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#1
05-20-2007, 12:09 PM
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5/10NL $20 Fixed Buyin - Possibly Mathematically Beatable?
Ok, this may sound like a joke but me and a friend are having and argument about how small buyins with relativley large blinds are unbeatable games. To demonstrate his point he took an extreme senario of 5/10NL with Fixed Buyins of $20 no more or no less. He said regardless of any other factor this game would not be beatable. I disagree and heres my thoughts. First of all we can assume your opponent (dumb for buyin might i add) is has an average to low knowledge of poker. You could statisitically work out every hand that is worth pushing on and every hand that is worth folding on to create maximum EV. You just learn the right times to push and fold (all done preflop) and i believe that without your opponent knowing this you would have an edge and over a long run you would be profitable. Any thoughts? (am i compeltely wrong?)
Note that it is assumed you and your opponents will constantly be rebuying. ie rebuying right after you post and so on. 
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#2
05-20-2007, 12:14 PM
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Re: 5/10NL $20 Fixed Buyin - Possibly Mathematically Beatable?
theoretically somewhat true imo... but practially impossible to do imo...
this would be very freaky game, possibly limpers in front of you, where your push doesn't create any FE at all [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] possibly always around 3 people AI to the flop... I don't see many "mathematical ways" to make this profitable, you just need to get lucky / get your cards / hit your cards [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] 3 players you are usually at around 35% I imagine, but then again, you sometimes need *want* to fold if you have 72o on the BB etc. etc. etc... I don't think this can be regarded as poker, maximizing EV is a joke here IMO... go play roulette for gamblin's sake [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#4
05-20-2007, 12:20 PM
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Re: 5/10NL $20 Fixed Buyin - Possibly Mathematically Beatable?
[ QUOTE ]
theoretically somewhat true imo... but practially impossible to do imo... this would be very freaky game, possibly limpers in front of you, where your push doesn't create any FE at all [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] possibly always around 3 people AI to the flop... I don't see many "mathematical ways" to make this profitable, you just need to get lucky / get your cards / hit your cards [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] 3 players you are usually at around 35% I imagine, but then again, you sometimes need *want* to fold if you have 72o on the BB etc. etc. etc... I don't think this can be regarded as poker, maximizing EV is a joke here IMO... go play roulette for gamblin's sake [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] lol, yes i agree this isnt poker anymore... But im just trying to show my friend how stacksize to blinds isnt everything and even in this absurd example there is profit to be made. Thanks for the response
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#5
05-20-2007, 12:34 PM
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Re: 5/10NL $20 Fixed Buyin - Possibly Mathematically Beatable?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] theoretically somewhat true imo... but practially impossible to do imo... this would be very freaky game, possibly limpers in front of you, where your push doesn't create any FE at all [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] possibly always around 3 people AI to the flop... I don't see many "mathematical ways" to make this profitable, you just need to get lucky / get your cards / hit your cards [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] 3 players you are usually at around 35% I imagine, but then again, you sometimes need *want* to fold if you have 72o on the BB etc. etc. etc... I don't think this can be regarded as poker, maximizing EV is a joke here IMO... go play roulette for gamblin's sake [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] lol, yes i agree this isnt poker anymore... But im just trying to show my friend how stacksize to blinds isnt everything and even in this absurd example there is profit to be made. Thanks for the response [/ QUOTE ] Like GTL said, this wouldn't be profitable in a casino because of rake. In a bubble(no rake), any buy-in/blind ratio could be profitable.
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#6
05-20-2007, 12:58 PM
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Re: 5/10NL $20 Fixed Buyin - Possibly Mathematically Beatable?
This suggestion of a 5/10NL $20 fixed buyin game was just me being frustrated. Our original argument can be seen in here:
1/2NL game at local B&M casino
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#7
05-20-2007, 12:59 PM
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Re: 5/10NL $20 Fixed Buyin - Possibly Mathematically Beatable?
Some key things aren't specified like heads-up vs. ring, but I can see a way to make a mistake: Fold a big blind.
And if a mistake can be made, then a profit can be made by conservation of money. So if there's no rake, yes, money can be made.
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#8
05-20-2007, 01:34 PM
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Re: 5/10NL $20 Fixed Buyin - Possibly Mathematically Beatable?
Of course this would be highly profitable, provided that all players would keep re buying. This just an extreme example of the HG 20NL games. It would require gambling to get your stack to a larger size. I would bet by 2 hours, enough donkeys two players would have stack sizes of over $1,000 each.
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#9
05-20-2007, 07:25 PM
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Re: 5/10NL $20 Fixed Buyin - Possibly Mathematically Beatable?
It's almost inconceivable that it isn't in someone's interest to push preflop, and it doesn't take much of a hand to call. There is some skill, knowing which hands to fold, but otherwise it's pretty much a lottery.
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#10
05-20-2007, 08:10 PM
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Re: 5/10NL $20 Fixed Buyin - Possibly Mathematically Beatable?
No rake. Thus beatable, albeit proper strategy could be taught to a monkey. But to get back to the real question, what if rake is 10% plus a time charge? Is it beatable then?
Certainly not for much, as you are practically coinflipping, and paying a third party 10% plus a time charge to monitor the flips.
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