Oh Noe! A vet posts an AA hand...and it has maths 4 u 2 do

[fretelöo]

[ QUOTE ]
I’ll let someone else do the math. I’m actually quite interested in the result, but since I’m at work I’ve no access to Stove and can’t be arsed to calculate something myself… But I will say just one word about the turn:

Clarkmeister!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, really brilliant. Because since we know that villain - if he has a spade at all - will have Q+, that Clarkmeister is clearly a genious plan. He'll fold his Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and v-bet our ass off with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

[shuinthehouse]

If you bet I don't think he can raise without the A or K of spades, so you can safely fold. He has to be worried about you having A or K of spades since you 3 bet PF and donked into his PF cap on a 3 spade board.

PF isn't AQs in his range also? Seems as or more likely to cap with that 5 way than with JJ.

edit: sorry, missed point 4 adding AQs to his range, still seems as or more likely than JJ to me.

[TimovieMan]

@ fretelöo:

What else do you propose we do in this situation? Villain knows what we’re about, and must assume after the flop our hand is likely QQ+ (and even more likely KK+). He’s in the same situation as we are, but he’s in position and thus has the advantage.

If we check, and he bets, is he bluffing or is he value betting? We don’t know, so we must call down. –EV
If we check, and he checks behind, is he slowplaying, or does he not have a spade? Coinflip river decision. Likely –EV.
If we bet, and he raises, we can clearly fold our hands. What’s he gonna raise on this board? Only the A. We can fold. -1 BB (if he musters up the nerve to bluff-raise us, kudos to him)
If we bet and he calls, does he have a spade that’s not the nuts, or is he unsure about us having a spade? Again we don’t know. Coinflip river decision. Likely –EV.

Whatever we do, it’s not going to be good on this board…

Hence the requested math, obviously. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[fretelöo]

[ QUOTE ]
@ fretelöo:

What else do you propose we do in this situation? Villain knows what we’re about, and must assume after the flop our hand is likely QQ+ (and even more likely KK+). He’s in the same situation as we are, but he’s in position and thus has the advantage.

[/ QUOTE ]

True. But that doesn't make it right to choose the one line that gives us clearly the worst of all worlds for the price of 1BB and the relieve that we avoided a sticky situation. This hand is so insanely read-dependend that it's almose completely useless to post it without ~50 hands to go before so we can establish some sort of feel. In a vacuum (and stats/some remarks about hand ranges is a vacuum), you can simply choose between making a clearly -ev play or a probably -ev play. Clarkmeistering is clearly -ev because there's simply no chance in the world that a thinking player isn't playing correctly against us on this board.

Checking and seeing what he does at least gives us hopes for doing something +ev.

[ QUOTE ]
Whatever we do, it’s not going to be good on this board…

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. But why should we make it worse?

[maverickai]

Question 1
Total hands he can hold:
AA
1 possible hand
1 spades hand

KK
6 possible hands
3 spades hands

QQ
6 possible hands
3 spades hands

JJ
6 possible hands
3 spades hands

AK
8 possible hands
4 spades hands

Therefore odds is (1+3+3+3+4)/(1+6+6+6+8)
= 51.8% he has a spade.
I will round up to 52%

Question 2
Let's assume villian bets out on turn and river, and HERO calls.

Total EV of calling down = ((0.48*15)+(0.52*-2))
= 6.16BB

EV of turn and river call down bets = ((0.48*2)+(0.52*-2))
= -0.08BB

Pot's too big to ignore. Calling is still +EV, so reasonable to call down.

Question 3

Assuming villian will call when he holds no flush, and he will raise if he has a flush.
EV of HERO's turn bet/fold = ((0.48*1)+(0.52*-1))
= -0.04BB

EV of HERO's turn check/call = ((0.48*1)+(0.52*-1))
= -0.04BB

Same EV for both decision. I'd go for check/call, you get to see the river, and you don't forfeit the huge pot.

Question 4

So that adds hands like:
TT
6 possible hands
3 spades hands

AQs
2 possible hands
1 spades hands

The odds he's holding onto spades becomes = (1+3+3+3+4+3+1)/(1+6+6+6+8+6+2)
= 51.4%

Well... not much difference if he's range is widened.

So teacher, is my math correct??? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[NigelSmith]

[ QUOTE ]
AK
8 possible hands
4 spades hands

[/ QUOTE ]
Not too hot on this myself, but I *think* that's one short for the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]...

Making it 55.5555555555 (etc) he has a spade.

Similarly for AQs when you expand his hand range.

[36CampusAve]

[ QUOTE ]
Not too hot on this myself, but I *think* that's one short for the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]...


[/ QUOTE ]

You are right I missed this in my calcs too. Wont change EV much...too lazy to recalc.

[maverickai]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AK
8 possible hands
4 spades hands

[/ QUOTE ]
Not too hot on this myself, but I *think* that's one short for the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]...

Making it 55.5555555555 (etc) he has a spade.

Similarly for AQs when you expand his hand range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops, ok. thanks for informing. But too lazy to recalculate. Wont' change much anyway.