KK; turn decision

fretelöo · #1 01-19-2007, 03:06 PM

Villain is your average loose-passive (40/0/0.7 over ~20 hands)

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, CO calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, CO raises, UTG+2 calls, Hero ???

I'm not sure if this is as clear a 3bet as it seems to me. When this turn came up, I thought about a comment I made on this hand. In that hand I thought that if his line makes sense with both AK and KK, you should 3bet because AK comes up more often than KK. Same here: if a loose-passive plays AJ or JJ the same (and given his stats, he might indeed play them both the same on this board), then I should 3bet here because even though I loose to JJ, AJ is a lot more likely because of hand distribution).
In this hand, he might even be on JT - which I also beat. So, I was pretty much leaning to a 3bet here.

Comments?

milesdyson · #2 01-19-2007, 03:11 PM

I would rather fold than 3-bet.

sccrneo · #3 01-19-2007, 03:17 PM

I think CO's range is wider than just JJ and AJ. He could have a slowplayed 7, a straight, or maybe just picked up a draw. If he is passive, his range is likely a straight, set, 7, or Jack. I doubt he is raising a draw. So I am probably just calling his raise since a lot of his possible raising range beats us. I am also semi-worried about UTG+2 as he is cold calling two bets on the turn. I imagine that he is on flush draw and would be weary about any river that completes a flush.

My play on this hand would be to call the turn and probalby just check/call the river, folding if UTG+2 raises a CO bet.

Scary_Tiger · #4 01-19-2007, 03:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would rather fold than 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Point Blank · #5 01-19-2007, 03:32 PM

I don't really think you can say much about CO right now ... you have 20 hands, he is loose (but I don't think you can say much about post flop yet .. unless you've seen him showdown something)

given UTG2 cold calls (gives us a little overlay) and CO looks passive, and is basically unknown, and we close the action I would probably call rather than 3ball it

Big Folder · #6 01-19-2007, 03:50 PM

my first instinct was "well if you put him on two pair then jack it up." Of course, if you knew he had 2-pair you would have to jack it up for fundamental theory of poker's sake. However after sneaking a peak at the other posts calling makes sense and raising might be the worst option.

If he's loose but passive(again you don't really have much of a sample size to go off of, but lets assume he is) he could have a 7, a straight, TT, JJ or he could have AJ, KJ, QJ, JT. most passive players don't raise the turn with TPGK, they just call and hope they win. A JT two pair would raise, but this is the lone combo you beat right now that will likely raise. Since people love to slowplay trips I call down. UTG2 is another concern as he is probably on some sort of draw. Best part is you have relative position so if UTG2 tries to check raise when he hits you can bail easily. If he bets out when a flush comes I probably fold then as well because who knows what CO does.

davelin · #7 01-19-2007, 04:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure if this is as clear a 3bet as it seems to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

How the hell is this a clear 3-bet?

Buzz-cp · #8 01-19-2007, 04:01 PM

AK doesn't make sense at all.

DrModern · #9 01-19-2007, 04:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
AK doesn't make sense at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's drawing an analogy to another thread, Buzz, not saying the guy might have AK. It's just about the distribution of combos of unpaired hole cards vs. paired hole cards.

Anyway, I call here.

martybonus · #10 01-19-2007, 05:09 PM

:grunch:

which villain has those stats, CO or UTG+1 ?

preflop looks standard and fine to me. at this point you're stoked.

flop is also decent, but a little scary depending on the range of your cold caller and UTG+1. assuming the stats you posted apply to both, there are any number of possibilities. Most of them are no big deal (AT may feel good to them but you've got it trounced). looks to me the only hands you're afraid of are AA, TT, or anything with a 7 in it. Seems unlikely that they'd call a pre-flop raise with 7T, even with their loose stats. Hard to tell with loose players. Maybe A7? but wouldn't they have raised your bet here if they had trips or a full house (7T)?

I also think the bet on the turn is entirely sensible. You're still in a pretty good shape. I wonder why he raised your bet here. Is he advertising that the J made his hand? If he's got J plus anything other than a 7 or another J, you've got him squashed.

I think you're idea of a 3bet here is entirely defensible. As you (and now me, superflously) have explained, you've got most of his hands beat. TT, JJ, A7, J7 (then hes' the new mayor of suck-out city) T7 (big suck-out again) are really the only things you're scared of. A 7 holding seems unlikely as there are two on the board already and as you've noted, AJ is more likely that JJ as there is already 1 J on the board. So you can afford to play this aggressively.

A 3bet might also isolate CO and make UTG+1 leave. this may or may not be a good thing but if he's drawing to one of the two possible flush draws on the board, then maybe you want him out of the pot now anyway. so yep, the weight seems to be on a 3bet here.