$600 hand -- K-high flush

[Wintermute]

First hand I sit down, no reads.


$600 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Thursday, July 21, 23:32:59 EDT 2005
Table Table 55222 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 2: Colakid ( $729 )
Seat 3: TraderSlim ( $364.20 )
Seat 5: OO66OO ( $1524.64 )
Seat 6: LG2412 ( $249.53 )
Seat 7: Hero ( $600 )
Seat 8: LucNoSuchThg ( $307.79 )
Seat 10: kcarp ( $205 )
Seat 4: MorphHasAces ( $600 )
Seat 1: Swan16888 ( $131.25 )
LG2412 posts small blind [$3].
Hero posts big blind [$6].
MorphHasAces posts big blind [$6].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Qs 9h Ks Jh ]

LucNoSuchThg folds.
kcarp folds.
Colakid folds.
TraderSlim raises [$12].
MorphHasAces calls [$6].
OO66OO calls [$12].
LG2412 calls [$9].
Hero calls [$6].

** Dealing Flop ** [ 5s, Js, 3s ] (Pot $57)

LG2412 checks.
Hero checks.
TraderSlim checks.
MorphHasAces checks.
OO66OO bets [$20].
LG2412 calls [$20].
Hero calls [$20].
TraderSlim calls [$20].
MorphHasAces folds.

** Dealing Turn ** [ 8s ] (Pot $137)

LG2412 checks.
Hero checks.
TraderSlim checks.
OO66OO bets [$25].
LG2412 calls [$25].
Hero raises [$80].
TraderSlim folds.
OO66OO calls [$55].
LG2412 calls [$55].

** Dealing River ** [ 3d ] (Pot $377)

LG2412 checks.
Hero checks.
OO66OO bets [$377].
LG2412 is all-In [$137.53]

Your move?

[JMAnon]

I would fold. There is no way that you have both of them beat for high, IMO, and even if you do, you are only getting half. I would have let this one go on the flop.

[Wintermute]

Do you think A-high flush is out there? Or someone likely filled up? I can't see higher flush b/c my turn raise was only called... I'd expect A-high flush to shove there.

Also, what about the fact that I'm getting almost 5:1 from the main pot? (So that if I can beat the other big stack, I virtually have to call?)

[JMAnon]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, what about the fact that I'm getting almost 5:1 from the main pot? (So that if I can beat the other big stack, I virtually have to call?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Winter,
I am not sure that I really understand what you are getting at with this statement. You have to beat both the big stack and the all-in player for high to win 1/2 of the main pot (one or both undoubtedly have some kind of low). If the main pot is laying you 5:1, you true pot odds for 1/2 the main pot are 2:1 (you pay one to win half of six, for a profit of two). In the sidepot, you are at best getting your money back (if you beat the big stack for high, he must have a low or he is clinically insane). In sum, you need to beat both players for high to make a small profit in the sidepot, and you at best get your money back in the main pot.

I wouldn't rule out an A high flush, because the majority of players would slowplay an A2s on the turn in this hand. It is also quite possible that someone filled up on the river with a hand like A345 or 2345. I think calling here is a big-time losing proposition in the long run.

[got0uts]

I will fold here simply because I at best only win half of the pot and it didn't cost me much, I won't mess with this kind of flop here (may be this is kind of a lower level player's thinking). But thank you for your in-depth explanations.

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also, what about the fact that I'm getting almost 5:1 from the main pot? (So that if I can beat the other big stack, I virtually have to call?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Winter,
I am not sure that I really understand what you are getting at with this statement. You have to beat both the big stack and the all-in player for high to win 1/2 of the main pot (one or both undoubtedly have some kind of low). If the main pot is laying you 5:1, you true pot odds for 1/2 the main pot are 2:1 (you pay one to win half of six, for a profit of two). In the sidepot, you are at best getting your money back (if you beat the big stack for high, he must have a low or he is clinically insane). In sum, you need to beat both players for high to make a small profit in the sidepot, and you at best get your money back in the main pot.

