A prop I like (Colts/Giants)

[youtalkfunny]

Colts vs Giants
First score of game will be:
--Touchdown -150
--FG or Safety +120

I'm laying the -150

In the Peyton Manning Era, this one comes in almost every single Colts game (sorry, lost last year's notebook, can't give empirical evidence).

I also put tiny bets on this prop, laying the price for the TD, in the following games: DEN/STL, BUF/NE, CIN/KC, SEA/DET, ATL/CAR, SF/ARI. Just for fun, no stats to back me.

Only the IND/NYG one will count on my YTD prop record.

[Assani Fisher]

seems like a total crapshoot to me

[youtalkfunny]

I've been tracking this prop for years. IMO, the TD usually has value, because the public leans so strongly toward the FG.

When there is at least one high-powered offense involved, this one is a lot of fun to bet.

Going 2-4 this afternoon, however, was not fun.

[Assani Fisher]

missed this one too.....not looking good so far.

[Lori]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I wonder if weeks 1-3 are a bit ropey because it's much harder to be sure there is a "high powered offense" in the game until later in the season.

I know you're an excellent player and certainly trust your instincts and if you say that you think it's a winning bet then I suspect that it is. I merely wonder (sigh, again in hindsight, although I did raise this point in my picks for the 3+1 competition) if there is too much uncertainty this early in the season when trying to beat a -150/+120 book.

I'll be following you in from week four though I think.

Lori

[youtalkfunny]

Good point, Lori. Now that you mention it, I'm usually not betting these things so early in the season. I just had a monster day in NASCAR Saturday, and had a bunch of money burning a hole in my bankroll.

Colts win the toss. First possession, Colts march like soldiers the length of the field and into the redzone. First and goal from the 8 or 9.

I don't love my chances at this point?

1st down: run, no gain.

2nd down: (I'm in the car, this what I hear on the radio) "Second and goal, Manning drops back, looking, fires it into the end zone, THROUGH THE HANDS of Reggie Wayne! Wayne, usually one of the most sure-handed receivers in the National Football League..."

At that point, I knew I was dead. I need a miracle.

3rd down: "Manning drops back, flushed from the pocket, rolls out, fires, INTERCEPTED! (my miracle!) DROPPED!!! (nooooo!)"

OMFG. Bring on Vinatieri, and put me out of my misery.

[youtalkfunny]

I'm coming right back with this one in the Colt's Week Two game against the Texans. I'll lay up to -160, and giggle if I can get better than that.

[bucrogers]

All

I checked...last year Colts opened with 13 TDs, 3 FGs. Very nice overlay if you think Colts will continue that trend this year, and if you keep getting only -150 or so...

[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
All

I checked...last year Colts opened with 13 TDs, 3 FGs. Very nice overlay if you think Colts will continue that trend this year, and if you keep getting only -150 or so...

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to be a nuisance, if you have it handy, how often did they score first?

Thanks for the stat.

Lori

[bucrogers]

Sorry Lori I don't have it handy. ESPN has all of last year's box scores which is where I got it from.