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Old 12-31-2005, 06:05 AM
lorinda lorinda is offline
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Default Betting tomorrow\'s Pit game during today\'s Denver game.

I believe I'm correct that if SD win today then Pit make the playoffs. If that premise is wrong then please just ignore the rest of the post and laugh at me.

It seems to me that if (and probably when) it becomes clear that SD are going to win today, one or two books may be a little tardy in changing the line for tomorrow's Pit game, and the Lions would be a cracking bet.

Just a thought.

Lori
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  #2  
Old 12-31-2005, 06:28 AM
PropPlayer PropPlayer is offline
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Default Re: Betting tomorrow\'s Pit game during today\'s Denver game.

[ QUOTE ]
I believe I'm correct that if SD win today then Pit make the playoffs.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yout belief is correct lol
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  #3  
Old 12-31-2005, 10:26 AM
playersare playersare is offline
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Default Re: Betting tomorrow\'s Pit game during today\'s Denver game.

the lions were cracking at +17 earlier in the week, and now the +14 is pretty much gone too. the next key number is 10 but I'm not sure if it's going to drop that far even if the chargers do win. they STILL are the Lions after all...
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  #4  
Old 12-31-2005, 11:05 AM
lorinda lorinda is offline
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Default Re: Betting tomorrow\'s Pit game during today\'s Denver game.

Any value in buying a point to 14/14.5 and then middling when it falls to, say, 12 would you say?

Lori
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  #5  
Old 12-31-2005, 01:07 PM
Easy E Easy E is offline
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Default Re: Betting tomorrow\'s Pit game during today\'s Denver game.

Remember "Chiefs on road"? This the same thing, except add "dome team outside on road."
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  #6  
Old 12-31-2005, 02:13 PM
playersare playersare is offline
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Default Re: Betting tomorrow\'s Pit game during today\'s Denver game.

[ QUOTE ]
Any value in buying a point to 14/14.5 and then middling when it falls to, say, 12 would you say?

[/ QUOTE ]
the best +14 I see on my board is -115 (and going fast), which is marginally playable if you can get a side or middle with very little juice on the other end. right now there's a pinnacle -13.5+102 at pinnacle, so you'd be paying half of 13c to try and win 100c if the steelers win by exactly 14, which probably falls about 6% of the time. that's about a breakeven play in the long run, just bear in mind that you will NOT make money the other 94% of games that do not hit 14.

adding the 13 would add another 2% to the push value, but the 12 is worth almost nothing in the NFL. unless you think it's going to drop down to 10, there's not a whole lot of remaining value in taking any more lead money on the Lions.

what you theorized in your OP is correct, but the market already reacted to this at the beginning of the week and everything is pretty much priced in at this point.

I would look at some of these other games that haven't moved much so far and could break on some later developments:
Bengals vs. Chiefs
Redskins vs. Eagles
Rams vs. Cowboys
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Old 12-31-2005, 05:46 PM
lorinda lorinda is offline
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Default Re: Betting tomorrow\'s Pit game during today\'s Denver game.

Thanks for all the help.

Finally I am assuming now that if Denver manages to win this, that PIT will become quite a nice bet if anything approaching -13.5 can be nabbed.

Lori
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  #8  
Old 12-31-2005, 05:51 PM
playersare playersare is offline
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Default Re: Betting tomorrow\'s Pit game during today\'s Denver game.

I thought I would be able to sell off any -13.5 if Denver got hot, but I see that many (though not necessarily all) of the major books have suspended betting on the Pitt game pending the chargers outcome. as long as you know your plan of action, just get the best that you can, when you can.
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  #9  
Old 12-31-2005, 07:51 PM
lorinda lorinda is offline
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Default Re: Betting tomorrow\'s Pit game during today\'s Denver game.

Just got Pitt -102 -13.5 on Betfair. Should be able to lay off for a profit before kickoff and if the Chargers sort this mess out, I might not be too much in the hole.

Lori
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  #10  
Old 12-31-2005, 09:22 PM
NoSoup4U NoSoup4U is offline
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Default Re: Betting tomorrow\'s Pit game during today\'s Denver game.

What a game. There are middles you can drive a truck through, like +16.5 -13.5 and a nice arb between Matchbook and Pinny at +106/+102.
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