First good idea

[icetonez]

I'm speaking tomorrow with dsup analyst Chris Glynn from CIBC. Anyone have any questions they want me to ask? His last research report talked a lot about the bridge situation. I'm wondering if the 100+ commercial buildings damaged/destroyed in the fires will have much affect on their top line growth in 2008.

[ahnuld]

figure out what the story is with this refinancing situation already.

[icetonez]

Hopefully he'll have an update on the refi, but two things I gleaned from the CFO earlier this month:

1. They're waiting for even more favorable conditions.
2. It will likely be "multi-staged rather than all at once."

Unfortunately no time frame was given.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm speaking tomorrow with dsup analyst Chris Glynn from CIBC. Anyone have any questions they want me to ask? His last research report talked a lot about the bridge situation. I'm wondering if the 100+ commercial buildings damaged/destroyed in the fires will have much affect on their top line growth in 2008.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes:

"Why did the stock start free-falling again now that I bought back in."

eastbay

[icetonez]

lol, you're not alone; I made my second largest purchase on the 18th. It's what I get for bitching about E*trade's sloth-like transfers.

[icetonez]

I spoke with with Chris Glynn for a few minutes today and this is what I found out:

1. No update on the refinance, but here is the scenario he believes most likely: Refinance the $165M of 10.75% notes at 8.75% late this year or early next year. This would add $0.17 per share and is accounted for in his $1.05 08 EPS estimate. I was surprised at 8.75% because they walked away from 9% this summer. He did not know they walked away from 9% and asked me my source. I said Scorpion Man from the internets, LDO [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

2. He said the same thing as SM about being light for Q3. (SM - Did you heard that from Ed? I've heard this now from 3 different sources so I don't think it's a guess.) So for anyone looking to buy (James?) I would wait until after the 3Q earnings release. Glynn said $4 is a distinct possiblity if they do indeed miss significantly. But he also said there's no threat of BK.


3. The good news. He doesn't have a price target published but thinks $20-25 is "rational". It's just a matter of time. Refi + top line growth = triple. At first I thought this $1.05E doesn't match up with $20+, but looking at the industry, a P/E of 15.5 is average (and I've read analysts lean to conservatism to keep their jobs; direction is more important than magnitude)

So really nothing too new here, just confirmation of a lot of what SM and Krishan have posted.

Lastly, he agreed that the California fires could be significant for commercial sales (180 buildings damaged/destroyed according to Reuters this afternoon).

[krishan]

[ QUOTE ]
I spoke with with Chris Glynn for a few minutes today and this is what I found out:

1. No update on the refinance, but here is the scenario he believes most likely: Refinance the $165M of 10.75% notes at 8.75% late this year or early next year. This would add $0.17 per share and is accounted for in his $1.05 08 EPS estimate. I was surprised at 8.75% because they walked away from 9% this summer. He did not know they walked away from 9% and asked me my source. I said Scorpion Man from the internets, LDO [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

2. He said the same thing as SM about being light for Q3. (SM - Did you heard that from Ed? I've heard this now from 3 different sources so I don't think it's a guess.) So for anyone looking to buy (James?) I would wait until after the 3Q earnings release. Glynn said $4 is a distinct possiblity if they do indeed miss significantly. But he also said there's no threat of BK.


3. The good news. He doesn't have a price target published but thinks $20-25 is "rational". It's just a matter of time. Refi + top line growth = triple. At first I thought this $1.05E doesn't match up with $20+, but looking at the industry, a P/E of 15.5 is average (and I've read analysts lean to conservatism to keep their jobs; direction is more important than magnitude)

So really nothing too new here, just confirmation of a lot of what SM and Krishan have posted.

Lastly, he agreed that the California fires could be significant for commercial sales (180 buildings damaged/destroyed according to Reuters this afternoon).

[/ QUOTE ]

First you are the man. Second, I'm going to kill myself if this goes to 4.

Krishan

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I would wait until after the 3Q earnings release. Glynn said $4 is a distinct possiblity if they do indeed miss significantly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Date?

$4 would suck indeed. I just rebought at $8.

eastbay

[icetonez]

November 12

[icetonez]

Something else to think about: the catalyst for the $7-$8.50 spike was the September 18th rate cut. Futures are saying there is a 90% chance rates will be cut again come Halloween.