10 BBs, 99 in EP, Shorter stack A/I in front...easy push?

[Sherman]

UTG+1 had been playing pretty tight on the short stack. I've only been at this table for about 2 orbits. Table average was VP$P = 19% PFR = 10%, so it was a somewhat tight/aggressive table.

I figured I was ahead of UTG+1's range, but much do I need to be ahead to compensate for the times someone behind me picks up a hand? I figure they are calling behind me with (QQ+,AK).

Party $11

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG (t25430)
UTG+1 (t3200)
Hero (t5982)
MP1 (t5045)
MP2 (t8586)
MP3 (t12924)
CO (t5322)
Button (t19358)
SB (t11523)
BB (t12119)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 goes All In[t3200] , Hero... (pot = t4100)

[Sherman]

Okay, now that I re-read this, it seems like a math problem. I've done some analysis.

If I push, I get an overcaller about 18.2% of the time with the range of QQ+,AK (2.6% x 7 players left to act).

I put UTG+1 on the range of 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo (is this too wide)?

So, 81.8% of the time I get no overcalls. Against UTG+1's range I have 59.7% equity in a total pot of 7300 which is t4360. Compared to my risk of 3100, I gain t1260.

I am going to assume if I get called, there is only 1 caller (18.2%).

Against UTG+1's range and the over-pusher's range (AK,QQ+) I have 29.72% equity in a pot of t13064, which equals 3882 total equity. Subtracting the amount risked, this results in a loss of t2100.

So, -t2100 x .182 = -t382.2
and t1260 x .818 = +t1031

Adding the two together, the move has an expectation of t649. I would appreciate it someone could check my numbers to see if this is correct. Thanks.

Sherm

[Imrahil]

I think I may fold and wait for a better spot. You still have 10 big blinds and I think I'd rather be the one pushing than the one calling. I think the times someone picks up a hand behind you makes this not a good push. Based on your range of people calling behind, they will call about 20% of the time. I'm not sure how to work out the math involving the side pot. If UTG+1 wins the main pot and you win the side pot etc..

If someone could work out the math here that would be nice.

EDIT: I just saw your math. What about the side pot? If UTG+1 wins the main pot and you win the side pot does that affect things? What does the math work out to if you put UTG+1 on a narrower range?

[Paul Thomson]

easy push.

[J.A.K.]

[ QUOTE ]


If I push, I get an overcaller about 18.2% of the time with the range of QQ+,AK (2.6% x 7 players left to act).


[/ QUOTE ]

Could you explain this? I was approaching it from the probability of specifically an overpair to your 9's w/ x opponents. This short, I would not think you are overly concerned w/ overs putting money in the pot as a slight dog and possibly hemming up some collective outs against you. I found this http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...rue#Post7371721

but I am a retard w/ math beyond the basics and did not know the function of "^". Any help would be appreciated.

Oh, I push.

[elstunar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


If I push, I get an overcaller about 18.2% of the time with the range of QQ+,AK (2.6% x 7 players left to act).


[/ QUOTE ]

Could you explain this? I was approaching it from the probability of specifically an overpair to your 9's w/ x opponents. This short, I would not think you are overly concerned w/ overs putting money in the pot as a slight dog and possibly hemming up some collective outs against you. I found this http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...rue#Post7371721

but I am a retard w/ math beyond the basics and did not know the function of "^". Any help would be appreciated.

Oh, I push.

[/ QUOTE ]

In this equation P(higher pair) =~ 1 - (1 - 6*P/1225)^N
^ is just indicating a superscript i.e. to the N power. like 5x5x5 can be written 5^3

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


If I push, I get an overcaller about 18.2% of the time with the range of QQ+,AK (2.6% x 7 players left to act).


[/ QUOTE ]

Could you explain this? I was approaching it from the probability of specifically an overpair to your 9's w/ x opponents. This short, I would not think you are overly concerned w/ overs putting money in the pot as a slight dog and possibly hemming up some collective outs against you. I found this http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...rue#Post7371721

but I am a retard w/ math beyond the basics and did not know the function of "^". Any help would be appreciated.

Oh, I push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did the equation this way. There is a 2.6% chance of someone being dealt AA,KK,QQ, or AK. I found this by highlighting these 4 hands in pokerstove. I then multiplied this number by the number of players left to act behind me (7). 7x2.6 = 18.2%.

[sccrneo]

To find the probabibility of at least one caller, you calculate the probability everyone folds and subtract from one so in this case, 1-.975^7=16.2%.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
To find the probabibility of at least one caller, you calculate the probability everyone folds and subtract from one so in this case, 1-.975^7=16.2%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is it this number to the power of 7? I thought it was multiplied by 7?

[sccrneo]

To the power of 7 since each player is independently folding 97.5% of the time.