DISCUSS... vbet tha river...???

[kaz2107]

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $96.27
Hero: $121.56
CO: $21.10
Button: $74.76
SB: $48.55
BB: $67.50

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($8.5, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $6</font>, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($20.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $14</font>, Button calls.

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($48.5, 2 players)
Hero????

Reads and thoughts...
Villian is rather donkish. playin like 55 13 .8 and has a fold to cbet of 24% pver 90 hands. my image is pretty aggro. im playin 30 27 5.5 in that sample and we have played several hands where i have shown up on the river with air on several occassions with villian.

that being said flop and turn look pretty standard standard to me (maybe a bit more on the turn). note the stack sizes on river make this rather akward. he has just over a pot sized bet left and my hand has diminshed in equity on each street. lots of possible boats have hit as well as sveral gutters and a flush draw by the river. he is capable of peeling a card on the flop with a gutter and deff capable of calling 2 steets with a fd. but she still sucks and could very well call with KQ or even K9 here and will deff call with n e T.

so wut is ur line here on the river??? i really could see and argument for shove, c/c, bet/call, and even bet/fold. lol. so wut do u think AND WHY!!!! no one line responses please. save everyones time.

[meccaNES]

$48 pot...that's the most important thing to initially consider.

Next is how often does this villain check the river?

If you've been splashing around a bit then they may have decided to look you up light.

But you raise PF and bet two streets straight out. So you may be getting c/r on the river. I think here i'm as baffled as you are. I'm not sure i can add anything constructive.

If you lead out and get raised you're certainly beaten and it'll cost you more to find out.

I think if this villain is this bad, then i'd check behind hoping i'm good and start playing more spots where i have better equity vs villain.

Is this an accurate estimate?



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

57 games 0.031 secs 1,838 games/sec

Board: Td Kd Ts Jh 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.456% 29.82% 02.63% 17 1.50 { AhTc }
Hand 1: 67.544% 64.91% 02.63% 37 1.50 { AA, QQ, AdKd, AQs, AdJd, ATs, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, QdJd, QTs-Q9s, T9s, AQo, ATo, QTo-Q9o, T9o }

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
$48 pot...that's the most important thing to initially consider.

Next is how often does this villain check the river?

If you've been splashing around a bit then they may have decided to look you up light.

But you raise PF and bet two streets straight out. So you may be getting c/r on the river. I think here i'm as baffled as you are. I'm not sure i can add anything constructive.

If you lead out and get raised you're certainly beaten and it'll cost you more to find out.

I think if this villain is this bad, then i'd check behind hoping i'm good and start playing more spots where i have better equity vs villain.

Is this an accurate estimate?



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

57 games 0.031 secs 1,838 games/sec

Board: Td Kd Ts Jh 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.456% 29.82% 02.63% 17 1.50 { AhTc }
Hand 1: 67.544% 64.91% 02.63% 37 1.50 { AA, QQ, AdKd, AQs, AdJd, ATs, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, QdJd, QTs-Q9s, T9s, AQo, ATo, QTo-Q9o, T9o }

[/ QUOTE ]

u r making the assumption that i am in position (which make this 100xs easier.) we r oop thus will b checking to him if we choose that option. like the idea tho. change n e thing now that u kno we r oop here???

[meccaNES]

Missed that...was assuming just checking behind...

OOP a blocking bet will probably just commit you.

I'd still say check it down and hope that since he's passive he'll either check behind or make a small enough bet that calling isn't hard.

equity we can call up to what? a half pot river bet?

[Dumle]

[ QUOTE ]
Missed that...was assuming just checking behind...

OOP a blocking bet will probably just commit you.

I'd still say check it down and hope that since he's passive he'll either check behind or make a small enough bet that calling isn't hard.

equity we can call up to what? a half pot river bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's assuming he bets all the hands in his range, which he won't.

If we check here, we might as well fold IMO (unless he best small of course). This is because pushing is so much better than checking, since he will call with lots more hands than he will bet with. Sure, you may see an odd bluff once in a while with a small pocket, but that's pretty rare when you've shown this much strength. So, the question is whether to bet (pretty much a push) or check/fold. It's a tough situation, especially since he is as loose as he his. Against a tighter opponent, I would check since he will most likely not call with any hands I beat (or very few) and I will often get a free showdown against the hands I do beat. Against this guy, I don't know. I think I'll just go ahead and push since you have been active and I often underestimate how often they call down with even second pair sometime. Its close, though.

Dumle

[mvdgaag]

I check/call... If we bet and get raised we're in a very tough spot. But if we check we can induce a bluff.

[Kasane]

I think this is a rare case where a blocking bet is best -- 15-18 and fold to a push. We've got enough behind to fold to a push, and he's not often going to be pushing worse hands often. Check-calling sucks, because he's going to be taking us to value town so often or bluff us off the best hand.

Sometimes we're going to be bluffed and it'll cost us more if we block bet and fold than if we check and fold to a push -- but I think we get thin value more often.

[carnivalhobo]

[ QUOTE ]
I check/call... If we bet and get raised we're in a very tough spot. But if we check we can induce a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

hes checking everything worse except total air, which is pretty tough for him to have. And hes never raising with worse.

bet/fold is best here

[mvdgaag]

[ QUOTE ]
Check-calling sucks, because he's going to be taking us to value town so often or bluff us off the best hand.

Sometimes we're going to be bluffed and it'll cost us more if we block bet and fold than if we check and fold to a push -- but I think we get thin value more often.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is he bluffing us off the hand if we are check/calling?

[Kasane]

I assume we're not check calling a push...