I wouldn't rule out an A high flush, because the majority of players would slowplay an A2s on the turn in this hand. It is also quite possible that someone filled up on the river with a hand like A345 or 2345. I think calling here is a big-time losing proposition in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm starting to lean your way but still not totally convinced--I realize that I'm only playing for half the main pot, and only then if I can beat the other big stack for high... but I just can't see him here w/ the nut flush, even w/ A2s for low. The flop action wouldn't make sense then. I figured the only way I was screwed is if the big stack caught a full house, and if he didn't then the 2:1 on the high half of the main pot is enough for me to call the short stack down. Meh, sounds a little wishy-washy to me now... this does look bad long-run.

FWIW:

Hero calls [$377].
Villian shows [ 8c, 2s, Ah, 7h ] two pairs, eights and threes.
Villian shows 8,5,3,2,A for low.
Shortstack shows [ 4s, 6s, 4c, Ad ] a flush, jack high.
Shortstack shows 8,5,4,3,A for low.
Hero shows [ Qs, 9h, Ks, Jh ] a flush, king high.
Hero wins $239.47 from side pot #1 with a flush, king high with king kicker.
Villian wins Lo ($239.47) from side pot #1 with 8,5,3,2,A.
Hero wins $394.80 from the main pot with a flush, king high with king kicker.
Villian wins Lo ($394.79) from the main pot with 8,5,3,2,A.

[gergery]

I’d probably have jammed the flop and folded to a reraise.
I’d fold on the river

I guess OO6 had A238/A235/A23J with dry As, and LG had A2 with small flush.

[got0uts]

[ QUOTE ]

I’d probably have jammed the flop and folded to a reraise.
I’d fold on the river


[/ QUOTE ]

If you jam the flop, it would cost you $140 (before your action the pot was $100).

My question is, is it worth it to put that much money to test where you are at? Is the reward warrant your investment here on the flop?

Next my concern is if someone comes right back at you and you fold, you will get run over a lot in the future?

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think A-high flush is out there? Or someone likely filled up? I can't see higher flush b/c my turn raise was only called... I'd expect A-high flush to shove there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I’d think OO6 might have A-hi flush without an A2 low based on his turn call (which is designed to bring in LG). But I don’t think he’d then push the river. It seems like he a drawing hand based on how he played it. But both A2 and sets/twopair are drawing here, and I don’t think he’d make that play with bare A2


[ QUOTE ]
Also, what about the fact that I'm getting almost 5:1 from the main pot? (So that if I can beat the other big stack, I virtually have to call?)

[/ QUOTE ]

You call $137 and there is the pot’s $377+OO’s 173+LG’s $173 +your $173 = 896. Half is $448, and minus your $137 is $311, so you’re getting 2.27 to 1 for the high side by my calcs and have no chance for low.

so you need to win high here 30.5% of the time in the main pot for this to be correct. I think your high is probably better than LG, but I’d be worried about OO6. I think your opponents must have one of the following here
a) nut flush
b) boat
c) A2 + nutflush
d) A2 + weak flush
e) A2 + trips
f) A2 + boat

You are basically saying that BOTH opponents will have d) or e) more than 30% of the time, and have a) b) c) f) less than 70% of the time. That seems unlikely to me.

For the side pot, I can’t put OO6 on any hand that you can scoop. He needs the nuts for high which means boat, or a low plus something which could mean weak flush or weak boat. Either way you are at best just getting your money back in the side pot and might be scooped

So I don’t think a river call is terrible, but I don’t think its that close either.

--Greg

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]

So I don’t think a river call is terrible, but I don’t think its that close either.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's pretty F-ing bad now that I've thought it over thoroughly (thanks)... I just got so damn clever with the turn raise that didn't meet resistance, I couldn't lay it down.