Interesting situation vs unknown opponent...first hand NLTRN

[The Camel]

First hand of a $1130 HU SNG.

I have no information on my opponent except his sharkscope record which reads:

251 -$67 $430 -24% -$16,901 Tilt

and he has one of those pretty lil fishes jumping next to his name!

He hasn't played for a couple of weeks, so it's possible it's someone else playing his account.



*********** # 1 **************
PokerStars Game #11240545204: Tournament #57028269, $1100+$30 Hold'em No Limit -
Match Round I, Level I (10/20) - 2007/07/31 - 17:50:51 (ET)
Table '57028269 1' 2-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: BOLLPOKER (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: The Camel (1500 in chips)
BOLLPOKER: posts small blind 10
The Camel: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to The Camel [9c Kd]
BOLLPOKER: raises 20 to 40
The Camel: calls 20
*** FLOP *** [3d Jc Kh]
The Camel: checks
BOLLPOKER: bets 120
The Camel: calls 120
*** TURN *** [3d Jc Kh] [5c]
The Camel: checks
BOLLPOKER: bets 400

What should I do here?

[BCM11]

I would probably lean towards folding. You are gonna get a better spot against someone with that weak a sharkscope and you really don't beat anything except a total bluff.

[Jiganti]

Yeah, I'm folding here, but it's not clear-cut. He is a huge donk, but let's wait for a better situation.

[cwar]

[ QUOTE ]
I would probably lean towards folding. You are gonna get a better spot against someone with that weak a sharkscope and you really don't beat anything except a total bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
With someone with that kind of sharkscope (not to mention his status is tilt) this is gonna be air a lot or him over playing a weaker pair, its still close though, Im leaning towards a slow call hoping he will bluff the rest on the river.

[chrismystero]

[ QUOTE ]
...and you really don't beat anything except a total bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
explain?

Not to trying to be someone screaming "ZOMGG TOP PAIR!", but what is your reasoning that top pair only beats a total bluff? I see several hands someone with a weak sharkscope would be betting here that top pair beats.

I'd have to agree with cwar, to call the turn and let him fire once more on the river if he chooses to.

[cwar]

[ QUOTE ]
Not to trying to be someone screaming "ZOMGG TOP PAIR!", but what is your reasoning that top pair only beats a total bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]
If villain were logical the weakest hand he would be betting for value here is a stronger TP, clearly not the case tho.

[ackbleh]

Knowing that he's a loser doesn't tell you how he loses. I'd probably fold and try to get a feel for his aggression level before playing a big pot at small blinds with a mediocre hand.

The one thing that is for certain is that you can't call the turn and fold the river. The call on the turn is for all your chips.

Even if you call here and happen to lose, though, you do at least see his hand and get a little bit of information. The only real tragic result here is if you go broke on this hand AND fail to get a rematch.

[cwar]

[ QUOTE ]
Knowing that he's a loser doesn't tell you how he loses. I'd probably fold and try to get a feel for his aggression level before playing a big pot at small blinds with a mediocre hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Im thinking in terms of Bayes theorem, we saw him open raise preflop, bet the flop, bet the turn, he has a terrible ROI that means he has picked one of the WORST possible play styles which basically means incredibly loose passive or insano over aggro (see overplaying pairs), given the info we have so far Im very inclined to believe the latter.

[ackbleh]

I would agree with you that it's certainly the most probable explaination, but there are plenty of others. Some people go on tilt because they get bored, some are calling stations with mediocre hands but do bet their strong ones, etc.

I don't think the call/call plan is necessarily a bad one... for the farsighted gambler who's willing to accept some variance, it might be the best in terms of gaining this opponent's action longterm. But I do know that there are hands that can be misplayed by 3 barreling allin here that beat us (KJ, KT, etc), and sometimes even fish hit flops, he could actually have a real hand. While we've identified his most probable playstyle, he may have a different one. There's a lot that can go wrong.

A very interesting hand, for sure. I happen to feel that from the information given, and with a 1-tournament perspective, you should be able to play a slow first 20 hands to pick up his style and then destroy him fairly efficiently and with much less risk.

[cwar]

[ QUOTE ]

I would agree with you that it's certainly the most probable explaination, but there are plenty of others. Some people go on tilt because they get bored, some are calling stations with mediocre hands but do bet their strong ones, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]
I really dont get why people say stuff like this, if its the probable explanation theres no reason not to go with it, of course he could have the nuts or KJ/KT, we obviously expect him to play the same way with these hands, it makes no sense to worry about worst case scenarios.

Furthermore, you said it increases variance and that simply is not true in HU sngs, you either win the tournament or you lose it, you dont have to worry about things like chip variance so if the plan to call c/c the river is +EV then it DECREASES your variance as opposed to folding and missing out on the EV. Cwar out.