Fold set of Q on turn?

keeks · #1 03-11-2007, 06:56 AM

Hi all,

Live 10 handed 3/6

Tight passive player raises utg. The weakest I've seen her raise is AK. Folds around to a loose player in MP who calls. I reraise with QdQs, she caps and the mp player calls, and I call knowing I need a set.

The flop is
Ad Qh Tc 12 sb

She bets out, mp calls, I call. I'm sure that is a mistake- I should raise and fold to a three bet.

Turn- Jc
She bets, mp raises (18 sb)
I'd been watching her for any sign of a tell since the beginning and nothing has really changed. She doesn't look like she's had a set cracked nor made a straight. Totally stone faced.
I'm sure that mp has a K, so she's equally likely to have KK as AA now, though I didn't think she would bet the flop with KK and I'd fall out of my seat if she 4bet AK or TT.

I'll post the rest later.. I know the flop play is really awful, but what's done is done. What do you guys do on the turn?

WalkAmongUs · #2 03-11-2007, 09:53 AM

you'r getting 9:1 on the turn. you only need 4 outs to call. you may have as many as 10. call.

you should've raised the flop, however, if you fold to a flop 3-bet, thats worse than not raising the flop.

Mike · #3 03-11-2007, 10:42 AM

"What do you guys do on the turn?"

I wonder about what brought mp to the edge of his seat raising. If mp is not stupid I fold.

UTG may have a set of Aces to a pair of kings, but mp just made a straight if mp does not suffer fps.

jogger08152 · #4 03-11-2007, 06:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
"What do you guys do on the turn?"

I wonder about what brought mp to the edge of his seat raising. If mp is not stupid I fold.

UTG may have a set of Aces to a pair of kings, but mp just made a straight if mp does not suffer fps.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course MP has a straight. But why would you fold a set against a straight with one card to come getting 21-to-4? If UTG hasn't got AA, this is an easy call. If UTG reraises KK and MP caps, hero is getting implied odds of at least 33-to-8, and quite possibly 45-to-8. (And of course, in addition to 10 outs to win, she splits if the case King hits on the end.) The one and only hand hero needs to sweat is AA. If hero somehow knows this hand isn't out against her, the play is to call and it isn't close.

-Jogger

jogger08152 · #5 03-11-2007, 06:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you'r getting 9:1 on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
No.

[ QUOTE ]
you only need 4 outs to call.

[/ QUOTE ]
No.

[ QUOTE ]
you may have as many as 10.

[/ QUOTE ]
And she may have as few as the case Queen (and the case King for 1/3 of the pot).

[ QUOTE ]
call.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree, but only because UTG showed absolutely neutral body language. Had UTG exhibited the slightest sign of genuine (not acted) displeasure, especially if UTG checks and MP bets, this is a fold and it isn't close.

[ QUOTE ]
you should've raised the flop,

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes.

[ QUOTE ]
however, if you fold to a flop 3-bet, thats worse than not raising the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Totally wrong. Remember, UTG is -very passive- and hero's read is that the only hands this player caps with preflop are AA and KK. Nothing else, not AKs, and especially not TT. If hero raises the flop and gets three-bet, UTG's holding can be reduced precisely to AA.

WalkAmongUs · #6 03-11-2007, 11:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Totally wrong. Remember, UTG is -very passive- and hero's read is that the only hands this player caps with preflop are AA and KK. Nothing else, not AKs, and especially not TT. If hero raises the flop and gets three-bet, UTG's holding can be reduced precisely to AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think this read is realistic at all. OP never even mentioned anything about UTG's capping range.

Mike Gallo · #7 03-11-2007, 11:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think this read is realistic at all. OP mentioned anything about UTG's capping range

[/ QUOTE ] .

Tight passive player raises utg. The weakest I've seen her raise is AK. Folds around to a loose player in MP who calls. I reraise with QdQs, she caps and the mp player calls, and I call knowing I need a set.

UtzChips · #8 03-12-2007, 01:24 AM

UTG either has AA/KK or AK. She's not raising with anything but AK. If she does raise, you should be happy, as that says you are drawing live, while getting correct pot odds.
Remember, you split the pot with a King on the River.

bernie · #9 03-12-2007, 02:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think this read is realistic at all. OP mentioned anything about UTG's capping range

[/ QUOTE ] .

Tight passive player raises utg. The weakest I've seen her raise is AK. Folds around to a loose player in MP who calls. I reraise with QdQs, she caps and the mp player calls, and I call knowing I need a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some think a predictable, tight passives UTG raising range, not to mention capping range, is as wide as a LAGs open button raise. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

b

Godson · #10 03-12-2007, 02:52 AM

You are clearly not winning on the turn, at best you are in 2nd place, its a tough spot but I would fold.

Now, considering you call and UTG does NOT raise, you are getting 8.5 to 1 from the pot and you can figure ur about a 7 to 1 dog to improve to a full house, the thing is though, If MP happens to have turned 2 pair, you have revesed implied odds in effect and youre about a 12 to 1 dog, even though most likely he did turn a gutshot, but dont rule out the mindless loose bad players who WILL raise this turn with worse. AND there is the possibility UTGs range seems like AA,KK, even TT is possible or AKs. Given all this info imo its a fold, given ur READ of UTG. If you think UTGs range can be TT KK or AKs, then call. Don't forget there is also the possibility of having to call 2 more bets once UTG 3bets and MP caps, then what do you do?