quick turn decision

[Victor]

"the reason why many people find spots like this frustrating, is that with so little information you're basically making a high variance decision that equates to a stab in the dark."

no. the reason why this spot is a pain is bc this guy has absolutely no regard for my action. i capped the freaking flop. im screaming big jack or overpair and hes still coming at me like he has the nuts.

"you're going to need more information than "sb is 33/24/1.2 and proly a winner in the game" "

i suppose this is an example. and i could dig up other examples now that you made me think about it. i feel this guy doesnt read hands too well and overvalues certain holdings. or maybe its a genius play. i folded. at sd they chopped, both holding qj. so was his play genius?

hes reppin a duece or j8 or maybe 88 or jj. does he know thats what hes reppin? or is he thinking duhhh top pair bet.

whats my range in his eyes? overpair, tj to aj or flush draw (i doubt i cap the fd but maybe with ak.) is his play genius bc he knows that i wont raise the turn after given action with just an overpair? should i be raising overpairs here?

[cartman]

I can't imagine your flop cap being a good idea unless you are doing it for the express purpose of forcing them into behaving honestly on the turn. If you have any dilemma about how to handle a turn donk by sb or a turn raise by either of them, then your flop cap was probably a bad idea in my opinion.

[The Bryce]

[ QUOTE ]
"the reason why many people find spots like this frustrating, is that with so little information you're basically making a high variance decision that equates to a stab in the dark."

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
no. the reason why this spot is a pain is bc this guy has absolutely no regard for my action. i capped the freaking flop. im screaming big jack or overpair and hes still coming at me like he has the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
hes reppin a duece or j8 or maybe 88 or jj. does he know thats what hes reppin? or is he thinking duhhh top pair bet.

whats my range in his eyes? overpair, tj to aj or flush draw (i doubt i cap the fd but maybe with ak.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you see why? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] You're entirely unable to put the player's actions into any sort of narrow context. This is a weird spot that you'll never get to experience that much, so it's not like you can make an accurate judgment based on a large sample of past experience. If you were really familiar with the player in question you would sometimes fold here or sometimes raise (and maybe sometimes call). You don't have that information.

I think the last 3 "strat" posts I've made in MHUSH (spread out over like the last 4 months) have all amounted to something like this. The point is that in the typical message board discussion format there should be a type of reply which comes up all the time but never does, and it should basically read: "You don't have enough information to make an accurate decision." Sometimes this means you're guilty of not paying enough attention and sometimes it just means that you're going to FUBAR the hand a lot no matter what you do.

[Victor]

wow, thats a lot of words for saying nothing.

"You're entirely unable to put the player's actions into any sort of narrow context"

i disagree. any reasonable player should have aj at the least here and i still think that leading aj is garbage. i think villain played it bad and has tendencies of a poor player. convince me otherwise?

[The Bryce]

[ QUOTE ]
i disagree. any reasonable player should have aj at the least here and i still think that leading aj is garbage.

[/ QUOTE ]

Except you don't seem to know whether content of the term "reasonable player" applies to your opponent here. In short, you have no idea what he's capable of doing so you can't make a good decision.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]


flop is 22j with 2 diamonds.

sb bets, bb calls, i raise, co 3bets, sb calls, bb folds, i cap.


[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't that bet... lots of action... forget to raise when it gets back to him... bet the turn line usually top pair that's defending against the free card play but doesn't want to put in too much money?

Guy.

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
"You don't have enough information to make an accurate decision."

[/ QUOTE ]

In my opinion no response is usually (not always) better than that one. There is often too much focus on what to do in the specific hand posted vs the specific opponents involved and not enough focus on the conceptual reasons for the answer and how the answer may or may not change for related situations or other opponent types. When I used to post hands, I would always intentionally make the reads vague because I wanted to discuss which line was best vs which opponents and why instead of just have everyone's opinion of that unique situation.

[The Bryce]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"You don't have enough information to make an accurate decision."

[/ QUOTE ]

In my opinion no response is usually (not always) better than that one. There is often too much focus on what to do in the specific hand posted vs the specific opponents involved and not enough focus on the conceptual reasons for the answer and how the answer may or may not change for related situations or other opponent types. When I used to post hands, I would always intentionally make the reads vague because I wanted to discuss which line was best vs which opponents and why instead of just have everyone's opinion of that unique situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering how strongly I disagree with this viewpoint you can see why I never post these days. I think the message boar discussion, as used, is generally a pretty weak tool. It's not hard to break most of the questions down mathematically yourself and all you have to do after that point is plug in your assumptions about the player's actions and see what's going to have the highest yield, so I obviously think poker is generally pretty judgment-intensive (unless you're playing 10 handed or something like that and there are really tight mathematical strictures on what cards your opponents can be playing).

[Victor]

cartman says "focus on the conceptual reasons for the answer and how the answer may or may not change for related situations or other opponent types"

bryce says "ll you have to do after that point is plug in your assumptions about the player's actions and see what's going to have the highest yield, so I obviously think poker is generally pretty judgment-intensive "

im having a hard time understanding how these statements differ.

[The Bryce]

Cartman is saying you should try and make a speculative read and I'm saying that you don't have enough data to make any sort of substantial speculation: aka shot in the dark. I'm further saying that it all boils down to experience: in this hand you don't have enough experience with what people do here in general given this "class" of player (weird spot = too small a sample size) and you don't have enough experience with the player to make any sense of the data available. I'm then saying that this sort of speculative-judgment oriented discussion isn't productive, because it does hinge on experience and open discussion isn't really a substitute for that. Most likely no one's played this spot a few hundred times in the context set by the data in the OP. The best you can do here is "players in general are sometimes stupid so I should get to showdown."