Simple fold eq hand

[AllIn3High]

I find that I too rarely get down to analyzing the math behind fold eq situations, so please correct any mistakes I've made here.

Party Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $216
MP: $237.10
CO: $66.20
Hero (BTN): $243.70
SB: $196
BB: $219.65

CO posts $2
Pre-Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, MP calls $2, CO checks, <font color="red">Hero raises to $11</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $38</font>, 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $243.70 and is All-In</font>

CO poster is obv. horrible and doesn't have a hand, UTG+1 is loose/terrible.

My stats/notes/reads on SB says he's 19/14 and he 3-bets too much preflop. I'd been playing 30/20 at the table, so if he's paying any kind of attention to stats/the table he knows I'm raising anything playable here.

Now, I think he needs JJ+/AK to call this, against this my hand is 33% and there's roughly $50 in the pot, so:

EV when called = .33 * 400 - 200 = -68
EV when he folds = 50
0 = X * -68 + (1-X) * 50 = -68X + 50 -50X = -118X + 50 &lt;=&gt;
118X = 50 &lt;=&gt; X = .42

He needs to fold 42% of the time to make this play profitable, right?

Corrections to math and comments on the play are welcome.

Hope this doesn't turn out to be one of the bad posts I berated in the (nc) thread [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

EDIT: Just gotten corrected, more precisely:

EV when called is .33 * 398 - 185 = -52
EV when he folds is 55

X = probability he folds

0 = X*55 + (1-X)* -52 = 55X -52 + 52X &lt;=&gt; 52 = 107X &lt;=&gt; X~= .49.

So he needs to fold around 50% of the time.

[sixhigh]

Your math is fine. Basically you're losing 55 when he calls and win 52 when he folds. So you need him to fold 52/(55+52)=48% of the time.

But I don't really understand why you don't call in position and outplay him postflop when he 3bets this lightly.

[AllIn3High]

[ QUOTE ]
Your math is fine. Basically you're losing 55 when he calls and win 52 when he folds. So you need him to fold 52/(55+52)=48% of the time.

But I don't really understand why you don't call in position and outplay him postflop when he 3bets this lightly.



[/ QUOTE ]

I'm open to recommendations, but how are we gonna play 88 on different flops w/ a ~$90 pot?

[tubasteve]

if theres any chance he folds JJ and AK you need to take that into consideration also.

[AllIn3High]

[ QUOTE ]
if theres any chance he folds JJ and AK you need to take that into consideration also.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but I think it's probably just as likely he makes a hero call w/ TT than folds JJ.

Also I played around w/ pokerstove and gave him this 3-betting range (99+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo) which is 7.8% of hands, and with AK/AKs/JJ+ being around 3% this makes my push slightly +EV.