Is this good 1 in 22 times?

Ryan2009 · #1 03-10-2006, 02:17 PM

Was I hopelessly tagging along or is it a profitable play?

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero raises, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

River: (18.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets, MP2 calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 22.50 BB

Thanks for any suggestions,

Ryan

PS On a side note, I just received 25USD from Party Poker (haven't played there in months). I am able to play with that money right now. If I lose it, will they withdraw funds from my Neteller/Firepay accounts or is it really free money, no obligations.

Hume · #2 03-10-2006, 02:25 PM

Yes, pot is too huge to consider folding on the river.

Fantam · #3 03-10-2006, 02:28 PM

Its unlikely that you are good here, but UTG could have been overplaying something like Qx.

I think your calling down from the turn raise was correct.

It would be very frustrating to discover that you had been moved off the the best hand by agressive play in a big pot like this one.

Aaron W. · #4 03-10-2006, 02:31 PM

This reminds me of this post in the NC thread. I'm paying off with any good hand in a 20+ BB pot for one bet on the river. An overpair counts as a good hand.

Pocket3's · #5 03-10-2006, 02:32 PM

1 in 22, yeah, call and expect to lose.

bozlax · #6 03-10-2006, 02:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think your calling down from the turn raise was correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. 3-bet the turn. His raise could be a made hand better than yours, a made hand worse than yours, a semi-bluff with a draw, or a desperate bluff in a big pot. The majority of the time it'll be one of the latter 3 (probably the second, something like KQ that "waited until the turn to protect") in this situation, and not the first.

That'll make the river play differently, but with this coordinated a board if there's a bettor and a couple of callers before you I think you can lay the hand down. An overpair will not be good against 3 opponents 1 time in 20-something.

bozlax · #7 03-10-2006, 02:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This reminds me of this post in the NC thread. I'm paying off with any good hand in a 20+ BB pot for one bet on the river. An overpair counts as a good hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

That hand is waaaay different than this one, Aaron. You had top effing set! Of course you call. Why'd you check the river and kill an easy half-dozen kittens?

Pocket77s · #8 03-10-2006, 03:03 PM

I really cannot see how you might be beat unless he flopped
a set of 99s or 55s in this case you are drawing to two outs. I really think Villian was overplaying his TP, I really think if he did have a set he would have raised the flop, his equity edge is too big to just call here. I really think he has a hand like AQs or KQs. Nevertheless, POT = HUGE = YOU = CALL DOWN.

Aaron W. · #9 03-10-2006, 03:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This reminds me of this post in the NC thread. I'm paying off with any good hand in a 20+ BB pot for one bet on the river. An overpair counts as a good hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

That hand is waaaay different than this one, Aaron. You had top effing set! Of course you call. Why'd you check the river and kill an easy half-dozen kittens?

[/ QUOTE ]

Both hands are 20+ BB pots with big hands calling one bet on the river.

I checked-called the river because UTG+1 wasn't that much of a donk. He's not calling that many bets with just a jack unless it's exactly A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or maybe J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (he almost certainly would have raised the flop with QJ - of which there are only 3 combos). The best way for him to have a queen is KQ or AQ, and I put MP3 on an overplayed overpair so there aren't as many combinations of those for him to have (MP3 was quite tight, but had overplayed an overpair in another hand). What about a set of jacks or 7s? I'll go ahead and concede he might have either, but I think he's 3-betting JJ preflop and he would have waken up somewhere with a set. This meant he probably had A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] x[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for the flush draw.

AQ = 2 or 4 combos
KQ = 4 or 2 combos
JJ/77 = 6/2 = 3 combos (I'll cut both set possibilities in half because I'm very sure he raises somewhere with a set)

A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] - A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] = 5 combos
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] - A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] = 0 combos (I throw these out because I don't think he's that loose)
K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] = 1 combo
J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] = 1/2 combo (cut in half because I don't think he's coldcalling with this hand)

I'm behind 6.5 ways and ahead 9. This is not a value bet on the river unless I can bet-fold. And there's no way I'm folding.

Aaron W. · #10 03-10-2006, 04:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think your calling down from the turn raise was correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. 3-bet the turn. His raise could be a made hand better than yours, a made hand worse than yours, a semi-bluff with a draw, or a desperate bluff in a big pot. The majority of the time it'll be one of the latter 3 (probably the second, something like KQ that "waited until the turn to protect") in this situation, and not the first.

That'll make the river play differently, but with this coordinated a board if there's a bettor and a couple of callers before you I think you can lay the hand down. An overpair will not be good against 3 opponents 1 time in 20-something.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm confused by this. The way you describe it, it sounds like you're looking to check-fold the river after 3-betting the turn. Being OOP makes this much closer to a call than a 3-bet on the turn, leading to something that's much closer to a call than a fold.