Omaha theory

[Bryan15]

How many outs would make a hand worth raising in position if you did not hit a pair?

[pete fabrizio]

0

[Bryan15]

so you would never raise a draw?

[cmyr]

Outs is unimportant here, relative to how you perceive your implied odds and your fold equity; I would much rather raise with an 8-outer when I think I get a fold frequently then with a 18-outer where I think my opponent is strong.


it's important to remember that playing big draws fast can be a great way to turn a very profitable situation into a coin toss.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
Outs is unimportant here, relative to how you perceive your implied odds and your fold equity; I would much rather raise with an 8-outer when I think I get a fold frequently then with a 18-outer where I think my opponent is strong.

it's important to remember that playing big draws fast can be a great way to turn a very profitable situation into a coin toss.

[/ QUOTE ]
If i've got an 18 outer on the flop, I should be raising for value. Don't care if opponent is strong or not.

[pete fabrizio]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Outs is unimportant here, relative to how you perceive your implied odds and your fold equity; I would much rather raise with an 8-outer when I think I get a fold frequently then with a 18-outer where I think my opponent is strong.

it's important to remember that playing big draws fast can be a great way to turn a very profitable situation into a coin toss.

[/ QUOTE ]
If i've got an 18 outer on the flop, I should be raising for value. Don't care if opponent is strong or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

you seem to have missed cmyr's point. raising an 18 outer for value is clearly always profitable, but just calling is sometimes much more so.

edit: the same can be said for hands like top set.

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Outs is unimportant here, relative to how you perceive your implied odds and your fold equity; I would much rather raise with an 8-outer when I think I get a fold frequently then with a 18-outer where I think my opponent is strong.

it's important to remember that playing big draws fast can be a great way to turn a very profitable situation into a coin toss.

[/ QUOTE ]
If i've got an 18 outer on the flop, I should be raising for value. Don't care if opponent is strong or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

you seem to have missed cmyr's point. raising an 18 outer for value is clearly always profitable, but just calling is sometimes much more so.

edit: the same can be said for hands like top set.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't miss his 'point', he just explained a situation where the 'point' he was trying to make, was not applicable.

[Bryan15]

If I could turn the question around a little. OOP how many outs do you feel you would need to justify a pot size call?
(I appreciate all your help, Im really trying the learn this game and all of your help is appreciated)

[chucky]

[ QUOTE ]
If I could turn the question around a little. OOP how many outs do you feel you would need to justify a pot size call?
(I appreciate all your help, Im really trying the learn this game and all of your help is appreciated)

[/ QUOTE ]

If I call OOP will I be heads up? is my opponent a nit who will fold when the a straight comes in if I bet. What type of draw outs do I have? If i have nut flush draw I'd be happier to call in a multiway pot than in if I had a straight draw where my outs are to split pots.

If you have 12 nut outs or more on the flop you cant justify folding to 1 psb.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
If I could turn the question around a little. OOP how many outs do you feel you would need to justify a pot size call?

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Bryan - I like your new question, but I don't think it has an answer.

Whether or not you have enough outs to have favorable odds to call a pot sized bet depends on whether or not you will go all in with the call. And it depends on which betting round you are talking about. And it depends on how many opponents match the money you put in. And it depends on how solid your outs are.

Let’s suppose there’s $100 in the pot, $100 just happens to be how much you have on the table in front of you, an opponent bets $100, and everybody else folds. If you call and win, you win $200. If you call and lose, you lose $100.

Hopefully it’s obvious to you that you only have to win more than one third of the time to have favorable odds to call.

If you go all-in on the flop, you see the 4 cards in your hand and the 3 cards on the board, and thus there are 45 cards whose whereabouts are unknown, and there are 990 possible different two card combinations for the turn+river. You just need at least 330 of these to be favorable for you to break even. Thus you want there to be better than 330 favorable two card combinations for you.

With 8 outs, 8*7/2+8*37=324. That’s not quite enough.

With 9 outs, 9*8/2+9*36=396. That’s more like it! Looks like you need at least 9 outs if you’re going all in against one opponent and matching a pot sized bet.
*****
Now lets suppose there’s $100 in the pot, $100 just happens to be how much you have on the table in front of you, an opponent bets $100, one other opponent calls, and everybody else folds. If you call and win, this time you win $300. If you call and lose, you still lose $100.

Hopefully it’s obvious to you that you only have to win more than one fourth of the time to have favorable odds to call.

This time we want the favorable turn/river combinations to number greater than 990/4. 248 or better looks like the number of favorable two card turn/river combinations you need.

With 6 outs, 6*5/2+6*39 = 249. That will do nicely. Looks like you need at least 6 outs if you’re going all in against two opponents and matching a pot sized bet.

And with more opponents, if you go all-in, you need still fewer outs.

But it isn’t that simple. Pot-limit Omaha is a complicated game. One obvious discrepancy is you usually won’t exactly have the amount already in the pot in front of you. And when you do, usually your outs are not 100% guaranteed to win. For example, if you have the 2nd nut flush draw, roughly one third of the time an opponent at a full table will have been dealt the nut flush draw - if you’re drawing for the nut flush and make your draw, the board may also pair, thus enabling a full house or quads.

A very important difference between Omaha and Texas Hold ‘Em is when the board pairs in Omaha, there’s a much greater probability someone has a full house.

And I figured the above from directly after the flop. After the turn, if you are heads-up, still need a card, an opponent bets the pot, and that is the exact amount you have left in front of you, then you need to win one third of the time. That's the same as above, but now there are 44 unknown cards. 44/3 = 14.7. Thus after the turn, to all-in call a pot sized bet, you need fifteen outs instead of nine.

But on the turn if you and your opponent both have chips left, you need to consider your implied pot odds. In other words, how much can you get out of your opponent on the fourth betting round if you make your hand on the river. (Figuring on the basis of implied pot odds decreases the number of outs you need - but you want to be realistic).

Going back to the flop, if you have plenty of chips left when an opponent makes a pot sized bet and a second opponent calls, it could cost you four times as much on the third betting round, for a total of five times your second betting round bet for both the second and third rounds combined.

How many outs do you need to call a pot sized bet? The answer has to be entirely dependent on the situation.

Buzz