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#51
11-24-2007, 04:33 PM
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Re: Four Ways To Use My Ideas
[ QUOTE ]
For those who don't want to wade through all this lets put it more simply. Get good at predicting what to expect the market will make a stock price. If you are right, and you disagree, and you know what you are doing, you have a certain edge. [/ QUOTE ] OK, so the key point is that identifying current mispricings is nice, but being able to identify future mispricings is even better. Sure, no one could really argue with that, and if you have that ability to a significant degree, you should be filthy rich in a short period of time. But, damn, no one seems to be talking about how hard this is. Hard is probably an understatement, impossible is probably closer to the truth. I mean, predicting the weather 3 days out is hard, predicting the S&P 500 3 days out? Think about it. Seriously. 
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#52
11-24-2007, 04:41 PM
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Re: Four Ways To Use My Ideas
I don't think you are quite getting what I'm saying. But the whole subject is on hold as we await DesertCat's disproof.
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#53
11-24-2007, 07:43 PM
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Re: Four Ways To Use My Ideas
[ QUOTE ]
OK, so the key point is that identifying current mispricings is nice, but being able to identify future mispricings is even better. [/ QUOTE ] So I think the key point David is making is that having the ability to explain the differences between your own valuation and the market price gives you an estimated error% of your own valuation. With this new metric, you should gain even a greater edge than without.
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