aces? Push anyway. [/ QUOTE ] Anyone want to run the math? I'm at work, so no pokerstove. Assume villain's calling range (of our push) includes KQh, KJh, QJh, AA, TT, 33, AT, A3s and AK. Then throw in some Ax, Tx and pocket pairs that fold to the push. It all depends on villain's minraising range (it's a pretty terrible play with one pair) but I think the push is coming out to be -EV against most reasonable ranges. [/ QUOTE ] If villain only calls with this range plus occasional AK/AQ calls then we're 41% to win when called.
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#13
08-31-2006, 05:56 PM
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Re: i flopped a pair + flush draw in a raised pot
PF's thin but you can't ask for a better flop. Swing for the fences.
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#14
08-31-2006, 06:04 PM
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Re: i flopped a pair + flush draw in a raised pot
If this is such a great flop (and I agree that it is a very good flop), then why push when the only hands that call are ones that make you a 3-2 dog? I would think Hero wants to see a turn card here and obtain more chips when he hits.
Here's an interesting question. If Hero just calls to see a turn card, is a 3 or a 9 a better card that a heart?
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#15
08-31-2006, 06:08 PM
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Re: i flopped a pair + flush draw in a raised pot
[ QUOTE ]
Here's an interesting question. If Hero just calls to see a turn card, is a 3 or a 9 a better card that a heart? [/ QUOTE ] I say yes, b/c my hand will be more disguised, right?
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#16
08-31-2006, 06:20 PM
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Re: i flopped a pair + flush draw in a raised pot
I think the 9 is by far the best (for deception and it probably puts you in the lead), then the heart (because the flush is likely to put you in the lead, albeit a less disguised lead), then the 3 (which may make a full house if opponent does have a set).
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#17
08-31-2006, 06:24 PM
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Re: i flopped a pair + flush draw in a raised pot
[ QUOTE ]
If this is such a great flop (and I agree that it is a very good flop), then why push when the only hands that call are ones that make you a 3-2 dog? I would think Hero wants to see a turn card here and obtain more chips when he hits. Here's an interesting question. If Hero just calls to see a turn card, is a 3 or a 9 a better card that a heart? [/ QUOTE ] Yeah. A heart's more likely to come than a 3 or 9 though. And are you still getting substantial action then? How much is Hero's FE% on a flop shove? Besides which, 10% of your stack is in the pot after the flop bet.
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#18
08-31-2006, 06:29 PM
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Re: i flopped a pair + flush draw in a raised pot
[ QUOTE ]
Party $109 mtt. level 1. effective stacks are the starting 3k. guy in EMP minraises to 80. one coldcaller, then i call in SB w/ 93[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and the BB calls. Flop is A-T-3 two[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I bet 240 into 320 and the pfr minraises, folded back to me. what's my plan? am i an idiot for not folding preflop? or for other reasons? thanks much [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I'm all in here. If I'm not folding, I wouldn't know what else to do. I'm certainly not about to outplay him over later streets with 93 from the SB.
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#20
08-31-2006, 06:34 PM
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Re: i flopped a pair + flush draw in a raised pot
[ QUOTE ]
How about calling the flop and then check-raising all-in on any turn. I think I like this line better than any other option. [/ QUOTE ] Not bad. That's read/history-dependent though, isn't it? Narrow the any turn to most plausible turns?
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